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Drawdown Risk: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

While it’s difficult to quantify how many people agree with our outside-of-consensus view of US Growth Slowing, we are certain that the percentage of people coming into our camp is rising.

 

Time and price tend to do that, particularly when the most immediate-term data points start to positively correlate with the most immediate-term price reaction.

 

DATA: This morning’s US Industrial Production print coming in FLAT (0.0%) sequentially for April (versus May) has the Industrial stocks getting slammed (XLI = -1.6% on the day as of 1PM EST), and people asking themselves if the “earnings” of cyclicals are indeed cyclical.

 

PRICE: Across our core 3 investment durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), this is what Mr. Macro Market is telling me today: 

  1. The long-term TAIL of resistance = 1377 remains intact (lower-long-term highs in the SP500 are no different than the Nikkei’s).
  2. The intermediate-term TREND line of support = 1319 is finally under siege.
  3. The immediate-term TRADE line of resistance (was support) = 1340 has people worried – and rightly so – May is a mess. 

Provided that 1319 can hold for a few days, we’ll call this Drawdown Risk for what it has been – a -3.2% correction. If 1319 doesn’t hold,  I think 1207 for the SP500 sometime this summer comes into play.

 

That would be a very different scenario than the sellside consensus view about US Growth and SP500 returns for 2011 - and that’s precisely why you should start thinking about it.

 

Remember, Big Government Intervention A) shortens economic cycles and B) amplifies market volatility.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Drawdown Risk: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1


NKE: KM Covering TRADE

 

Brian McGough made a great short call on Dick's (DKS) ahead of the quarter yesterday, but the comps weakness there isn't reason to not cover Nike on the short covering opportunity. - KM

 

NKE: KM Covering TRADE - NKE 5 17 11


JCP: Shorting (Again)

 

We don't buy into the financial engineering story here now inasmuch as we didn't believe in the TGT one back then (2008). - KM

 

Once again, JCP’s guidance isn’t quite as robust as it first appears. The headline suggests that full-year outlook was raised to $2.15-2.25 up from $2.00-$2.10. The reality is that relative to the company’s initial guidance provided at year-end, this ‘new’ outlook includes not only share repurchases (adding $0.20 in EPS), but also $35mm in additional SG&A savings (another $0.10 in EPS). By our math, that implies $0.15 of core earnings erosion. The earnings growth here continues to be largely driven by a combination of allocating capital in the form of share repurchases at the top and cost savings that include pension expense reductions. With same store sales of +3.8% coming in at the lower end of company’s guidance of 3-5% and e-commerce (+6.6%) a key driver also coming in below full-year expectations for double-digit growth – full year same store sales guidance still appears robust in our view.

 

We’re still convinced that JC Penney is in the center of the bulls-eye as it relates to the erosion in retail margins in 2H that is yet to be appreciated by a) management, b) earnings expectations, or c) valuation multiples.

 

Oh, and by the way, if I hear one more person tell me ‘I can’t short JCP in the face of Ackmanism,’ I’m going to scream (or laugh – one or the other).

 

JCP: Shorting (Again) - JCP 5 17 11

 

JCP: Shorting (Again) - JCP S 5 11

 

 

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

HD/LOW: Slider

It's always interesting to compare and contrast HD vs. LOW, but this quarter, the diversions are not quite as severe as the market suggests. Two Takeaways: Though the market could care less, 1) this is the first time in years that the 2 companies share similar slopes in SIGMA (P&L/Balance Sheet triangulation. 2) LOW actually looks better on paper than HD.

 

The market is painting HD as the hero and LOW as the goat. One beat and guided up, the other missed and guided down. While LOW’s comp of (-3.3%) was so much weaker than Depot’s (-0/6%), AND the underlying trendline (2, 3-year) also underperformed, check out the directional moves in our SIGMA (below). Nothing to take from Depot here. It printed a better quarter. Period.

 

These two companies have been duking out differing inventory strategies for a while, ‘stack it high, let it fly’ vs. ‘lay it low, let it flow), as well as the case regarding square footage growth vs. risk of increased cannibalization. All-in, we think that LOW usually wins that argument from a return on capital perspective. But that's longer term.

 

Above all the noise out there, there's something that clearly caught our eye.

 

Simply put, this is the first time in years that both of these companies shared a similar slope in SIGMA trajectory. What does this slope (down and to the left) mean? Aside from resembling a slider, It means that on the margin, both companies had a build in inventories relative to the top line AT THE SAME TIME profitability eroded ON THE MARGIN.

