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Monkey Movement

This note was originally published at 8am on April 27, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“The main question is where this movement will lead us.”

-F.A. Hayek

 

Today is his big day. Today is the 1st day in US economic history that the Almighty Central Planner of US Monetary Policy will hold a press conference with the media immediately following his decision to pander to the political wind. Currency Crashers and Yield Chasers, unite!

 

As Hayek predicted 70 years ago in “The Road To Serfdom” (which Keynes himself called “a grand book” that he agreed “morally” with), this is the long hard road towards socialism that traverses many political conflicts and compromises. Before you watch The Bernank today, take a step back and really think about how Big Government Intervention in our markets has become; you’ll see this certified gong show of Gaming Policy for what it is.

 

“Where these common beliefs of our generation will lead us is a problem not for one party, but for every one of us – a problem of the most momentous significance… Is there a greater tragedy imaginable than that? In our endeavor consciously to shape our future in accordance with high ideals, we should in fact unwittingly produce the very opposite of what we have been striving for?” (Hayek, “The Road to Serfdom”, page 60)

 

As the Monkey Movement hustles us toward prime time advertising dollars, please don’t listen to what storytellers of the Keynesian Kingdom say – watch how they get paid. If there’s any lesson we’ve learned from the Greeks by now it’s that markets don’t lie – politicians do (Greece’s stock market is down another -1.6% this morning, taking its straight down decline since February 18th to -18.3% as Greek bond yields hit record highs).

 

So what do you do with that today?

 

My risk management strategy into the Fed presser is very simple – don’t chase returns; take down your net long exposure; sell high.

 

I made this call in April of 2010 (SP500 dropped -15% to its August low). I made this call again in November of 2010 (November was down, and I got crushed in December). And again in February of 2011 (another -6.5% correction to mid-March where I covered at the YTD low)… again!

 

Two for three in calling for corrections from blow-off US Dollar Debauchery driven tops isn’t good enough. So I am looking at improving upon that … with my longest of long-term risk management calls not changing – BURNING YOUR CURRENCY AT THE STAKE will not end well.

 

If you want to get the US Dollar right, you need to get policy right – and The Bernank, sadly, will remain Indefinitely Dovish.

 

So what do you do with that? I usually start with the what not to do’s:

  1. Don’t go ideological in your portfolio (I’m leaning long ahead of the Fed today – 15 LONGS, 9 SHORTS in the Hedgeye Portfolio)
  2. Don’t sell The Inflation trade (it’s outperforming every global equity market other than maybe Russia for the YTD)
  3. Don’t be a monkey

What are the intermediate to long-term TREND and TAIL implications of the Monkey Movement perpetuating a US Currency Crash?

  1. It perpetuates The Inflation priced in US Dollars
  2. It structurally impairs the sustainability of long-term economic growth
  3. It dares institutional investors to chase “yield”

What am I seeing in the Global Macro Grind this morning that confirms any or all of these realities related to inflation and/or growth?

  1. Chinese stocks closed down for their 4th consecutive day (we’re long them) as the USD hits new lows, inspiring global inflation risk
  2. Brazilian stocks remain down -3.1% for the YTD and bearish from an intermediate-term TREND perspective = inflation risk
  3. Copper continues to breakdown (bearish TRADE and TREND) as global growth slows in the face of USD perpetuated inflation
  4. US Equities are rallying to lower-long-term highs (like Japan’s have for 20 years) on anemic volume and very concerning skew signals
  5. US Financials (XLF) are bearish TRADE and TREND (worst S&P Sector YTD) as a Currency Crash will enforce counterparty and haircut risks
  6. US Treasury Yield Spread continues to narrow (we are long a UST Flattener – FLAT) as US Growth Slows and long-term yields decline

All the while, US Housing is turning into the train wreck (double dip) that we have been calling for in the last year (Case Shiller Home Price Index saw prices drop on a year-over-year basis in 19 of the top 20 US markets yesterday - Washington, DC was the only bull market in housing – long live Julius Caesar’s Roman Empire that plunders its citizenry by clipping their coins).

