As we mentioned in the Early Look this morning, we are beginning to proactively prepare for a Barak Obama victory in three weeks. The polls, news flow and every incremental data point seem to point to an Obama victory. In our opinion, this is a victory that could easily morph into a landslide.
The most recent national poll, from CBS-NY Times, has Obama with a 14-point lead at 53 – 39 in likely voters. This poll is obviously an outlier, but a noteworthy call out in that the last time this poll was taken, seven days ago, Obama only had a lead of 3-point lead in the poll.
The other indicators we are focused on include:
• The Real Clear Politics national poll average now that has Obama leading by 8-points and, for the first time ever, Obama is polling above 50% in the average;
• The Real Clear Politics electoral college poll average now has Obama/Biden at 313, McCain/Palin at 159, and Toss Ups at 67, so even if all states currently categorized as Toss Ups swing to McCain he will lose; and
• The Intrade Market now has Obama trading at 80.1, which means that if you buy Obama you only get a payout of 19.9 if he wins.
Absent an “October surprise” between now and November 4th, an Obama victory is almost a sure thing. The impact of this Obama momentum will also be felt in the congressional races. Increasingly, an expanding Democratic majority in the House and the potential for a filibuster proof majority for the Democrats in the Senate. Incidentally, the last time the Democrats won the Presidency, had a majority in the House, and filibuster proof majority in the Senate was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
While we could easily make the case that Barak Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter, the current Republican administration is hardly differentiating themselves as free market capitalists. As Allan Mendlowitz very aptly stated: “The Bush administration, which took office as social conservatives, is now leaving as conservative socialists.”
Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director
The most recent national poll, from CBS-NY Times, has Obama with a 14-point lead at 53 – 39 in likely voters. This poll is obviously an outlier, but a noteworthy call out in that the last time this poll was taken, seven days ago, Obama only had a lead of 3-point lead in the poll.
The other indicators we are focused on include:
• The Real Clear Politics national poll average now that has Obama leading by 8-points and, for the first time ever, Obama is polling above 50% in the average;
• The Real Clear Politics electoral college poll average now has Obama/Biden at 313, McCain/Palin at 159, and Toss Ups at 67, so even if all states currently categorized as Toss Ups swing to McCain he will lose; and
• The Intrade Market now has Obama trading at 80.1, which means that if you buy Obama you only get a payout of 19.9 if he wins.
Absent an “October surprise” between now and November 4th, an Obama victory is almost a sure thing. The impact of this Obama momentum will also be felt in the congressional races. Increasingly, an expanding Democratic majority in the House and the potential for a filibuster proof majority for the Democrats in the Senate. Incidentally, the last time the Democrats won the Presidency, had a majority in the House, and filibuster proof majority in the Senate was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
While we could easily make the case that Barak Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter, the current Republican administration is hardly differentiating themselves as free market capitalists. As Allan Mendlowitz very aptly stated: “The Bush administration, which took office as social conservatives, is now leaving as conservative socialists.”
Daryl G. Jones
Managing Director
