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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - May 26, 2011


Mean reversion bounces to lower-highs across all of the big macro stuff that matters (Euro, Oil, SPX futures, etc), but nothing has changed in terms of the big lines in the sand that ultimately matter – primarily USD support and UST yield resistance.

  1. USD immediate-term TRADE range = 75.65-76.26 (wants to make higher-lows and higher immediate-term highs)
  2. Euro immediate-term TRADE range is tight = 1.39-1.41, with $1.41 being its new TREND line of resistance
  3. Oil immediate-term TRADE range = 96.89-101.57, so we’re looking at shorting oil ahead of another USD rally


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.79% downside to 1310 and 0.65% upside to 1329.









  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 934 (+1172)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 961.30 (+10.70%)
  • VIX:  17.07 -4.21% YTD PERFORMANCE: -3.83%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.30 from 1.84 (-29.07%)



  • TED SPREAD: 20.89
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 3.13 from 3.12
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.61 from 2.61 



  • 8:30 a.m.: GDP Q/Q: 2.2%, prior 1.8%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales, cotton, corn, soybean
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 404k, prior 409k
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg consumer comfort, est. (-47.0), prior (-49.4)
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA natural gas storage change, est. 95, prior 92
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 7-year notes 


  • Google holds press conference in NY; may discuss mobile- payments system, Digital Trends says
  • NY Fed said to probe Goldman Sachs’s mortgage allegations: FT
  • Marriott expects to recognize several hundred million dollars in cash tax benefits from the spin off of its timeshare business
  • Bank of America pressured by states to change mortgage practices - Bloomberg
  • CEO Mark Zuckerberg says Facebook "[doesn't] have the DNA to be a music company or movie company" - GigaOM
  • Starbucks raises bagged coffee prices by 17% - WSJ - The WSJ reports that the price increase will take effect 12-Jul, and comes after they raised supermarket bagged coffee 12% in March.






  • Global Food Production May Be Hurt as Climate Shifts, UN Forecaster Says
  • Oil Falls From Two-Week High in New York on Bets That Recovery Is Too Slow
  • Wheat Gains for Second Day on Concern Dry Weather in Europe Damaged Crops
  • Gold Falls as China Bond-Buying Speculation Curbs Demand; Silver Declines
  • Sugar Rises for Third Day on Indications of Stronger Demand; Coffee Gains
  • Copper May Rise in London Trading on Prospects for U.S. Demand on Growth
  • Platinum Surplus Seen Jumping Eightfold After Japan Quake Cuts Car Output
  • Gold Companies May Face $100 Billion Liability for Ill South Africa Miners
  • Rusal Leads $10 Billion Borrowing in Metal Producer Revival: Russia Credit
  • Rail-Car Orders at 13-Year High Ratify Buffett’s U.S. Bet: Freight Markets
  • ‘Stressed’ Carbon Credits Drawing Record Demand in Europe: Energy Markets
  • Natural Rubber Output Growth to Miss Estimate This Year, Association Says







  • EUROPE: soggy Kleenex this morn w/ DAX, Denmark, and Russia all flagging negative divergences - not what the bulls need to see (sold Sweden)
  • Switzerland calls for phasing out of country's five nuclear reactors - FT
  • Germany Apr Import Prices +9.4% y/y vs consensus +9.9% and prior +11.3%
  • France May Consumer Confidence 84 vs consensus 83





  • ASIA: wicked volatility off yesterdays bombed out lows; Vietnam +3%, KOSPI +2.8% - but China down for 4th day of 4 this wk; India still lags
  • Japan April corporate services price index (0.8%) y/y, (0.1%) m/m









Howard Penney

Managing Director

RL: Great Company/Strategy, Bad Stock



The 4Q print changes nothing related to our long-term call re: $9 in EPS power. But RL’s response to inflation and reinvestment in new product – while positive strategically -- hits our intermediate-term (TREND) model and view. Short-term (TRADE), we wouldn’t touch this name. There’ll be a chance to buy this great business at a far better price.


