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TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, EAT, KONA, PFCB, PNRA, DPZ, CMG, BWLD

Notable news items and price action from the past twenty-four hours along with our fundamental view on select names.

  • SBUX reported earnings yesterday after the close.  U.S. company comps came in at +7%, EPS was in line with expectations at $0.34.
  • KONA reported a 7.6% increase in 1Q same-store sales after the close yesterday.  Overall, restaurant sales increased 12.3% and restaurant operating margin increased to 14%.  Net loss for the quarter was $0.01 per share and the company is guiding to earnings in the second quarter of $0.02 to $0.04 per share.
  • EAT CEO Doug Brooks is committed to creating shareholder value.  Yesterday he said he would sell Maggiano’s if the right offer came along.
  • BWLD investors will be happy to read that an appeal by the NFL to reimpose a lockout on players while they remain in dispute was rejected by a federal court judge yesterday.
  • CMG and Pinkberry feature in an interesting story about overseas expansion for restaurant companies.
  • DPZ’s Domino’s Pizza U.K. & Ireland is hoping to capitalize on German growth with an all-share purchase of the country’s master franchise and plans to expand the brand from two stores in Berlin to a 400-store empire. 
  • PFCB declined 10.4% on accelerating volume following poor earnings yesterday.
  • PNRA also declined on accelerating volume after worse-than-expected earnings on Tuesday.

TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, EAT, KONA, PFCB, PNRA, DPZ, CMG, BWLD - tott stocks 428

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


PNK 1Q 2011 CONF CALL NOTES

PNK beat our Street high EBITDA estimate and it looks sustainable.

 

 

"We are pleased to report another quarter of year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA growth and continued improvements in operating margins. These improvements reflect the ongoing implementation of operating strategies focused on providing best-in-market experiences for our guests and improving our own internal processes.  We continue to progress with better methods to improve operations and elevate the guest experience."

 

-Anthony Sanfilippo, President and Chief Executive Officer.

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE 

  • The new Stadium Sports Grill and Bar at Lumiere Place will open in early May
  • Baton Rouge project: The three casino hulls were recently moved from the shipyard to the project site along the Mississippi River and construction of the casino is underway.
  • As of March 31, 2011, approximately $290 million of the $357 million construction budget (excluding land and capitalized interest) remains to be invested in the planned Baton Rouge facility.
  • Cash: $143MM, $70MM used in day-to-day operations
  • At the end of 1Q, the Company's $375MM credit facility was undrawn and approximately $9.3 MM LoC were outstanding. The Company expects to begin drawing on its credit facility as construction on its Baton Rouge project further ramps up. 
  • Gross interest expense: $27MM; net interest expense:$26MM
  • Capitalized interest of $0.8MM was related to Baton Rouge project
  • Discontinued operations: Atlantic City: - $2.2MM

 

CONF CALL

  • Cautiously optimistic on consumers
  • 90bps margin improvement ex severance costs
  • Sees shared services at St. Louis (started 6 months ago) making progress
  • L'Auberge and Boomtown New Orleans did very well
  • Boomtown New Orleans efficiency improvements continue into 2Q
  • Tough weather conditions in 1Q, particularly at Belterra
  • Capex:  $38MM ($24MM due to Baton Rouge)
  • Most rivers in Southeast have had abnormally high water levels
  • Baton Rouge: barges are in place; river levels still above normal; now expect summer 2012 opening - pushed back from Q1 2012
  • All Mid-western properties gained share
  • 2011 Marketing expense as % of revs: on track with expectations
  • L'Auberge brand campaign: summer 2011

 

Q&A

  • Severance costs: predominantly corporate; corporate expense; 6.5-7MM run rate for corp expense
  • April trends: continues 1Q trend
  • 1Q Marketing spend: played to expectations; not inflated by myChoice
    • Haven't seen an increase in promotional spend by competitors in their markets
      • St. Louis: special program and brand campaigns drove marketing expense, unrelated to myChoice
    • 1Q myChoice expenses: launch related 
  • Mostly higher consumer spend per visit driving results (even in St. Louis properties)
  • VLTs in Ohio:  encouraged by early thoughts on tax structure
  • Encouraged by early myChoice results
  • myChoice performance metrics: play consolidation, play frequency, migration of tiers, # of new customers YoY
  • myChoice will help retention rate of existing customers
  • Weather impact:
    • Belterra: overall net-neutral; was affected in January
    • South: coastline Lousiana properties not much impact
    • St. Louis: tornado last week no impact
  • St. Louis: early innings of ramp up
  • Louisiana properties: still sees room for improvement
    • L'Auberge: can be better yielded; a lot of work being done
  • Texas: very difficult to pass

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD

Initial Claims Rise 25k ... Give Back All YTD Improvement

The headline initial claims number rose 26k WoW to 429k (25k after a 1k upward revision to last week’s data).  Rolling claims rose 9.25k, breaking up through the 400k line to 408k. Reported claims, which are volatile, are now at the same level they were in January 2010.  Rolling claims are at the same level they were in January 2011, translating to no improvement in claims in the last four months. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims rose 5k WoW.

