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It looks like Macau total gaming revenues will come in around HK$23 billion for May, up 39%. 

Through the 29th, table revenues were just under HK$21 billion.  Add in 2 more days of table revenues and slot revenues of HK$950 million to get to our full month projection.  Business definitely slowed over the past week, dropping to HK$544 million per day versus HK$775 million last week (the first week of Galaxy Macau).  Indeed, total gaming revenues will fall at the low end of our previous estimate of HK$23-24 billion.  We don’t know yet if hold played a part.

There were some surprising shifts in market share post the Galaxy Macau opening.  Not surprisingly, most Macau operators lost share – the exception being Galaxy and MGM.  MGM is off to a solid start in Q2 and should report a strong first Q out of the blocks of its IPO.  The biggest surprise to the Street may be that Wynn lost the most share.  Low hold probably played the biggest role but Wynn Macau/Encore has the highest VIP revenue per table, so theoretically the most to lose.  Galaxy is a pretty fierce VIP competitor and may be going after Wynn’s lucrative VIP business.  We’re pretty sure Galaxy Macau was very aggressive in providing junket liquidity/credit through the opening.

From what we can glean from the limited data, Galaxy Macau is off to a great start.  Even after normalizing the current pace somewhat and including cannibalization of Starworld, ROI appears to be trending well above the 20% bogey.  However, it is still very early.

Here is the latest data:

MACAU SLOWS IN 2ND WEEK AFTER GALAXY OPENING; WYNN LOSES A LOT OF SHARE - macau1