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“MCD – SAYING UNCLE (FOR NOW)”

Today, McDonald’s reported global SSS of 6.0% in April, vs. 4.0% consensus estimate.  The US, Europe, and APMEA were up 4.0%, 6.5%, & 6.5%, respectively.  Every region was ahead of consensus of 3.3%, 5.1%, and 2.7%, respectively.  This month’s sales were helped by a 1% calendar shift and 1-2% of pricing taken in the first quarter. 

 

Our bearish thesis on MCD has been predicated on a slowing in the U.S. business which has not – as yet – materialized.  The strength in the USA comes on the heels of a strong year in 2010 and no new product momentum.  While MCD is not out of the woods yet, the momentum going into summer is far stronger than we had modeled.  However, the summer is the period where the validity of my bearish thesis will ultimately be determined. 

 

The U.S. business, on a calendar-adjusted basis, saw a slight deterioration in two-year average trends from March.  However, the level of sales growth has now been in excess of what we were modeling for two consecutive months.  Management highlighted the popularity of the McCafe beverage line-up, including the recently introduced McCafe shakes, the breakfast menu, and core products including the Big Mac and Quarter Pounder with Cheese as key drivers of the U.S. growth.

 

Europe’s print was ahead of consensus and implied a sequential acceleration in two-year average trends of 50 basis points.  In spite of concerns over unemployment levels and austerity measures in Europe, MCD’s business there is continuing its robust growth rate in 2011.  Beef and chicken options, dessert offerings, and the ongoing benefit of restaurant reimaging were highlighted as key drivers of the business’ growth.

 

APMEA offered the  most substantial upside surprise versus consensus.  Management cited strong consumer appetite for locally-relevant menu options and compelling value as two key factors.  Many countries in the developing world are seeing food costs spiral out of control.  To the extent that MCD continues to offer compelling value by leveraging their system, the robust top-line should continue in APMEA.

 

MCD and its franchisees are seeking to reimage the vast majority of its U.S. stores by 2015.  We will have additional thoughts on this, and the company’s broader U.S. business, following our trip to Tampa on Thursday where we will be joining the MCD Restaurant Reimaging Tour. 

 

“MCD – SAYING UNCLE (FOR NOW)” - MCD US

 

“MCD – SAYING UNCLE (FOR NOW)” - MCD Europe

 

“MCD – SAYING UNCLE (FOR NOW)” - MCD APMEA

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


R3: Adi/Titleist, GILT, Cotton, Amazon

 

R3: REQUIRED RETAIL READING

May 9, 2011

 

 

 

 

RESEARCH ANECDOTES

  • According to Millward Brown’s annual Brandz study that incorporates both economic factors and competitive dynamics to assess brand value, retail/apparel companies took 11 of the Top 100 in 2011. Amazon (formally categorized under tech) and Wal-Mart led the pack coming in at #14 and #15 respectively with all but Wal-Mart (-5%) growing in value year-over-year. Interestingly, Luxury was the third fastest growing sector in 2011 led by LVMH while Nike, H&M, and Zara rounded out the Top 3 in apparel, which landed at fifth. (here’s a copy of Millward Brown’s report).
  • The first third of the K-Swiss management’s prepared commentary on Friday’s call was spent on the company’s recent marketing efforts – most notably its initiative featuring Jillian Michaels which kicked off in January and for good reason. This was the first quarter that Performance product (i.e. new innovation such as running etc.) overtook Lifestyle (includes legacy tennis white shoes) accounting for 43% compared to 33% of total sales respectively. In addition, not only has Tubes became a top seller at Lady Foot Locker, but the effort also includes an apparel line designed by Michaels, which presents substantial opportunity for the company with less than 8% of sales generated by apparel currently.

OUR TAKE ON OVERNIGHT NEWS

 

Gilt Groupe Raises $138 Million from Softbank and Others for Growth, Acquisitions -Gilt Groupe, the New York-based flash-sales site that offers discounts on apparel, travel, home decor and other categories, has raised a whopping $138 million in capital. Participants in the fifth round include Softbank Group, the Japanese-based telecom conglomerate, as well as Gilt’s previous investors, General Atlantic and Matrix Partners. Other new investors include: Goldman Sachs, New Enterprise Associates, Draper Fisher Jurvetson Growth, Pinnacle Ventures, Triple Point Capital and Eastward Capital. Softbank’s involvement is two-fold. Not only will it be contributing $62.5 million of the round, which will all be going towards Gilt’s U.S. operations, it will also invest a smaller undisclosed amount into Gilt Groupe Japan. The two companies will each own 50 percent of the joint venture. In all, Gilt has raised $240 million. The fifth round values the company at roughly $1 billion before the round is taken into account. The round was first reported in a regulatory filing last week.  <Emoney>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Interesting…. A 5th round of financing is pretty big, and we’re definitely talking about some bigger numbers. Goldman is not buying into Gilt to own it in perpetuity. There will be a monetization event. But keep in mind that this business is not easily scalable – which is why it has ventured into so many categories. The Japan angle is interesting, as geographic expansion might be the meal ticket here given the absence of an opportunity to go deep in a category. 

