TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - May 10, 2011
Yesterday, we saw the USD down to start the week (down for the 15th week of the last 20), which had CRB Index ripping yesterday (+2.1%) after getting crushed last week (down -8.9% for the wk). Oil moved back above our intermediate-term TREND line of support = $98.63 and Gold continues to look better than almost everything that’s big and liquid other than maybe the German DAX. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.99% downside to 1334 and 0.35% upside to 1351.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
The Hedgeye models now have 7 of 9 S&P Sectors bullish TRADE and 8 of 9 bearish TREND. The XLF is the only sector broken on both durations.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +1181 (+188)
- VOLUME: NYSE 778.48 (-24.18%)
- VIX: 17.16 -6.47% YTD PERFORMANCE: -3.32%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.94 from 1.85 (+4.61%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 24.55 -1.521 (-5.834%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03% +0.01%
- 10-Year: 3.17 from 3.19
- YIELD CURVE: 2.60 from 2.62
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business, est. 91.8, prior 91.9
- 7:45 a.m.: ICSC-Goldman weekly retail sales
- 8:30 a.m.: Import price, est. 1.8% (M/m), prior 2.7%
- 9:30 a.m.: Fed’s Duke speaks in St. Louis
- 10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $28b 4-wk bills
- 12 noon: DoE short-term energy outlook
- 12:45 a.m.: Fed’s Lacker speaks on Arlington, Vir.
- 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b in 3-yr notes
- 4:30 p.m.: API inventories
WHAT TO WATCH:
- China’s April inflation data due out tomorrow.
- Microsoft close to completing $7B for Skype - WSJ
- Google online music service to probably be announced tomorrow at Google I/O developers conference - WSJ
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Crop Weather Damage Grows as Europe Drought, Canada Rain Boost Grain Costs
- Oil Inventories Increase to Near a Two-Year High in Survey: Energy Markets
- Sugar Rises Most in Six Weeks as Imports Into China May Jump; Cocoa Gains
- Wheat Gains for Third Day as Adverse Weather Threatens Harvests Worldwide
- Copper Climbs for a Third Day Before Release of Figures on China Inflation
- Copper Imports by China Decline on Ample Supplies, Higher Overseas Prices
- Gold May Advance as Sovereign-Finance Concern Stokes Demand; Silver Gains
- Malaysia Smelting Climbs to Three-Month High as Tin Prices Produce Profit
- Mississippi Flooding Threatens Cropland, Refineries and Shipping Traffic
- Soybean Imports by China Tumble on Canceled Orders as Stockpiles Stay High
- Palm Oil Stockpiles, Output Reach Six-Month High in Malaysia on Weather
- Greek banks jump on talk country to avoid debt restructuring. But…
- Greece denies report it is discussing new aid package -- Reuters, citing Greek Finance Minister
- France Mar Industrial output (0.9%) m/m vs consensus +0.4%
- Most Asian markets that were open today ended a higher
- Hong Kong was closed for Buddha’s Birthday.
- South Korea was closed for Sukka Tansin II.
- China April trade surplus $11.4B vs consensus $1-3B. Australia March trade balance A$1.74B vs consensus A$500M.