TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - June 1, 2011
Overnight Asia turned in a mixed performance, while Europe and the futures are headed lower. On the MACRO front, we are looking at another day of where the data points will be uninspiring. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.13% downside to 1330 and 0.43% upside to 1351.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1577 (+198)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1515.01 (+118.72%)
- VIX: 15.45 -3.32% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.96%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.61 from 1.20 (+33.89%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 19.70
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
- 10-Year: 3.05 from 3.07
- YIELD CURVE: 2.60 from 2.59
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.1%
- 7:30 a.m.: Challenger job cuts, prior (-4.8%)
- 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment, est. 175k, prior 179k
- 10 a.m.: Construction spending, est. M/m 0.3%, prior 1.4%
- 10 a.m.: ISM Manufacturing, est. 57.1, prior 60.4
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b 4-wk bills, $24b 52-wk bills
- 4:30 p.m.: API inventories
WHAT TO WATCH:
- EU said to consider incentives for Greek debt rollovers -- wires
- Greek Central Bank Governor Provopoulos dismissed scenarios that Greece could leave the Euro and return to the Drachma -- Reuters
- Sinking housing prices threaten to derail economic recovery - WSJ
- Coca-Cola interested in listing in China - Reuters
- Car companies finalising large investment plans for Russia - WSJ
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Shipping Rates Seen Dropping as French Wheat Cargoes Sink: Freight Markets
- Oil Trades Near 3-Week High on U.S. Supply; MF Global Says $105 Possible
- Gold May Decline in London Trading on Outlook for Greece Debt Resolution
- U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Coin Sales Through May Are the Highest Since 1986
- Cattle ‘Being Tortured’ in Indonesia, Australian Senator Says, Urging Ban
- Bonds Losing to Bullion With Inflation at a Three-Year High: China Credit
- Copper in London May Drop After Reports Signal China Manufacturng Slowdown
- Rubber Declines as Slowing China Manufacturing Growth Dims Demand Outlook
- U.S. House Committee Approves Department of Agriculture Spending Proposal
- China Drought Parches Fish Farms, May Cut Feed Sales, Citic Futures Says
- China’s Millionaire Ranks Leap Past a Million as Legacy of Communism Fades
- Power Thieves Keep 400 Million Indians in Dark as Singh Misses Energy Goal
- Billionaire Adani May Sell a 20% Stake in Coal-Mining Unit in London IPO
- Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Gold Declines as Greece Default Concern Eases
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- European indices are trading lower on disappointing May Manufacturing PMI numbers accross Europe.
- UK April mortgage approval 45.166k vs consensus 47.500k and prior revised 47.145k; Uk April mortgage lending +0.7B vs consensus +0.7B and prior +0.5B
- Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs consensus 54.8 and prior 54.8
- Germany May Manufacturing PMI 57.7 vs consensus 58.2 and prior 58.2
- France May Manufacturing PMI 54.9 vs consensus 55.0 and prior 55.0
- France Q1 ILO jobless rate +9.7% vs Q4 +9.7%
- UK May Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs consensus 54.1 and prior revised to 54.4 from 54.6
ASIAN MARKETS
- China May PMI 52.0 vs April 52.9.
- Australia Q1 GDP (1.2%) q/q vs survey (1.1%), +1.0% y/y, matching expectations. Q4 GDP revised to 0.8% q/q vs initial +0.7%.
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