 

Online Retailer Amazon Repays Indiana Sales Tax Policy - Amazon.com is planning to open a third large distribution center with hundreds of jobs in tax-friendly Indiana, finding refuge from other states that have attempted to force the online retail giant to collect sales tax. Seattle-based Amazon is announcing today that it plans to open a 900,000-square-foot Internet order fulfillment center in Indianapolis this summer but gave few other details. It declined to disclose the facility's precise location. Company officials said the facility will create hundreds of jobs. That figure could go higher, considering that an existing Amazon fulfillment center in Whitestown has 1,200 full-time workers. Another in Plainfield opened with 350. Like the existing centers, the new Indianapolis facility is expected to hire hundreds of additional seasonal workers, particularly around the busy Christmas season. <Indystar>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: The latest move in Amazon’s online tax charade, the retailer has found a shelter state after closing its DC in Texas back in February. Either way you look at it’s political. In this instance, its about jobs and a greater local presence by Amazon. That trumps internet sales tax in this instance.

 

Adidas Among Final Bidders for Acushnet Co. - Adidas AG and Blackstone Group LP are among the companies vying for Acushnet Co., Fortune Brands Inc.'s golf division that includes Titleist and FootJoy, sources told Bloomberg News. Offers are due May 9, and Fortune Brands may negotiate with multiple parties in the coming weeks, one source said. Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd., the owner of the Srixon golf ball line, also may submit a bid, one of the sources told Bloomberg. Fortune's sporting-goods business generated more than $1.2 billion in sales last year. <SportsOneSource>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: This comes down to whether Adidas ‘could’ versus ‘should’ buy Acuschnet. They want it, as it would make them a force to be reckoned with in US golf when combined with Taylor Made. The price tag here is likely in the $800mm to $1Bn range (using EBITDA and Sales multiples). There will be other suitors, though the strong euro will help here.  Most importantly, this would help Nike and UnderArmour, as it would tie up capital that Adidas would otherwise spend on growing its US business (and on sports market assets).

 

BCBG Looks to Refinance Debt - BCBG Max Azria Group Inc. is working to secure a new $230 million term loan to refinance a portion of its debt. Standard & Poor’s Friday gave the proposed senior secured first-lien term loan a rating of “B-minus.” The debt watchdog also raised BCBG’s corporate credit rating to “B-minus” from “CCC-plus.” The company’s current rating suggests that it has capacity to meet its obligations, but that adverse economic conditions might change that. BCBG has a $110 million first-lien term loan coming due in August that, if not refinanced, could impair the firm’s liquidity. The refinancing would extend repayment on the debt until 2015. “The ratings on BCBG reflect our belief that liquidity will improve to ‘less than adequate’ from ‘weak’ after the completion of the refinancing, with an extended maturity profile and adequate covenant headroom,” said S&P. <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: Waiting a little late to refi debt due in August, huh?  Anyone who might be interested in owning this brand should be sitting back and watching how this plays out. This might be an opportunistic buy. 

 

Hampshire Sells Women's Business - Hampshire Group is getting out of the women’s business, freeing up resources for both acquisitions and its men’s wear operations in a bid to return to profitability. The New York-based firm, headed by chief executive officer Heath Golden, sold its Designers Originals, Mercer Street Studio and Hampshire Studio businesses to the LF USA division of Li & Fung and inked an agreement to sell its Item Eyes unit to KBL Group. The terms of the deals were not disclosed. “The plan is to get to profitability, and our women’s businesses were good businesses but difficult for us with our cost structure to really grow and do very well in,” Golden told WWD. “We had an opportunity to monetize them for good value and bring significant money back onto our balance sheet.”Hampshire’s losses from continuing operations widened last year to $9.7 million from $6 million in 2009, as sales fell 18.6 percent to $134.5 million. The company last turned a profit in 2007, when net income from continuing operations was $2.8 million. The company ended last year with cash and short-term investments of $33.7 million.<WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  If you can’t make money, then get out! These guys get it… Too bad they account for 0.0001% of the industry. 