 

US Housing Demand? The MBA mortgage applications index (our best high-frequency data gauge for demand) plummeted by -13.7% week-over-week this week. Apparently Americans aren’t dumb enough to take on The Bernank’s dare to lever themselves up with a “cheap” long-term liability. Short-term Central Planning, press conferences, and marketing events be damned!

 

My immediate-term support and resistance levels for Oil are now $109.98 and $114.11, respectively (we are long). My immediate-term support and resistance levels for Gold are now 1491 and 1524, respectively (we are long). My immediate-term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1324 and 1350, respectively (we are short).

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Monkey Movement - Chart of the Day

 

Monkey Movement - Virtual Portfolio


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 29, 2011


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 39 points or -1.88% downside to 1333 and 0.98% upside to 1377.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.    

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 52

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 917 (+226)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 975.24 (+1.43%)
  • VIX:  14.75 0.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: -16.90%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.21 from 1.15 (+5.28%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.25
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.39 from 3.34
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.96 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 10 a.m.: Construction spending, est. 0.4%, prior 1.4%
  • 10 a.m.: ISM Manufacturing, est. 59.5, prior 61.2
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections: Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo. bills, $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop progress: Winter wheat, cotton, corn

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • India’s manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in five months and exports climbed to a record, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates
  • Silver futures plunged as much as 13% after CME boosted margins
  • Ralcorp said it received unsolicited takeover proposal in March, board determined wasn’t in best interest; CNBC reported Friday that ConAgra had expressed interest

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Oil Drops Most in Two Weeks After U.S. Says Bin Laden Killed in Pakistan
  • Copper Declines to 7-Week Low as Chinese Manufacturing Declined in April
  • Corn Slips as Dollar’s Gain Cuts Demand for Commodities as Store of Value
  • India Said to Consider Ending Four-Year Ban on Wheat Exports on Stockpiles
  • Rubber Falls as China’s Manufacturing Index Declines More Than Forecast
  • South Korea Seeking to Boost Wheat, Soybean Production to Reduce Imports
  • Commodities Beat Financial Assets for Fifth Month in Best Streak Since ’97
  • Cocoa Bean Exports From Indonesia’s Sulawesi Slump as Sales Suffer Delays
  • Korea Investment Corp. Buys Noble Group Stake to Partner in Infrastructure
  • Funds Slash Bullish Sugar Bets to Two-Year Low as Thailand Supplies Climb
  • Codelco Waning Copper Pressures $17.5 Billion Bet to Catch Boom for Metals
  • Bolivia President Morales to Overturn Laws on Mining, Banking, Investments

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • European indices are trading higher a few hours after the announcement of Osama bin Laden's death.
  • UK markets are closed for a bank holiday.
  • Eurozone April final manufacturing PMI 58.0 vs consensus 57.7
  • Germany April final manufacturing PMI 62.00 vs consensus 61.7
  • France April Final Manufacturing PMI 57.5 vs consensus 56.9

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS:

  • Most Asian markets that were open rose today.
  • China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand were closed for Labour Day.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


THOUGHTS ON THE CONSUMER

Don’t look to the data points on the consumer to support the S&P 500 being at a three year high.  At best the numbers on the consumer this week point to sluggish underlying trends, but the reality is that government continues to prop up the overall consumer picture.  This has been the case for some time, and may continue, but a potent cocktail of slowing growth and accelerating inflation – we call it Jobless Stagflation – is starting to muddle the thoughts of the Central Planners in Washington, D.C.

 

THE JOBS PICTURE IS PUNK - Yesterday, Initial claims rose by 25,000 to 429,000 for the week ending April 23. The increase was noticeably above consensus expectations and follows the previous week’s 12,000 decline.  As our Financials team noted yesterday, reported claims are now at the same level they were in January 2010.  The consensus that “the jobs picture is getting better” may need to be revised back to “the jobs picture is not getting any worse”.   On the margin, this is a potentially bearish change in general expectations.  That being said, a number of temporary factors may have contributed to the rise in initial claims, including auto plant shutdowns because of Japanese supply-chain disruptions and the shift in Easter.  Initial claims have been above 400,000 for three consecutive weeks; the latest gain raised the four-week moving average from 399,250 to 408,500 (the highest since mid-February).  In terms of employment, the recovery story is on ice for now.

