THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - May 3, 2011

 

While it’s proactively predictable to see Geithner politic his way around our “reported” fiscal position, even for him this is impressive.  The Republicans were allegedly waiting until mid-May to put the Democrats feet to the fire on the debt ceiling debate. The US Currency Crash is starting to price this in.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or -1.27% downside to 1344 and 1.16% upside to 1377.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.    

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -511 (-1428)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 935.18 (-4.11%)
  • VIX:  15.99 +8.41% YTD PERFORMANCE: -9.92%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.38 from 1.75 (-21.37%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 23.75 -0.507 (-2.090%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.05% +0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.31 from 3.32
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.70 from 2.71 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks to bankers in Washington
  • 10 a.m.: Factory orders, est. 2.0%, prior (-0.1%)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $24b 52-wk bills, $28b 4-wk bills
  • 4 p.m.: Treasury’s Geithner at U.S.-China Business Council
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Renren, China’s biggest social-networking website by page views, aims to raise as much as $743.4m in U.S. IPO
  • Greek Finance Minister Says Debt Restructure ‘Huge Mistake’ - Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said a restructuring of Greece’s debt, causing losses for bondholders, would lock the country out of markets for a decade or more.
  • Canada’s dollar rose, stocks and bonds may rally after Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper won a majority government for first time.
  • Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfein likely to remain CEO for at least two years - NY Post
  • US steel companies using price escalator clauses in longer-term contracts - WSJ

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Gold, Silver Advance as Signs of Inflation Spur Increased Investor Demand
  • Oil Drops on Economic Growth Concern as Bin Laden Death Boosts Volatility
  • Copper in London Declines for Fourth Day on China, U.S. Manufacturing Data
  • Soybeans Drop For a Second Day as Favorable Weather May Aid U.S. Planting
  • Sugar Falls to Seven-Month Low on Thai Production; Cocoa Prices Decline
  • S. Korea to Boost Tarriff-Free Pork Imports After Foot-and-Mouth Outbreak
  • Dodd-Frank Rules on Swaps and Ratings Targeted by U.S. House Republicans
  • Rail Access to Australia’s Fremantle Port Is Cut After Accident, ABC Says
  • Palm Oil Advances as Gain in Malaysian Exports May Curb Inventory Build-up

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • European equity markets opened mixed before drifting lower in choppy trading.
  • UK Apr Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs consensus 56.9; now at a 7 month low
  • EuroZone Mar PPI +6.7% y/y vs consensus +6.6% and prior +6.6%; EuroZone Mar PPI +0.7% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.8%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

 

ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS

  • Australia keeps main cash rate unchanged at 4.75%
  • India’s  central bank raised benchmark interest rates by a more-than-estimated 0.5 percentage point after forecasting inflation will stay at an “elevated level” until at least September - Bloomberg.
  • China Home Prices Rise; Wen ‘Determined’ to Lower Them - Bloomberg
  • Japan was closed for Constitution Day and will remain closed until 6-May.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more