 

Barnes & Noble Plans to Launch a New e-reader - Barnes & Noble Inc. plans to launch a new e-book reader May 24, the company disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing this week. The bookseller already has two devices, the Nook and Nook Color. The Nook Color has a 7-inch touchscreen and retails at $249. The Nook, with a grayscale display, starts at $149. The retailer did not disclose whether this new device will be an additional e-reader or a replacement. A Barnes & Noble spokeswoman says the company will not comment beyond the single sentence announcing the planned launch in the filing.  <InternetRetailer>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: This product category might go down in history as one of the most rapidly commoditized categories. 

 

Cotton Price Squeeze Goes On -  The price of cotton per pound is at levels not seen since the Civil War and it doesn’t look like things will abate anytime soon. That was the message from Mark Messura, senior vice president of global marketing supply chain at Cotton Incorporated, who presented a cotton market analysis Wednesday at The Union League Club to industry executives. The event was sponsored by The Intimate Apparel Council, a division of the American Apparel and Footwear Association.   “What’s going on in the cotton market is unprecedented,” said Messura. “A fundamental balance has tightened with exported crops nearly sold out worldwide, exported crops in China [the world’s largest cotton producer] close to sold out.…Ninety eight percent of U.S. cotton exports are already sold out on paper.…World production [of cotton] has dropped dramatically, by 40 percent, because farmers are planting more corn and soy crops. The real culprit is ethanol.” <WWD>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take: While Messura’s agenda is clearly biased, the argument is a fair one. 

 

Getting Consumers to Buy In to Geolocation Apps - Many marketers find location-based services exciting because of the possibilities for local and loyalty-based initiatives, and the tech media lighted on check-in apps as a shiny new game. But the average consumer still has not found a real reason to check in—especially not one that overcomes their concerns about mobile privacy and security. Even knowledge of the apps has not reached many smartphone owners yet, according to digital marketing agency White Horse. A February 2011 survey of US smartphone users ages 14 and older found that fewer than three in five knew about location-based mobile apps, and just 39% used them. Even that level of awareness has likely risen significantly due to Facebook’s entrance into the market. Earlier market entrants foursquare and Gowalla have been quickly passed in usage by Facebook Places, which can be credited with introducing check-ins to the masses, if not leading to mass adoption.<eMarketer>

Hedgeye Retail’s Take:  This is a really interesting call-out. We’re not sure what to make of it, other than mobile shopping has yet to catch on in a meaningful way. The companies who are investing in this today (and have been for years) will be the winners. We’ve got more work to do on that one.

 

R3: Adi/Titleist, GILT, Cotton, Amazon - R3 5 9 11

 

 

 


WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH

This week's notable callouts include a new high in the TED spread and a sharp decline in the JOC commodity index. 


Financial Risk Monitor Summary (Across 3 Durations):

  • Short-term (WoW): Neutral / 3 of 11 improved / 3 out of 11 worsened / 5 of 11 unchanged
  • Intermediate-term (MoM): Positive / 2 of 11 improved / 6 of 11 worsened / 3 of 11 unchanged
  • Long-term (150 DMA): Neutral / 4 of 11 improved / 4 of 11 worsened / 3 of 11 unchanged

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - summary

 

1. US Financials CDS Monitor – Swaps widened across domestic financials, widening for 25 of the 28 reference entities and tightening for 3. 

Widened the most vs last week: GS, PMI, MBI

Tightened the most vs last week: MS, ACE, AON

Widened the most vs last month: JPM, PMI, MTG

Tightened the most vs last month: ACE, ALL, AGO

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - us cds

 

2. European Financials CDS Monitor – Banks swaps in Europe were mostly wider, widening for 31 of the 39 reference entities and tightening for 8.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - euro cd

 

3. European Sovereign CDS –  After taking a breather the prior week, European sovereign swaps increased late last week, rising 5 bps on average.  Greek CDS rose on speculation that Greece would leave the Eurozone.  Our Europe analyst, Matt Hedrick, commented in a piece on Friday, “It seems far more likely that these meetings are being called to discuss the back and forth over recent days about the prospect of Greece restructuring its debt, a position Greeks deny the need for, while select European voices continue to press.  Greece’s equity market (Athex) had a tough week, closing down 4.5% w/w as sovereign cds and government yields remain elevated, with the Greek 10yr yield at 15.5%. That said, we’re not seeing a freak-out in risk intraday that would confirm the validity of the likelihood that Greece leaves the union.  If anything, a serious talk about Greece’s public debt and the prospect for restructuring was probably in order, and the weekend will help shield some of the downside risk to the meeting’s announcement.”

