Conclusion: The Conservatives won a majority in Canada’s election, which is supportive of pro-business tax policies and fiscal conservatism.
Position: No position, but we remain bullish on the Loonie for the intermediate term.
Yesterday, we wrote an intraday note analyzing the Canadian federal election. Our view was that based on the results of recent polls that a Conservative majority was unlikely. In fact, the Conservatives won a very decisive majority.
Based on preliminary results, the Conservatives gained 39.6% of the popular vote and 167 seats, which give them a solid majority in Canada’s 308 seat parliament. Interestingly, and this was as predicted by polls, the NDP received 30.6% of the popular vote and 102 seats in parliament. The most noteworthy loss was that of the Liberal party, who for the first time in Canadian history will not be the governing party or the official majority. The Liberals are expected to finish a distant third with 18.9% of the popular vote, and 34 seats.
This election also marks, at least for now, the demise of the Bloc Quebecois, who received only 6.0% of the popular vote and only 4 seats. The Bloc is a Canadian political party that runs only in Quebec and whose mandate is to protect the interests of Quebec in the House of Commons. Aside from the Liberals finishing third, this was really the watershed moment of the election. In the prior six elections, the Bloc had won between 38 and 54 seats. In this election, the province overwhelmingly shifted towards the NDP, who are expected to win 58 seats in Quebec, which is supports a unified Canada.
The Conservatives clearly have a mandate to govern with the results of this election. While there is some risk that the Conservatives shift too far to the right (at least by some critics), from an economic perspective we have been impressed by the results of the Canadian economy over the last couple years, which has been driven, in part at least, by Conservative policy. As such, we view the results of this election as positive for Canada’s economic future.
In the table below form cbc.ca, we’ve highlighted the results from the election.
Daryl G. Jones