 

INCOME FOM UNCLE SAM - Income growth accelerated to 0.5% before adjustment for inflation from 0.4% in February.  The source of the improvement was the government as transfer payments grew far more rapidly than in recent months, led by increased unemployment compensation.  This situation is temporary and without an improvement in core fundamentals, like employment, there will be an increasing case for a pullback in spending – particularly as the buck continues to burn.

 

SPENDING WHAT WE DON’T HAVE - Consumers clearly have the income to spend and as I said the questions of where the income is coming from and how long it can be sustained are front and centre for investors today.  The High-Low society dominated 2010; consumer confidence by income is one chart that illustrates that idea vividly.  A chart of the total enrollment in the Foodstamps program is another image that hits home when one considers the broader economic picture in America today.  Overall, consumer spending moderated in March, despite a slight acceleration in income. Nominal spending rose 0.6%, down from 0.9% in February, while real spending growth slowed from 0.5% to 0.2%.

 

WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE - While the headlines are showing an uptick in April consumer confidence the index gained back only 2.3 of the 10 points it dropped in March.  The index is up 25 points from the November ‘08 bottom and 29 points below its January ’07 high.  By contrast, the S&P 500 is a mere 4.6% off its close on 1/31/07.  The economic drivers of consumer sentiment (housing, jobs, inflation and income) remain very mixed, which are consistent with the low level of confidence.  The inflation of stock prices, a direct result of Ben Bernanke’s easy-money policy, remains the only significant positive influence on confidence at this juncture.  Below, I have a chart indexing consumer confidence by income bracket from January 2010.  I’m sure every investor could weave their own story into this chart but what I see is a sharp relative gain on the part of confidence among the $50k and above bracket following the announcement of QE2 and the stock market rip that followed.  Positive jobs data, it could be argued, bolstered other cohorts at the end of 2010/early 2011.  Even going back to our April Flowers/May Showers call, it is clear to see that the stock market was a huge driver of confidence at that point.   I believe it remains so today and, with earnings strong, many are assuming that it’s different this time.  The terrible trio of Accelerating Inflation, Slowing Growth, and Joblessness has not mattered to equity investors of late.  In our view, it is reckless to “keep dancing while the music is playing” while earnings are peaking and, like in 2Q08, the macro is not being respected.

 

THOUGHTS ON THE CONSUMER - confidence by income

 

THOUGHTS ON THE CONSUMER - umich April

 

THOUGHTS ON THE CONSUMER - umich expct April

 

THOUGHTS ON THE CONSUMER - umich att April

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


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The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 2nd of May through the 6th is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - lac1

The Week Ahead - LAC2


MPEL: STUDIO CITY BACK IN PLAY?

Rumblings from Macau that the project might be back on. 

 

 

Maybe eSun Holdings and New Cotai have finally got their act together?  We’re hearing that is the case and there may be an announcement that the project will resume.  Industry followers may recall that MPEL was chosen to manage this Studio City casino on Cotai.  The project never got underway because of financing issues and partner disagreements.  The situation came to a head last year as eSun and New Cotai sued each other.

 

Our view is that any progress on the project would be a huge positive for MPEL.  As it stands now, MPEL will not commit any capital or be responsible for any expenses.  They will, however, manage the casino, contribute the subconcession, and receive a management fee.  The Studio City site is a good one on Cotai and if developed right, could be a very successful property.  We wouldn’t rule out some sort of equity contribution or financing from MPEL which makes the recent refinancing announcements timely but that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

 

No commentary on the timeline but it does appear that the forces are mobilizing.  Add Studio City to the positive MPEL catalysts which include a booming Macau and big April market share gains for MPEL, and a discounted valuation.  Somewhat offsetting these positives is competition from Galaxy Macau opening on Cotai in mid-May and potentially too aggressive whisper expectations for MPEL’s Q1.