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - sov cds

 

4. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell last week, ending at 7.12 versus 7.66 the prior week. A data error or methodology change appears to be the cause of the step function in the Bloomberg series.  We are awaiting clarification on this shift.  

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - high yield

 

5. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index remained flat last week at 1621. 

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - leveraged loan

 

6. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread rose last week to a new YTD high, ending the week at 26.2 versus 23.8 the prior week.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - ted

 

7. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – Last week, the JOC index dove with the rest of the commodity market, ending the week at 21.0, 7.3 points lower than the prior week.  This fall brings the JOC to its year-to-date low.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - JOC

 

8. Greek Bond Yields Monitor – We chart the 10-year yield on Greek bonds.  Last week yields fell 15 bps versus the prior Friday.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - greek bonds

 

9. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps.  We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments.  Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 14-V1.  Last week spreads fell to 99 from 112.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - mcds

 

10. Baltic Dry Index – The Baltic Dry Index measures international shipping rates of dry bulk cargo, mostly commodities used for industrial production.  Higher demand for such goods, as manifested in higher shipping rates, indicates economic expansion.  Early in the year, Australian floods and oversupply pressured the Index, driving it down 30% before bouncing off the lows.  Last week it rose 71 points to 1340.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - bdi

 

11. 2-10 Spread – We track the 2-10 spread as a proxy for bank margins.  Last week the 2-10 spread tightened 8 bps to 260 bps. 

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - 2 10

 

12. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team sees the setup in the XLF as follows:  2.3% upside to TRADE resistance, 0.6% downside to TRADE support.

 

WEEKLY RISK MONITOR FOR FINANCIALS: TED SPREAD HITS A NEW YTD HIGH  - xlf

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


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THE M3: MGM IPO; MIN WAGE BILL; GALAXY-MOODY'S-S&P

The Macau Metro Monitor, May 9, 2011

 


MGM CHINA NOW SEEKING TO RAISE UP TO US$1.5 BLN IN HK IPO-SOURCE WSJ, Apple Daily

MGM wants to raise between US$1BN to $1.5BN for its HK IPO, which is 3x what it had sought in a 2010 listing.  MGM China has begun pre-marketing for the deal and aims to launch its roadshow on May 17 and start its Hong Kong retail offering on May 23, the person said. The person added the company aims to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange on June 3.

 

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper reports that the size of the offering is likely to be cut by 20% to US$800 million because of uncertain market conditions. The newspaper cites market sources.

GOVERNMENT PRESENTS BILL TO INCREASE MINIMUM AGE TO ENTER CASINOS macaubusiness.com, Intelligence Macau

There is a new Macau bill that will increase the minimum age for entering casinos from 18 to 21 years.  If someone under 21 years old wins a prize inside a casino, the bill states the money should be forfeit to the government.  The proposed age limit will cover both players and casino workers. However, those employees aged less than 21 years when the bill is enacted will be exempted.

 

IM believes this bill should be taken seriously as it will be another labor restriction, but Wynn Macau will be the least affected. 

 

GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP CLARIFICATION STATEMENT ON RATING AGENCY RELATIONSHIPS Galaxy Entertainment Group

Galaxy Casino has not renewed its engagements with Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s corporate ratings services after the early redemption of its 2010 and 2012 bonds.  Galaxy clarified that it, not Moody's, initiated this termination.  Galaxy Macau remains on schedule and on budget to open on May 15, 2011.


IHG YOUTUBE

In preparation for IHG’s Q1 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the pertinent forward looking commentary from IHG’s Q4 earnings call.

 


