TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - May 17 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 9 points or -0.19% downside to 1327 and 0.49% upside to 1336.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1607 (+252)
- VOLUME: NYSE 907.30 (+0.99%)
- VIX: 18.24 +6.85% YTD PERFORMANCE: +2.76%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.88 from 1.81 (+3.76%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 24.02
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.04% +0.01%
- 10-Year: 3.15 from 3.18
- YIELD CURVE: 2.61 from 2.61
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 a.m.: Housing starts, est. 569k, up 3.6%; prior 549k, up 0.8%
- 8:30 a.m.: Building permits, est. 590k, up 0.9%, prior 594k, up 11.2%
- 9:15 a.m.: Industrial production, up 0.4%, prior up 0.8%
- 9:15 a.m.: Capacity utilization, est. 77.6%, prior 77.4%
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b in 4-week bills
- 4:30 p.m.: API inventories
WHAT TO WATCH:
- WSJ notes that Department of Justice is stepping up its merger opposition
- Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker raises issue of 'reprofiling' of Greek debt for first time - Bloomberg
- Goldman, BofA and Morgan Stanley to meet with N.Y. Attorney General Eric Schneiderman as part of an investigation into mortgage securitization
- Greece may delay payments under EU proposal to extend $156 bailout
- International finance ministers discuss IMF managing director successorship after Strauss-Kahn arrest
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Global Food Prices Extending Gains Set to Raise Costs for Tyson, Kellogg
- Crude Recovers in New York as European Ministers Endorse Aid to Portugal
- Copper Rises for Fourth Day Before U.S. Housing-Starts, Production Reports
- Gold Climbs as Physical Purchases, European Debt Concern Increase Demand
- Corn Advances for Fourth Day as Wet Weather Delays Spring Planting in U.S.
- Sugar Rises for Fourth Day on Speculation Surplus May Shrink; Coffee Gains
- Wheat Damage Claims on Dry Weather May Signal Worse Harvest Than Forecast
- Mississippi River Diversion Greatly Reduces Threat to Cities, Refineries
- Cotton Moving Average Signals 21% Drop, Infinity Says: Technical Analysis
- Soros Sheds Gold ETPs as Paulson Keeps Bet on Bullion Extending Record Run
- Xstrata Record Profit Seen as Coal Cargoes Gain Amid Rout: Freight Markets
- Petrobras Yield Gap Over Sovereign Debt Is a Buy Indication: Brazil Credit
- Fonterra’s New Zealand Milk Production May Reach Record After Mild Autumn
- Australia Canola Output May Reach Decade High, Matching Record, Group Says
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- European equity markets trade mixed to lower
- Germany May ZEW 91.5 vs consensus 87.5 and prior 87.1; Germany May ZEW economic sentiment +3.1 vs consensus +5.0 and prior +7.6
- UK Apr RPI +5.2% y/y vs consensus +5.2% and prior +5.3%; UK Apr RPI +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.8% and prior +0.5%
- UK Apr CPI +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior +4.0%; UK Apr CPI +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.7% and prior +0.3%
ASIAN MARKETS
- Thailand was closed for Visakha Bucha Day
- Singapore was closed for Vesak Day
- Indonesia was closed for Waisak.
- Asian markets were mixed to unchanged on the day.
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director
