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Initial Claims Climb 15k

The headline initial claims number rose 15k WoW to 424k (10k after a 4k upward revision to last week’s data).  Rolling claims fell 1.75k to 439k. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims rose 14k WoW.

It's No Coincidence That Claims Are at YTD Highs While XLF is at YTD Lows

We use claims as our primary frequency determinant in thinking about losses for the consumer book of balance sheet dependent financials. Thus, it is a critical signal that we remain right around the YTD high in rolling claims. The last time we saw such an inflection in the trend in jobless claims was summer 2010, a period in which the XLF lost roughly 20% of its value. Even with the XLF underperforming, we remain cautious given this continuing development on the jobs front. Specifically, it's our expectation that claims will, at best, stagnate post QE2's end and, at worst, rise. To this end, take a look at our fifth chart showing the overlay of jobless claims with S&P 500. The current divergence is among the widest we've seen in the last few years suggesting that either the market is due for a significant correction in the near-term or claims should fall precipitously in the next few weeks.

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - rolling

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - raw

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - nsa

Two relationships that we are watching closely are the tight correlation between the S&P and claims and between Fed purchases (Treasuries & MBS) and claims.  With the end of QE2 looming, to the extent that this relationship is causal, it is quite concerning. 

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - fed an

 

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - s p

 

Yield Curve Remains Wide

We chart the 2-10 spread as a proxy for NIM. Thus far the spread in 2Q is tracking 9 bps tighter than 1Q.  The current level of 260 bps is 3 bps tighter than last week.

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - 2 10

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - spreads QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

CLAIMS REMAIN CLOSE TO YTD HIGHS, WITH QE2 END IN SIGHT AUGURING FOR A FURTHER BACKUP - perf

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur