This week’s jobless # fell down to 478,000 vs. 498,000 last week (which was a the peak in the chart, see below). All in, this print takes the 4 week moving average UP to 483,000 which is the point on the “Trend” being up, not down.
Our forecast for 6-7% unemployment by year end was considered “too bearish” for most of Q1-Q3 of 2008. Since this is just math, our critics don’t day much about this topic anymore. Revisionist historians are reactive by nature. We will continue to deliver on the promise of highlighting risks to consensus, proactively.