This is a name where we fundamentally believe in where the company is headed strategically. But with industry fundamentals starting to crack, RL’s valuation simply defying gravity – already representing the $8-$9 in earnings power we think it has over the course of 2-3 years -- and the inevitability of RL’s perennial ‘guide down and smoke’ philosophy finally catching up with it, we’re actually surprised it was not down far more on the day. This is a great brand and a great business. But at $114.70, we don’t think it will be a great stock. We’ll look forward to buying this one back lower.


Changes to our Thesis

We think it’s best to tear this beast apart by duration, and then see how today’s event altered this one way or another.


Long-Term (TAIL): This quarter changed not a thing. Now that RL has complete control of its geographic and product licenses, it can consistently take up product mix to higher end apparel and accessories, take this brand from $15bn at retail up to $20bn. Ultimately we’ll be looking at upwards of $9 in EPS power and 25% RNOA within 3-years. In fact, it’s quarters like this where RL is not afraid to take it on the chin with margins in order to sustain profitable top line growth in the outer years that separate it from the pack.


Intermediate-Term (TREND): Definitely some moving parts here. The company may have only missed the consensus by $0.04, but it missed our estimate by $0.20. Every line of the model was spot on, except for wholesale margins. Part of this was more delivering from the holiday shift than we anticipated (part of which should make itself whole in the current quarter). In addition, we were definitely not anticipating RL’s response to inflation. Specifically, it only took up prices on high end product, and left prices on lower/mid product unchanged – hence absorbing the margin squeeze. On one hand we could argue that this is good for retail partners as RL is being rational and is not strong-arming the chain. But on the flip side, it will compress the perceived value gap between its’ product and that of the competition. Good for Ralph, bad for competition. Questionable for the industry.


It also invested in a new high-end denim label for both men and women as well as a its bedding and bath business. Lesser companies would pull back on investing in this kind of environment. Not RL. That said, we still need to take down our EPS estimates for this year – though it does not jeopardize our $9 3-year number.


Immediate-Term (TRADE): We wouldn’t touch RL here on a TRADE duration. We’re quite surprised it did not trade off more meaningfully on this miss. This company never misses. Check out the chart below. It shows a few things…a) for a given quarter, where the Street’s estimate were before management guided, b) where estimates shook out after they guided, and c) what RL ultimately printed. That’s OK if you’re like VFC where you do it by a few pennies at a clip. This is the ultimate ‘guide down and beat’ company. But RL does it by 20-30%. The good news is that it’s almost always to the upside. But that has become the norm. The bad news is that the sentiment has gotten to a point where RL needed to beat by a certain amount to avoid going down. With the stock having outperformed retail (RTH) by 12% and the S&P by 15%, respectively, for the year-to date, we’ve been concerned that this would catch up with them. Given the weakness we expect to see in the broader retail space throughout the remainder of this year, we can’t imagine that anyone will give retailers’ multiples – even RL’s – the benefit of the doubt.


RL: Great Company/Strategy, Bad Stock - Snag1




  • Sales: 1.4 billion +7%
  • Wholesale segment: +2%
    • Strong growth in U.S.  wholesale shipments
    • Continued growth in foreign department stores
      • Offset by a planned decline in Japanese wholesale shipments
      • Softness in some European specialty stores
      • Wholesale operating income: 136 million
        • The operating profit margin declined 670 basis points
        • The decline in margin rate is primarily attributable to the cost of goods inflation, lower Japanese wholesale shipments and continued investment in new merchandise categories.
        •  Retail:+14%
          • Comparable store sales increased +7% 
          • (excluding sales at the Asian stores and concessions shops that we assumed in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. *These sales will be included in  comps getting in the first quarter of fiscal 2012)
          • Retail segment operating income: +40%
            • Operating margin improved 80 basis points
            • Licensing:  -6% 
              • Higher fragrance licensing revenues were more than offset by a decline in international licensing revenues related  to the South Korea transition. Consolidated inventory was at 39% at the at the end of the fourth


  • Total Comparable Store Sales
  • Consolidated Comps up +7% reflecting:
    • 8% increase at factory stores
    • 10% growth at Club Monaco
    • RalphLauren.com sales increased 21%
    • The 3% decline in Ralph Lauren comps during the first quarter is due to HSD reduction in Japanese operations. Excluding Japan, Ralph Lauren comps were flat


  • Gross Margin 56.8%
  • Some of the inflationary cost of goods pressure we experienced in the fourth quarter was offset by a higher level of full price selling at most of the retail concepts and this seasonal variation in overall channel mix.


