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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 27, 2011


As “the Bernank” prepares the manic media for his 1st Central Planning Conference ever, the US Dollar makes fresh new lows. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.14% downside to 1320 and 0.43% upside to 1341.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.    

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - LEVELS 427

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1362 (+1621)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 909.36 (+30.29%)
  • VIX:  15.62 -0.95% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.00%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.15 from 1.30 (-11.82%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 21.70
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-Year: 3.34 from 3.39
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.69 from 2.72 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 8:30 a.m.: Durable Goods, est. 2.3%
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $35b in 5-yr notes (note earlier time)
  • 12:30 p.m.: FOMC Rate Decision (note earlier time)
  • 2:15 p.m.: Bernanke speaks at Fed press conference

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Nokia to cut 4,000 jobs as it combines research, product development sites
  • Japan debt outlook cut to negative by S&P as quake rebuilding adds to debt
  • The Fed concludes its two-day meeting, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his first post- meeting press conference.
  • Barclays falls up to 4.6% in London as 1q net misses est.
  • Euro-area banks are tightening credit standards on uncertainties about the economic outlook and their access to market financing, the ECB said, citing its Bank Lending Survey.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as Rising Stockpiles Signal Slow Fuel Demand
  • Malaysia Rubber Output May Grow as Higher Prices Spur Tapping, Board Says
  • Sugar Production in Thailand to Reach Record on Yield, Boosting Shipments
  • Copper in London Declines for a Second Day as China Supply Outpaces Demand
  • Wheat, Corn, Soybeans Decline as Investors Await Federal Reserve Meeting
  • Gold, Near Record, Trades Little Changed as Investors Watch Fed Meeting
  • Coffee Crops in Vietnam Benefit as Rainfall Eases Drought Across Dak Lak
  • Fonterra Ships Record Dairy Volumes as 560 Containers Sent to Asia Daily
  • Cocoa Arrivals Drop 14% From Brazil’s Bahia Region, Analyst Hartmann Says
  • Hong Kong Mercantile Bourse to Start Trading With Gold Futures on May 18
  • China’s Wen to Spur Investment, Tap Resources in Visit to Southeast Asia
  • Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Gold Climbs to Near All-Time High as Fed Meets, Car Output

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • European equity markets trade mixed.
  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s endorsement of Mario Draghi as the next ECB chief pressures German Chancellor Angela Merkel to follow
  • European stocks gain for fifth day as technology stock improve
  • Greek, Portuguese yields reach records amid El-Erian ‘lost decade’ warning
  • UK GDP data weaken case for BOE rate increases - 1Q GDP +0.5% Q/q, est. +0.5% (prior -0.5%) 1Q GDP +1.8% Y/y, est. +1.8% (prior +1.5%)
  • Germany May GfK consumer sentiment 5.7 vs consensus 5.8, prior 5.9
  • France April Consumer confidence 83 vs consensus 83, prior 83
  • UK Mar mortgage approvals 31,660 vs prior 30,178 -- BBA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Japan March retail sales (8.5%) y/y.
  • Asian stocks trade mixed.
  • South Korea’s economic growth accelerates, adding pressure to raise rates
  • Singapore economic expansion to spur inflation pressure, central bank says
  • Australian consumer prices jump most since 2006 - Australia Q1 CPI +1.6% seq vs +1.2%; Core inflation +0.9% seq vs +0.7% survey.
  • The Aussie today rose to $1.0852, strongest since it was allowed to trade freely in 1983.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


BWLD – HOT QUARTER

BWLD put together a rare quarter for the restaurant industry, with food costs declining and same-store sales accelerating.  From a ROI perspective, management continues to alter the store base to improve performance by closing underperforming stores.  It was very difficult to poke holes in this quarter.

 

Buffalo Wild Wings announced earnings of $0.81 versus the street at $0.73.  Company same-store sales came in at +3.9%, which implies an 80 basis point sequential acceleration in two-year average trends.   Franchise same-store sales grew +1.6% in the first quarter which implies a sequential acceleration in two-year average trends of 70 basis points.  Consensus was expecting comps at 3.4% and 1.8% for company and franchise restaurants, respectively.  Net earnings grew by 40% year-over-year, far in excess of the annual guidance  of 18%.