 

We’ve always said that these SIGMA charts don’t necessarily give us all the answers, but they do ensure that a) we’re asking the right questions, and b) we get a glimpse into how management teams trade off their P&L vs. their balance sheet in a given environment. The very simple take-always in looking at this chart are…

 

1)     Given the nearly identical slopes for the two since well before the recession, we’ve gotta call this out as meaningful. We don’t like to call a trend based on one data point – but ignore this one at your own risk (especially on a day like today where housing data came in weak).

 

2)     While the slopes of the lines are the same, their positioning is different. Depot is in what we call the ‘Danger Zone.’ That’s where margins are up, but inventory is building. The likelihood of a stock going up as it enters this quadrant (and stays there for one more, subsequently), is below 20%.

 

3)     On the flip side, LOW is resting in what we call ‘Clean Up Mode.’ That’s where margins are off, but the company is actively doing so to keep the balance sheet whole. The risk for LOW is that it continues its current slope. If that’s the case, then there’s a better than 90% chance that the stock will go down. But if it keeps itself clean and can ‘start over’ with its product flow heading into summer, we’d be surprised if HD continued to outperform LOW.

 

HD/LOW: Slider - 5 17 2011 11 04 28 AM


FL/DKS: Mind the Sympathy

Resist the urge to jump to conclusions on FL (which we like) based on the significant comp miss out of DKS (which we don’t like) this morning. If FL trades off, it will look all the more appealing heading into the print. Consider the following…

 

  1. Hardgoods account for 54% of DKS’ total sales (and is the likely source of comp underperformance in the quarter) while footwear is only ~18% of the portfolio. On the contrary, footwear accounts for nearly 90% of sales at FL.
  2. Based on monthly NPD POS athletic footwear data released last night, the spread between the athletic specialty channel and the shoe chains and dept/natn’l channels is at its widest in years. The bottom-line is that sales in the athletic specialty channel were up +8.4% in Q1 compared to the +3.6% implied by weekly data – this is a significant improvement.
  3. Lastly, ASPs, while growing at a sequentially lower rate, are still up LSD yy (vs a difficult 5% comp yy) in the athletic specialty channel – where FL is leading. In addition, higher unit sales more than make up for any ASP weakness.

We don’t want to send the wrong message here – this s not a stock we love. It’s not a great business, it’s far too over-indexed to one vendor, and it’s not super cheap at 6.2x EBITDA. But there is plenty of ‘outside-the-box’ execution to be conceived and executed upon here in the new regime.  We still think that after the call, this will slowly but surely convert some of the perennial perma-FL-haters’ into viewing this as a story that can manage double digit EPS growth and can buy back 30% of the float within 3-years. That’s not half bad…  While not our favorite stock, it is one we think should keep working in 2H.


THE M3: MGM CHINA IPO PRICING; WYNN COMMENTS; ARISTOCRAT/GALAXY MACAU; CENTRAL SAVING ACCOUNTS

The Macau Metro Monitor, May 17, 2011

 

 

MGM CHINA SETS PRICE RANGE FOR $1.5 BILLION HONG KONG IPO BusinessWeek

MGM China will offer 760MM shares at HK$12.36 to HK$15.34 a piece.  MGM China received orders covering all the stock offered to institutional investors on the first day of marketing the IPO, two people with knowledge of the matter said.  MGM China will hold a press conference for the share sale on May 19.


WYNN SEES STRONGER MACAU REVENUES AFTER GALAXY LAUNCH Reuters, Strait Times

Steve Wynn said he is confident Macau's gaming revenue growth for 1Q (+43% YoY) will be exceeded this year with the launch of Galaxy Macau.  Wynn added, "We just have a lot of VIP business, but we also have the best win per table in the general casino in Macau. Of all 33 casinos, the best general casino is the one you are standing on top of.  We are always looking for new opportunities. We feel that we are an Asian company and we are now mature. We are all grown up, we have a capital structure and balance sheet that allows us to go anywhere and do any project of any size easily."  Asked about losing market share to rivals, Wynn said he was not worried as the company's share of the money had grown.  Moreover, Wynn remarked that after seeing Galaxy Macau, it has made him rethink some of the designs for a new casino his company is planning to build.

 

ARISTOCRAT SECURES OVER 60% OF SLOTS AT GALAXY MACAU macaubusiness.com

Aristocrat announced it has well over 60% of the slot installations at Galaxy Macau.

 

CENTRAL SAVING ACCOUNTS TO GET MOP 6,000 IN SEPTEMBER Macau Daily Times

The government will inject MOP 6,000 into the saving accounts of ~320,000 qualified permanent residents.


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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