 

We consider rolling claims the best leading indicator for consumer-related loss frequency for lenders. A failure to realize further improvement in this series will put the brakes on ongoing credit improvement in credit card lending. Mortgage and auto lending are similarly affected. What troubles us is that claims are failing to improve in the midst of strong corporate earnings and ongoing QE2. While much of the rest of the market seems unconcerned about the end of QE2, we think it may lead to a cessation of improvement in claims based on the fact that we observed just that at the end of QE1.

 

Putting claims in context: we have been looking for claims in the 375-400k range as the level that can begin to bring unemployment down.  If this level is held, we expect to see unemployment improve. We consider unemployment to be ~200 bps higher than the headline rate due to decreases in the labor force participation rate. In other words, if the labor force participation rate were at the long-term average level of the last decade, unemployment rate would be 10.8% rather than 8.8%. So when we say that claims of 375-400k will start to bring down the unemployment rate, we are actually referring to the 10.8% actual rate.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - rolling

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - raw

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - nsda

 

Two relationships that we are watching closely are the tight correlation between the S&P and claims and between Fed purchases (Treasuries & MBS) and claims.  With the end of QE2 looming, to the extent that this relationship is causal, it is quite concerning. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - S P

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - fed purchases

 

Yield Curve Remains Wide

We chart the 2-10 spread as a proxy for NIM. Thus far the spread in 2Q is tracking 4 bps tighter than 1Q.  The current level of 271 bps is 2 bps tighter than last week.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - spreads

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - spreads QoQ

 

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RETRACE ALL GAINS YTD - perf

 

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 28, 2011


As advertised, the Bernanke did exactly what we thought he’d do yesterday: (1) Raised his inflation forecast; (1) Cut his GDP forecast and (3) Burned the Buck.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -2.04% downside to 1328 and 0.32% upside to 1360.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.   

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - LEVELS428

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 832 (-530)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 960.95 (+5.67%)
  • VIX:  15.35 -1.73% YTD PERFORMANCE: -13.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.21 from 1.15 (+5.28%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.25
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.39 from 3.34
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.72 from 2.74 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: GDP 1Q advance, est. 2.0% (annualized), prior 3.1%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims, est. 395k, prior 403k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Fed’s Duke, Williams speak at Community Affairs Conference in Virginia
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. (-43.0), prior (-42.6)
  • 10 a.m.: Pending home sales, est. 1.5% M/m, prior 2.1%
  • 10 a.m.: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas Change
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 7-yr notes

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • New Zealand’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low and called the local currency’s rise “unwelcome.”
  • Most emerging-market stocks fell on concern China will raise interest rates as early as next week.
  • U.S. ‘Disappointed’ by India Rejection of U.S. Aircraft - Bloomberg
  • Google May Overtake Apple in App Sales: All Things Digital
  • Deutsche bank profit exceeds estimates as money management reaches record
  • SAP reports 4.1% gain in first-quarter profit, missing analyst estimate



COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Sugar Seen Capped by Record Thai Production, Curbing Nestle, Kraft Costs
  • Gold Climbs to Record as Bernanke Maintains Stimulus, Dollar Extends Drop
  • Copper Climbs for First Day in Three
  • Aluminum Advances to 32-Month High
  • Crude Oil Futures Retreat From 31-Month High
  • Corn Futures Advance in Chicago as U.S. Midwest May Face ‘Severe Flooding’
  • Sugar Falls as Thai Production May Cap Price Gains; Coffee, Cocoa Advance
  • Rubber Futures Advance for First Day in Four as Fed to Maintain Stimulus
  • Abu Dhabi Oil Surges to Three-Year High on Chinese Demand
  • Copper May Drop Next Week as Stocks Gain, China Demand Slows, Survey Shows

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • German unemployment declines to 19-year low as export boom drives demand
  • German unemployment -37K, est. -37k (prior -55k)  
  • German unemployment rate 7.1%, est. 7.0% (prior 7.1%) 
  • Italian business confidence , est. 103.5 (prior 103.8)
  • European stocks climb as deutsche bank beats analysts’ earnings estimates
  • AstraZeneca first-quarter profit beats analyst estimates after tax accord
  • Spain’s local elections may expose wider deficits in risk for bond markets
  • UK consumer confidence declines to lowest since depth of 2009 recession
  • France Mar consumer spending (0.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.2%

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Japan quake takes bigger-than-estimated economic toll; BOJ lowers forecast
  • Japanese earnings push the Nikkei 225 to the highest level since the March 11 quake.
  • Asian stocks were mixed
  • Nomura profit falls 35% as investment banking fees, trading income decline
  • Panasonic plans to cut 17,000 jobs on Sanyo acquisition, television losses
  • China economic growth faces risks from property ‘shocks,’ world bank says; China declined for the 5th straight day.
  • China telecom net income climbs 8.1% on increase in mobile-phone customers
  • Grantham sees one-in-four chance of china stumbling over excess spending
  • RBA faces rate pressure as CPI outweighs record currency

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director



Crystal Clear

“It’s not clear that we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risk.”