 

Same-store sales

 

BWLD – HOT QUARTER - bwld pod 1

 

As discussed above, comps were impressive for the first quarter of the year and I would expect same-store sales to remain strong in 2Q.  As the chart above shows, 2Q is a relatively easy comparison on a year-over-year basis.  For 1Q, the company stated that there was 2.4% of price on the menu during the first quarter.  Management stated on the earnings call that same-store sales for company restaurants during the first four weeks of April were tracking at +5.3% versus -3.7% during the same period of 2010.  While this is encouraging, it is important to remember that the early part of 2Q10 was a low point, and the intra-quarter comparisons become more difficult as we begin to lap the World Cup.  On a year-over-year basis, April comparable restaurant sales growth included 1.9% of price. 

 

The limited-time offers, including burgers, that the company promoted during the quarter proved popular with customers.  A new menu, rolled out during the quarter, also helped drive sales as management noted increased popularity for several new products and sauces recently released.    

 

Management engaged NFL fans as the “NFL Pick ‘Em” promotion winners received a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Another initiative that helped to capture attention for BWLD was the petition the company formed to encourage owners and players to reach an agreement and save the fall football season.  Basketball fans were also engaged with heightened media presence during the NCAA basketball season.  BWLD occupied T.V. spots during every NCAA men’s championship game on CBS including the championship game on April 4th. 

 

Average weekly sales growth for 1Q11 grew by 7.8% year-over-year at company restaurants versus same-store sales of 3.9%.  150 basis points of that outperformance was attributed to the closure of lower-volume restaurants while the remaining 240 basis points, according to management, was due to “quality operations” in the new 2010 and 2011 company owned units. 

 

Operating Margins

 

BWLD – HOT QUARTER - bwld pod2

 

From an operating margin perspective, BWLD had a fantastic quarter.  As the chart above illustrates, restaurant operating margins two-year trends improved 120 basis points.  Much of this was due to the deflation in chicken wing prices as well as moderate year-over-year gains (in percent-of-sales terms) in Operating and Occupancy expenses.  Chicken wing prices for the quarter were $1.22 per pound, down 36% from the average price of $1.91 during 1Q10.  From a cost-of-sales perspective, the outlook for chicken wing prices appears favorable for – in all probability – the remainder of the years.  The boneless wing contract has been extended through March 2012.

 

BWLD – HOT QUARTER - chicken wing prices 426

 

The new menu boosted sales but, of course, came at a cost in terms of training expense.  However, despite this training expense and added investment in hourly labor to drive improve guest service during lunch and happy-hour, leveraging sales growth and management wages enabled the company to keep labor expenses as a percentage of sales flat year-over-year.  

 

Outlook


Management struck a confident tone on the call and, given the performance in 1Q and the favorable post-market reaction in the stock, it is no surprise.  Clearly, the prospect of losing any of the NFL season is a threat to BWLD’s profitability.  However, management emphasized that the 18% growth is achievable even if part of the NFL season is lost.  New markets, most notably California, are performing well and there seems to be ample runway for unit growth to continue.   The company’s cash balance is currently at $91.3 million versus $71.2 million but the company remains conservative on the topic of returning capital to shareholders.  Capex spending in the first quarter was a mere $18.7 million.  For the year, capex is due to total $120-125 million ($100m new company restaurants, $17m remodels, and $6m maintenance capex).   Lastly, the company is guiding to a 34% tax rate for 2011. 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


MCD: MCD VS. YUM

MCD was covered yesterday in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.  Although, I still remain bearish on the name for 2011.

 

In 1Q11, MCD continued to post industry-leading same-store sales in the U.S. (above my estimate), but now below the rate of inflation the company is experiencing.  While the company has raised prices to absorb some of the commodity inflation, there is a strong possibility this could dampen sales trends given that MCD’s U.S. comps are largely guest-count driven (influenced by significant discounting). 

 

Compound this scenario with the difficult year-over-year compares MCD U.S. is facing over the summer months and there is heightened risk of sales trends missing consensus in 2Q and 3Q11.  Keith covered the stock today in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio and the quantitative risk management set up is illustrated in the chart below.