  • Operating Expenses: $693 million +12%
  • Operating expense margin rose 240 basis points to 48.6% in the fourth quarter reflecting incremental expenses associated with the recently transitioned South Korean operations,


  • Operating Income:117 million -32%
  • Primarily do the calendar shifts affecting the comparability of the period.


  • Effective tax rate in was 34.4%
  • Was approximately 250 basis points higher


  • Net income: +$73 million
  • Impact from Japanese earthquake was $0.02 on 4Q earnings.


  • Balance Sheet
  • Inventory: +39% reflecting;
    • Inventory this time last year was very low. So the comparable period was understated and this period inventory overstated.
    • The transition of the Southeast Asia and greater China region and South Korean inventory was incremental this year versus last year.
    • The remaining quarter of the increase is attributable to cost of goods inflation and foreign-currency  dynamics.
    •  CapEx:~$255 million reflecting;
      • Support  of retail stores
      • Wholesale shop development worldwide
      • Continued infrastructure investment.
      • Repurchased approximately 6 million shares of stock for an aggregate of 578 notary during the year including two million shares for $247 million during the fourth quarter.
      • board authorized an additional $500 million for share repurchase
        •  Cash position: 1 billion


  • Other 
  • Next 3 years company intends to invest over $1 billion in total capital to continue advancing  strategic objectives.
    •  $500 million in capital we intend to invest over the next 3 years for
    • Concession shops
    • Continued development of global e-commerce
    • *Nearly 70% of this capital will be allocated to international markets.
    • Company believes it will generate over $3.5 billion of EBITDA over the next 3 years
    • The company finished assuming control of distribution in South Korea during the fourth quarter
    • Completed the last phase of multi-year mission to bring Asian operations in-house


  • Japan
  • China and South Korea concessions shops performed better than anticipated during the quarter. Japan sales were down approximately 30% in the weeks following the  earthquake and tsunami compared to the relatively flat performance in the quarter to date period prior to the disaster.


  • Easter Shift
  • There was an extra 53rd week that in results last year in the fourth quarter and a later Easter week this year that shifted that holiday sales growth  into the first quarter of fiscal 2012 versus the fourth quarter that we are reporting now.
  • There was also the timing of the high volumes sales week post-Christmas that fell within the third quarter of fiscal 2011 compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010.
  • On a normalized calendar basis, the shifts negatively affected sales growth in the quarter by approximately 10 full percentage points.


  • Cost pressures
  • Company made pricing adjustment by brand and region to help mitigate inflationary pressures.
    • Pricing change does not completely offset higher costs.
    • "In general, we've determined not to not to pass on the full impact of our higher cost of goods and the magnitude of inflation is such that we do expect our gross profit margin and our operating margin to be down in 2012."
    • "We believe the customer, the consumer will accept some higher prices due to the strength of our brand and the consistent quality of our merchandise but after a decade of apparel deflation the actual customer reaction remains unknown until the merchandise is available for sale in stores."


  • Outlook
  • First Quarter
    • Sales: Increase in the mid 20% range
    • Wholesale expected to grow at low 20%
    • Retail expected to grow faster.
    • Comparable store sales are projected to increase by LDD
    • Operating Margin: flat


  • Fiscal Year 2012
  • Sales: Increase in the mid teens range
  • Retail expected to grow faster than wholesale
  • Operating Margin: down 150bps
  • Tax rate is estimated at 33%
  • CapEx: expected to be 325million




SG&A Growth Spending:

-        Excludes any restructuring charges related to repositioning in China

-        Expect to leverage operating expenses

-        Continue to invest in infrastructure and advertising – expect these to continue


SG&A Flex Dependent on Sales:

-        Retail is growing faster than wholesale

-        Strategy in growing Asia is primarily driven by growing the retail base vs. wholesale distribution

-        Key for the company has been that they have invested on high return opportunities over the last several years, which is what is driving sales today


Input Cost Flow Through:

