450: The Magic Number in Europe

Chalk up Burberry as the latest retailer to post a 400-500bp sequential slowdown in European sales. Consistency across consumer is astounding. Hi-end, low-end, sport, fashion…no one is immune.

The only region that was positive was the Americas – and that was driven in part by FX. Not good. This is happening despite what we saw today -- the UK printing a surprisingly inflationary consumer inflation report for September of +5.2% y/y. That’s the highest inflation rate they have shown us since 1997, and this has happened despite commodities melting down. Why? Well, it’s pretty straightforward… currency has been in free fall, and that imports inflation. I’m not banking on Western Europe retail getting better near-term.