BYI: IF THERE WAS VISIBILITY IT WOULD BE A $45 STOCK

BYI could’ve done a better job of managing expectations but at least they are now admitting visibility is pretty low. Still, the core earnings power of the company appears quite large.

 

 

BYI preannounced so there weren’t any huge surprises in their FQ3 announcement last night.  However, we did walk away from the call feeling pretty good about their 2 year outlook.  While product sales and margins were pretty miserable and the fact that BYI basically admitted that they have no confidence at the moment to forecast their systems business, there were plenty of things to get excited about.  Namely:  Canada, Italy, Australia and New Zealand, gaming operations, BYI’s tender and debt refinancing… just to name a few.

 

Just Italy and Canada can boost BYI’s EPS by $0.33 cents ($0.40 cents if we assume 45MM share post tender) in FY12 and by as much as $0.60 in FY13 ($0.70 cents if you assume 45MM post tender).  That’s before taking into account a pickup in replacements, market share growth and margin improvement from the maturation of the Alpha 2 platform, growth in gaming operations, iVIEW DM, and other new markets.

  • Italy:  $23MM in revenues in FY12 and $44MM by FY13 assuming BYI can roll out 4,500 units with gross margin contributions of $17MM and $33MM respectively, which amounts to $0.20 in FY12’ and $0.39 cents in FY13 of incremental EPS
  • Canada:  We believe that Canada’s system contract is worth about $100MM of revenues that will be recognized over the course of the rollout which should take 2-3 years. Assuming a 3 year rollout, that’s over $8MM of incremental revenues per quarter.   While we don’t expect this business to have +70% margins like the rest of BYI’s system’s business since new installations tend to have lower margins than upgrades, software and maintenance revenues, even if we assume just 50% margins, this deal is worth at least $0.60 or $0.20 per year, plus some recurring revenue thereafter (usually 20% of the deal price).

 

1Q REVIEW

The most disappointing results of the quarter belonged to BYI’s Gaming Equipment segment.  Despite the pre-announcement, BYI’s gaming equipment sales revenue and gross margin still missed our estimate by $3MM and$5MM, respectively.

  • New gaming sales were $8MM below our estimate and margins were just terrible
    • New gaming machines were 700 below our estimate, with the entire miss on the international side.  Earlier in the year, the Company was pretty confident about growth in international sales
    • ASP’s were about 6% higher than we estimated
    • An obsolescence charge of $1.6MM impacted margins by 2.5%
  • Other gaming had its best quarter in 2 years, although we have little confidence that it’s a repeatable event since management didn’t provide a whole lot of color on the call aside from telling us that used sales and conversion kit sales were better this quarter
  • We estimate that BYI’s ship share of NA units was about 14%, the same as the last 2 quarters. We do feel pretty good that we will see their share tick up over the next 12 months by a few percentage points.  Once the platform is mature, we also believe that margins should get to at least the high 40’s.  Moreover, if BYI is able to get more traction in video slots with their new platform, this also presents a nice opportunity for them to grow their relatively small conversion kit business which carries margins in excess of 90%.
  • Systems sales continued to disappoint, despite the pre-announcement, but margins were fantastic… albeit a result of very few new installs and a higher mix of software and maintenance revenue. 
    • We estimate that next quarter systems sales should be at least $55MM vs. $47MM this quarter with the Galaxy Macau opening.
  • Gaming operations had a healthy quarter and great margins due to no jackpot payouts
    • The next two years should see some nice growth from this business
      • Acqueduct will have a partial opening in 1Q12 and add an estimated $10MM of revenues to BYI’s game ops business in F2012 and $16MM in F2013 which will benefit from a full year of operations with the entire facility open
      • We assume that Italian shipments will begin in F1Q202 and contribute $23MM of revenues in FY12 and over $40MM in F2013
  • SG&A was $5MM higher than we estimated
    • There was a $1.8MM bad debt charge in the quarter that was higher than normal for BYI

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%
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