Q1 YOUTUBE

  • “Although our visibility remains limited ... our demand trends do look very good and our momentum is strong.”
  • “In terms of system size, we expect growth to remain modest this year as the last tranche of exits related to the Holiday Inn re-launch directly are managed out of the system. In future years, the level of removals should revert to historic norms. And that should allow us to produce annual net system size growth of between 3% and 5% over the medium term.”
  • “For 2011, we expect the effective tax rate to be in the high 20%s. And going forward, the rate will move toward the low to mid 30%s.”
  • “Based on our expectations of the net system size movement in the Americas franchise business due to these exits, we expect a decrease in royalty fees in the region of $15 million in 2011.”
  • “Looking at 2011, our continued focus on costs and efficiencies mean that, based on the current trading outlook and at constant currency, our expectation for regional and central costs is between $250 million and $260 million as planned incentive payments return to a more normal level.”
  • “In 2011, we are starting a number of technology enhancements, which means that we do expect maintenance capital expenditures to go back above depreciation and to be in the region of $150 million.”
  • “We now have... an 18% share of the global industry pipeline. That compares to a 3% share of the total open hotel system and an 8% share of the total open branded system. And within that pipeline we have the top three brands, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express and Crowne Plaza.”
  • “On Barclay, we’ve obviously been working on preparing for the sale for a little while. So we’re clearly looking to sell, just to be clear, keeping flag and management on the hotel. We’re also going to be selling it with a requirement to refurbish the property as well. So we actually have a refurbishment plan. We’re talking in the order of $100 million refurbishment plan to really bring the hotel back to where it needs to be and to compete effectively or complement effectively the new InterContinental we’ve got in Times Square….So we’ll probably be looking second half of the year.”
  • “I think we’re seeing finally some thawing in the lending markets in Northern Europe where they’ve been very difficult for a period.”
  • “And if you look at the January numbers, we’re up again. And North America trends are looking very good in that area.”
  • “So at the moment we’re thinking maybe inflation up to mid-single digits is where we’re going to finish, although we’re only three-quarters of the way through that process.”
  • [1% REVPAR sensitivity on EBITDA] “Yes. 1%, $13 million still holds. That’s a full-year number. Obviously it slightly depends where the RevPAR growth comes through, but we think that holds for 2011. So we haven’t changed that.”
  • “HPT. We continue to have discussions with them. The guarantee will burn out this quarter one and we’re into deposit. So good-natured discussions, but ultimately we’re earning no income from that portfolio and we need to earn some income from it. So we’ll see where we get to, but we’re continuing to talk to them.”
  • "We’re seeing no slowdown in deal pace in China at the moment.”
  • “I think what we’re seeing...is that the Holiday Inn Express, and the Holiday Inn core brand are now starting to hit their stride, the markets stabilizing around price points... One of the interesting features, though, is how well Holiday Inn is doing. It’s getting very competitive now. For a time, the differential between Holiday Inn Express and Holiday Inn was actually in the opposite direction that you might have expected, and Holiday Inn Express was quite often outperforming Holiday Inn. We’re beginning to see that now move in a different direction as the Holiday Inn with food and beverage product starts to – the quality of that estate now starts to come through.”
  • “I think the long-term intention is to move the Holiday Inn brand premium up. We’re already about 10 points better than the segment’s average on average. And we would like to start to close some of the gap on the upscale brands that are above it, and we see no reason now with the quality of the estate, and the brand imagery that we’ve got out there that over time, and as people get used to the new product, we can’t actually start to close the gap on some of its more upscale competitors.”
  • “We have 25 hotels in Shanghai at the moment; that will be going up to 40, 42... Even though we are well-dispersed through the secondary and tertiary markets, we still have leading positions in the major cities in China. There is quite a large discrepancy between the highest RevPARs based on Holiday Inn or a Crowne Plaza, and the lowest, it’s probably about 50% at the low end for the regions. We anticipate that will change over time and will start to close down, bu it’ll be quite some time yet before that happens.”
  • “We have a broader distribution across America than perhaps some of our competitors, given the heartland states of our midscale estate. But at the moment, we are still seeing the big driver of our business in the States coming out of the big centers. But I’d have to investigate it a bit further to see if we’re actually getting anything in that’s happening in the Midwest, particularly that’s changing the results. But as you say, we are definitely seeing the engine pick up speed, and our January numbers were stronger again than Q4, which was stronger again than the overall for the year. So, we’re definitely picking up pace.”

TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, DPZ, GMCR, THI, DIN, BAGL, KONA, PFCB

Notable news items and price action from the past twenty-fours along with our fundamental view on select names.

  • MCD Global sales results were released this morning.  Global comps came in at +6%.  U.S. comps gained 4% while Europe and APMEA both produced comps of +6.5%.  The results were impacted by a calendar shift that impacted results by between 0.9% and 1.0%, depending on the area of the world.
  • MCD Japan sales results revealed that April comps came in +3.6% year-over-year.  24 of the 264 doors closed due to the March earthquake/tsunami disaster.
  • DPZ gained 3.7% on accelerating volume. GMCR, THI, and DIN were other gainers that traded with high volume Friday.
  • BAGL, KONA, and PFCB all declined on accelerating volume Friday.

TALES OF THE TAPE: MCD, DPZ, GMCR, THI, DIN, BAGL, KONA, PFCB - stocks 59

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


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