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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - May 23, 2011

With the US Dollar Index holding the Hedgeye immediate-term TRADE line of 74.41, the question now isn’t will it hold support; how high will it go from here, and how low will everything that’s correlated to it fall?   As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.92% downside to 1321 and 0.50% upside to 1340.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - wpgm1

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -951 (+1503)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 992.37 (+13.78%)
  • VIX:  17.43 +12.31% YTD PERFORMANCE: -1.80%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.08 from 1.80 (+15.24%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 21.69
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.05%
  • 10-Year: 3.15 from 3.17
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.60 from 2.62 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, est. 0.20, prior 0.26
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $27b 3-mo., $24b 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop conditions
  • 8:10 p.m.: Fed’s Bullard speaks on economy in Missouri    

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. gasoline fell 9.24c to $3.9074/gallon over past two weeks, Lundberg Survey said; another dime drop is possible
  • A congressional agreement to increase the U.S. debt limit may take until August, Paul Ryan, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House Budget Committee, said yesterday  
  • Dell to introduce $999 laptop 24-May - WSJ 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Oil Declines Amid Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth, Greek Debt Default
  • Speculators Cut Bets Food Prices Will Keep Rising as Supply Concern Eases
  • Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Bets on Crude to Three-Month Low: Energy Markets
  • Copper Slides Most in Two Weeks as Manufacturing Growth Weakens in China
  • Rubber Futures in China May Extend Decline From Record: Technical Analysis
  • Corn Climbs to Highest in a Month on Concern Rains to Delay U.S. Planting
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivory Coast Inaugurates President Ouattara; Sugar Declines
  • Gold May Advance for a Second Day on Increased Europe Debt-Crisis Concern
  • Nickel Market to Return to Balance From Deficit, Norilsk’s Kuznetzov Says
  • Coal Exports From U.S. Reach 20-Year High on Australia Floods, SSY Says
  • Cocoa Is Poised for 13% Drop as Cargill Resumes Exports From Ivory Coast
  • Mitsubishi Materials Cuts Copper Output 22% After Earthquake Halts Smelter
  • Bonds Wrecked by Inflation Send Record Money Into Gold Funds: India Credit
  • Bullish Wheat Bets by Hedge Funds Drop 54% as Concern About Supply Eases

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • A nasty selloff today with everything from Petro$ (Russia) to Pigs (Italy -3%) getting blasted; we're long DAX which is holding TREND (barely).
  • Eurozone May Preliminary Manufacturing PMI 54.8 vs consensus 57.4 and prior 58.0; Eurozone May Preliminary Services PMI 55.4 vs consensus 56.5 and prior 56.7
  • Germany May preliminary Manufacturing PMI 58.2 vs consensus 61.0 and prior 62.0; Germany May preliminary Services PMI 54.9 vs consensus 57.0 and prior 56.8
  • France May preliminary Manufacturing PMI 55.0 vs consensus 57.0 and prior 57.5; France May preliminary Services PMI 62.8 vs consensus 62.0 and prior 62.9
  • Greek falls behind on payments to medical suppliers - FT

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpem1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - wpem1

ASIAN MARKETS

  • A flat out ugly session with China down -2.9%, Indonesia -2.4% and India down another -1.8% to -12.3% YTD (we're short India and Thailand)
  • Japan April supermarket sales (1.3%) y/y.
  • China May HSBC preliminary PMI 51.1 vs April final 51.8 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - wpam1

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

Howard Penney

Managing Director