-        If you look at run-rate for Q3, adj Q4, and Q1 outlook, top-line trend is strong

-        Did not take many price increases in the spring, but have for fall

-        Those increases dependent on price of product and merchandise categories

  • Range from LSD to mid-twenty percent increases
  • Some of bigger cost inflation was realized in lower end of product quality pyramid

-        Believe cost increases will begin to moderate in Spring of 2012

-        Not going to alter cut or quality of product


Pricing by Categories:

-        A bit more cautious in lower end categories where consumers are more sensitive to price inflation

-        Not determined by gender


Club Monaco/Rugby – Int’l Expansion:

-        Club Monaco growing in success

-        Have had many retailers in Europe looking to carry the line

-        The European partners feel that they can carry it in proper distribution channels as well as at stand alone locations – test this February in Browns of London extremely successful

-        Believe CM represents a substantial opportunity in Europe – will be opening first store in Europe in London later this year

-        Rugby expansion also targeted in Europe


Denim Launch:

-        Denim will be reintroduced in 250 stores in US and Canada in both Men’s and women’s

-        the Denim & Supply business in Europe will replace the existing Polo Jeans Co. business closed 4yrs ago


Domestic Business:

-        Historical target of 1/3 of business from domestic/Eur/China increasingly challenged given the strength of domestic business



-        Japan and South Korean business are heavily dominated by department store shop-in-shops

-        In Japan, have seen a very positive response as the company has ‘elevated’ both women’s and kid’s product categories – more logoed pieces

-        In Korea, added a very strong team that came on with acquisition

-        Have been replenishing new inventory over last 5-months

-        Customer has responded well to new fashion

-        Much of demand driven by Chinese coming to Korea for shopping weekends given the currency arb

-        China/Dixon acquisition required RL to build the region from scratch

-        Also more stand alone retail


Expanding Home Category:

-        Began shipping in May

-        Focus on Bed and Bath

-        Have been working hard on this over the last 2-years ramping more recently

-        Have recently added lighting and rugs

-        All changes team has made have been received very well


Margin Outlook:

-        SG&A outlook suggests significant ramp due to Korea build out

-        Also to support new initiatives like home

-        Expanding e-commerce distribution (Europe and exploring Asia)

-        Additional international growth opportunities


Korea Impact:

-        Dilutive in Q4, accretive in F12


Japanese Business/Travel & Tourism:

-        Japanese business hardest hit 2-months following tsunami disaster, travel and tourism still down dramatically

-        Chinese having difficulty obtaining visas to travel to US so going to Europe instead

-        Starting to see improvement in ‘mood’ of Japanese shopper

-        Headline issue is the Chinese tourist shifting from US to Europe where RL doesn’t capture as much business

JCP: Convergence Boosts Conviction

KM re-shorted JCP today. Recall that he covered in advance of storytelling around Ira Sohn today. Apparently, this is not materializing. The margin risk here is meaningful, as it's at the center of the bullseye as the industry margin structure cracks. Check out the $0.12 gap between TRADE and TREND lines. Convergence makes this one of our best shorts.


JCP: Convergence Boosts Conviction - Snag

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Ay! Mexico’s Going to Miss

Conclusion: We are inclined to short Mexican equities on rallies in our Virtual Portfolio due to the combination of slowing domestic growth and slowing growth in its key export market (US). Fairly robust growth expectations need to be reset lower on all fronts.


Position: Bearish on Mexican Equities for the intermediate-term TREND.


Up until recently, Mexico has been boring to cover. With an economic cycle that closely tracks the US’s (lagging by about 1Q on average), there really hasn’t been much to talk about since our mid-February update. While not always the case, getting US growth story right will typically lead you to the promised land on Mexico (80% of Mexican exports go to the US in the form of automobiles, appliances, and, of course, crude oil). In fact, over the last 27 months, Mexico’s benchmark IPC Index has traded with a positive correlation of r² = 0.92 to the XLY and a positive correlation of r² = 0.91 to the XLP on a weekly closing price basis.


Ay! Mexico’s Going to Miss - 1


Ay! Mexico’s Going to Miss - 2


Needless to say, as the US consumer goes, so goes Mexico. And given that we authored the call on US Growth Slowing, as well as the Consumption Cannonball thesis, it would make sense for us to have a bearish bias on Mexican stocks – which we do, of course.