-Ben Bernanke, April 27, 2011

 

We’re all for transparency in what it is that we do. The problem with Ben Bernanke’s definition of transparency is that it’s not clear that he knows what he is doing. His forecasts are routinely late and/or wrong, and his decision making process depends heavily on those forecasts.

 

Our Q2 Macro Theme that The Bernank will remain “Indefinitely Dovish” is a forecast. So is our call that the probability of a US Currency Crash continues to heighten. Ben Bernanke did nothing but confirm those forecasts yesterday:

  1. He raised his inflation forecasts
  2. He cut his US GDP growth forecasts
  3. He Burned The Buck

While many critical factors are “not clear” to the Central Planner-in-Chief of globally interconnected markets, the prices that are marked-to-market real-time remain Crystal Clear.

 

Of the Big 3 that I made a call on in yesterday’s Early Look, I had 1 out of 3 wrong:

  1. Long Gold – hitting an all-time high intraday yesterday and again this morning (all-time is a long time), the price of Gold is now in line with the SP500’s YTD return of +7.8% YTD.
  2. Long Oil – rallying immediately as the US Dollar crashed to fresh YTD lows yesterday, the price of West Texas Crude Oil is now up +23.7% for 2011 YTD, outperforming both the SP500 and Gold by a factor of 3:1.
  3. Short SP500 – rallying on low-volume to a fresh YTD high of 1355, the SP500 is up 50 points (+3.8%) in a almost a straight line in the last 7 trading days into a government presser. I think The Bernank calls this “price stability.” We call it the market Gaming Policy.

While my biggest position remains long International Currencies (we have a 30% Global Macro allocation in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model to FX), what a lot of people want to talk to me about isn’t the raging bull market in currencies other than our own – it’s usually “what gets you to cover and buy the SP500.”

 

I get why that is. I think it’s fair. I am accountable to all of the current 26 positions in the Hedgeye Portfolio, particularly those that I have wrong. As Seth Klarman appropriately said earlier this year, “focusing on what you can lose versus what you can earn sets you apart.”

 

So, other than our “free” market’s ability to function without the heavy hand of a Central Planner holding pressers, where am I losing? Here are the updated returns in the Hedgeye Portfolio of the Big 3 aforementioned positions:

  1. Gold = +8.37%
  2. Oil = +5.37%
  3. SP500 = -2.46%

Just like that old nursery rhyme on Romper Room – one of these things is not like the others; one of these things just doesn’t belong… being short the SP500 right here and now is obviously wrong. The score doesn’t lie; people do.

 

Back to the Dollar…

 

While The Bernank’s comments addressing a Crashing US Currency were “not clear” yesterday, the world currency market’s vote was Crystal Clear:

  1. On The Day – the US Dollar lost another -0.5% (that used to be a lot for a day in the world’s reserve currency) to make a fresh YTD low.
  2. On The Week – the US Dollar is down another -1.3% (down for the 14th week out of the last 18 and down -9.8% since January).
  3. On The 28 Months – since Obama and Groupthink Geithner took their seats, the USD is down -17% (300bps away from crashing).

Now please don’t call me a Republican for putting Obama’s name beside the score. I was at least as bearish on Bush and his US Dollar Devaluation policy to inflate as I am on this administration’s grasp of Global Macro markets and how they are interconnected.

 

Interconnected?

 

Yes, correlated – which, suspiciously, was a word that The Bernank didn’t use once in his prepared FOMC statement or presser yesterday.

 

How the world’s Central Planner-in-Chief can use the word “hope” multiple times and not address the most obvious risk that a US Currency Crash imposes on global markets is beyond me. The Audacity of Hope is clearly not a risk management process, so here’s the correlation math:

  1. USD to Oil = -0.92
  2. USD to Gold = -0.92
  3. USD to CRB Index = -0.87

*Note to Timmy and The Bernank: these are what we call the inverse correlations of the US Dollar to Oil, Gold, and the 19 Commodity Component CRB Index on what we call our intermediate-term TREND duration (3 months). These are at all-time highs.

 

The alternative risk management strategy to dismissing either causality and/or correlation risk (the global median inflation rate has been making higher-highs for the last 40 years, effectively since Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard in favor of the Fiat Fool Policy Standard), is to simply believe. Yes, we can all go there – I took my family to see Shamu’s “Believe” in Orlando last week – it was magical.

 

According to Big Broker yesterday (The Banker of America Merrill Lyncher North American Economics Strategist – Ethan Harris) what the Almighty Cental Planner of US Dollar Destruction was doing with this presser thing yesterday was, “teaching the American public about how monetary policy works…” (Bloomberg article by Craig Torres and Josh Zumbrun)

 

Thanks for the transparency. Thanks for the teachings. I may as well gloss over all of world history’s lessons on Currency Crashes now and go back to buying-the-damn-dips in US stocks alongside a stuffed dolphin at Seaworld.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance lines for Gold are now 1499 and 1534 (Gold is immediate-term overbought). My immediate-term support and resistance lines for Oil are now $110.59 and $114.68 (buy more). My immediate-term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1328 and 1360 (I’ll stay short, for now).

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Crystal Clear - Chart of the Day

 

Crystal Clear - Virtual Portfolio


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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