While the aforementioned factors are certainly supportive of being short/underweight Mexican equities, there is more to the thesis. As we pointed out in a report yesterday afternoon titled, “Hong Kong is Not Mainland China”, investors can indeed find themselves caught off guard as a result of playing surrogate investments based on trailing correlation studies. So in the essence of managing risk, we’ll quickly dive into the additional reasons that we are bearish on Mexican equities over the intermediate-term TREND.


Growth is Slowing; Expectations Need to Come Down


With the IPC Index down -8.2% YTD and broken from a TRADE & TREND perspective in our quantitative models alongside Mexico’s sovereign bond yields 10Y-2Y spread falling -45bps since peaking in Feb, PRICE is definitively telling us that growth is slowing south of the border. While not at all news to our Hedgeyes, we think many investors and policy makers alike will be surprised to the downside in coming quarters: 

  • Earlier this month, Mexico’s Central Bank raised its 2011 GDP forecast to +4-5% YoY from a previous range of +3.8-4.8% YoY, citing domestic consumption and private investment as reasons for the increase;
  • Last month, Mexico’s Finance Ministry increased its 2011 GDP forecast to +4.3% YoY from a previous forecast of +4% YoY, citing a “strong US growth” leading a rebound in Mexican exports;
  • Last month, the IMF raised its 2011 Mexican GDP forecast to +4.6% YoY from a previous forecast of +4.2% YoY; and
  • In the last three weeks alone, the Bloomberg Consensus forecast for Mexico’s 2011 GDP has shot up from +4% YoY to +4.4%. 

Ay! Mexico’s Going to Miss - 3


It seems everyone is bullish on Mexican growth except us… and the data, of course: 

  • Industrial Production growth slowed in March to +4.2% YoY vs. a prior reading of +5.2%;
  • IMEF Manufacturing Index fell in April to 53.1 vs. a prior reading of 54.1;
  • IMEF New Manufacturing Orders Index fell in April to 55.4 vs. a prior reading of 59.1;
  • Export growth slowed in April to +12.6% YoY vs. a prior reading of +20.1%;
  • Import growth slowed in April to +9.8% YoY vs. a prior reading of +16.3%;
  • Trade Balance growth slowed in April to +$665M YoY vs. +$1.1B;
  • INEGI Consumer Confidence Index ticked down to 89.7 in April vs. a prior reading of 91.7; and
  • INEGI Retail Sales growth slowed in Mar to +1% YoY vs. a prior reading of +2.7%. 

On the “glass half full” side of things, Mexico’s current +3.4% YoY CPI reading is running a near five-year low and Mexico’s Unemployment Rate ticked down to a 27-month low of 4.6% in March. In our opinion, the US rolling over from a top-down perceptive calls into question the sustainability of further improvement in Mexican employment statistics (which are a lagging indicator anyway). Our models don’t produce an overly malignant output for Mexican CPI, but we do think the probability of it bouncing off multi-year lows and surprising our “high” scenario is a risk to consider, given that Mexico’s benchmark policy rate has remained at an all-time low of 4.5% for the last two-plus years.


All told, we are inclined to short Mexican equities on rallies in our Virtual Portfolio due to the combination of slowing domestic growth and slowing growth in its key export market (US). Fairly robust growth expectations need to be reset lower on all fronts.


Darius Dale



Ay! Mexico’s Going to Miss - 4 

Gravity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: no position in SPY


No position could very well change by the end of the day/week. I am predisposed to be short here, but I need to manage that risk. The US stock market has been down for 3 consecutive days and 4 consecutive weeks, so mean reversion is a relevant bullish factor to consider.


What I am doing right here and now (1PM EST) is waiting and watching on a confirmation of a TREND line breakdown in the SP500 (1322). It’s already been confirmed by a broader intermediate-term TREND breakdown in the Russell2000 and many other Global Equity market barometers (Nikkei, Sensex, Hang Seng, FTSE, CAC, IBEX, etc). These breakdowns coincide with Global Growth Slowing.


Under most free market scenarios, a SUPPLY (more stocks for sale), DEMAND (growth slowing), and PRICE (TREND line breakdown) model should suffice. However, Americans have signed off on the 4th factor (The Bernank) and, while that’s sad, it’s still a very relevant risk.


What could the Fiat Fools do to keep this market levitating on low-volume above our intermediate-term TREND line of 1322? That’s easy - blow up the US Dollar. The USD is down today, so stocks are up – barely.


And that’s the longer-term point - defying the laws of SUPPLY/DEMAND/PRICE (or gravity) can only convince people for so long  - and that’s why this market is still bearish on its longest of long-term TAIL durations (resistance = 1377, a lower long-term high)


If gravity takes over (1322 doesn’t hold), 1308 is now your immediate-term downside target of support.



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Gravity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1

Intellectual Honesty

This note was originally published at 8am on May 20, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I think we are very good at intellectual honesty.”

-Seth Klarman


I was flying to Kansas City from Denver last night and an outstanding interview in the Financial Analysts Journal bubbled up to the top of my pile – an interview with one of the world’s most thoughtful Risk Managers, Baupost’s Seth Klarman.


“We actually hire for intellectual honesty. In an interview, we work hard to see whether people can admit mistakes. We hold our people accountable to that standard.” (Klarman, “Ahead Of Print”, 2010 CFA Institute)


Accountability. Honesty. Standards.


That works for me and, from what I can tell, it works for a lot of our clients who understand that there is a difference between running a P&L and running a business. There’s a difference between rigorous research and disciplined risk management too. The best teams in this business do both.


“We have all our own money invested in the firm, and so we are very conservative. We have picked our poison. We would rather underperform in a huge bull market than get clobbered in a really bad bear market.” (Klarman, “Ahead Of Print”, 2010 CFA Institute)


Ownership. Preservation. Conviction.


Those principles work for me too.


“We ask people, what is the biggest mistake you’ve ever made? It’s a very open-ended question because it’s not solely an investment question, although prospective hires often answer it as if it were.” (Klarman, “Ahead Of Print”, 2010 CFA Institute)




Back to the Global Macro Morning Grind


In the face of awful US Economic data yesterday:

  1. CONFIDENCE: Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index dropped to a fresh YTD low of -49.4 vs -46.9 last week.
  2. HOUSING: US Existing Home Sales  fell -0.8% for April, dropping from 5.09 million in March (seasonally adjusted annualized) to 5.05 in April.  This is a sharp divergence from the March Pending Home Sales, which increased 5.1% month-over-month.
  3. GDP GROWTH: US Leading Indicators for April were down (0.3%) sequentially vs. +0.7% in March (the sharpest decline in well over a year)

And … with the US Dollar down on the day… the inverse relationship (The Correlation Risk) between Fiat Fool policy and stocks continued to hold (USD down = stocks up). The US stock market was able to hold a +22 basis point gain. With the SP500 closing at 1343, it’s down -1.5% from its April 2011 YTD high, and down -14.2% from its October 2007 all-time high.


You mean, on alarmingly low-volume, the mistakes we’ve all made between late 2007 (where I got bearish too early) and early 2011 (where consensus has been too bullish on US Growth) has only equated to lower immediate-term and long-term highs in US stocks? Yep. This special case of making lower-highs in stocks has been occurring in Japan since 1992. Big Government Intervention has its perks.


No matter where I go this morning, the entire risk management community can see all of my mistakes. My current mistakes are attached at the bottom of every morning’s Early Look (my biggest mistake on the long side is currently Suncor (SU) at -5.3% and, on the short side, Consumer Staples (XLP) at -2.9% against me). My longer term mistakes are all time stamped on our website and on the back of my ankle.


Transparency. Accountability. Trust.


These are principles that plenty of politicians give lip service to. In real-life, they are extremely hard to achieve. I don’t think my firm is there yet, but I do know that the people I have working with me have Intellectual Honesty – and in terms of re-thinking industry standards on independent research, I think we’re well on our way.


My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are $1480-$1502, $95.16-$100.91, and 1324-1358, respectively.


Best of luck out there today,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Intellectual Honesty - Chart of the Day


Intellectual Honesty - Virtual Portfolio

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