 

MCD: MCD VS. YUM - mcd levls chart

 

 

One pair-trade that could be of interest if you do not agree with my fundamental thesis on MCD would be short YUM and long MCD.  The valuation spread between the two stocks is the widest it has been for some time on an EV/NTM EBITDA basis.  Additionally, it is typically MCD that has been awarded a higher cash flow multiple by the street.  As the chart below indicates, YUM is currently trading at significant premium to MCD.

 

YUM's premium multiple is being driven by strong trends in YUM's China division.  To the degree that YUM's +13% same-store sales in China for 1Q is not sustainable, the valuation disparity between the two name could correct.

 

MCD: MCD VS. YUM - mcd yum spread chart

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


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WMS F3Q 2011 CONF CALL NOTES

WMS F3Q 2011 CONF CALL NOTES

 

 

“WMS’ fiscal third quarter results reflect lower-than-expected global new unit demand, unit shipments expected to be fulfilled in the March quarter not shipping until early April, and delays in the commercialization of certain new products. We’ve already begun to implement the appropriate solutions to address the root causes for the fulfillment issues and we are revising our processes for regulatory submissions to try to shorten the time frames from-concept-to-launch for our advanced technology-based new products."

- Brian R. Gamache, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • “Despite the continued impact of customers’ constrained capital budgets, our strategic direction remains laser focused. We made progress on several fronts in the third quarter including further increases in sales of new units into international markets, a year-over-year increase in average selling prices and progress towards lowering the cost structure and improving the profit margin for our popular Bluebird xD™ units. We also successfully introduced several new games for our participation business that are improving the average revenue per day performance of our installed base."
  • Product sales:
    • New  units sold: 6,058
      • New units to NA: 3,720 (replacements: 3,000)
      • International: 2,338
      • "Growth in Mexico and Australia, and modest growth in Asia and Latin America more than offset lower shipments to Europe. Mechanical reel products were 21% of global new unit shipments in the March 2011 quarter"
    • ASP: $16,492
      • ASPs "rose 3%... , primarily reflecting a product sales mix that benefited from Bluebird2 and Bluebird xD premium-featured units representing 92% of total global new unit sales in the March 2011 quarter, compared to 89% in the March 2010 quarter and 96% in the December 2010 quarter. The average selling price was essentially flat on a quarterly sequential basis, representing a slightly more favorable mix of premium products offset by a greater portion of international shipments of original, lower-priced Bluebird cabinets in the March 2011 quarter."
    • Used machine sales: 2,500 (vs. 2,200 in March 2010)
    • Hardware & conversion kit sales: 2,200 (vs. 3,000 in March 2010)
      • "Other product sales revenues rose ... 12%... driven by higher revenues from low-margin used gaming machines sales, while revenues from higher-margin hardware and game conversion kit sales declined modestly year over year."
    • GM: 48.6%
      • "Reflecting the impact from the introduction this year of the Bluebird xD cabinet, more low-margin used gaming machine revenues and a declining margin achieved on the sale of such units, lower new unit sales revenue, added costs associated with customer changes to existing orders and new orders received late in the quarter, and lower revenues from high-margin conversion kit sales."
      • "Additional cost structure reductions and supply chain improvements are expected to drive higher Bluebird xD and overall product sales gross margins in the June 2011 quarter."
  • Game ops:
    • Install Base (End of period): 10,002 (average: 10,021)
      • Coin in: 3,829
      • % net win:  3,107
      • Daily lease: 3,066
      • "Installed base ... reflects a greater-than-anticipated number of conversions of existing games to newly launched participation games, which reduced the opportunity to grow the installed base. In the March 2011 quarter, WMS launched the new video THE PRICE IS RIGHT- The Ultimate Show, YAHTZEE and Attack from Mars/Revenge from Mars games, and continued the rollout of THE GODFATHER and THE WIZARD OF OZ™- THE GREAT AND POWERFUL OZ games that launched in the December 2010 quarter."
    • Average win per day: $76.14
      • Sequential 2% increase "reflecting the successful introduction of new participation games and historical seasonal influences"
    • "Other gaming operations revenues increased modestly, reflecting revenues from the start-up of the Company’s UK-based online gaming site, partially offset by a decline in royalty income as a result of WMS’ direct entry into markets previously addressed through content licenses to third parties"
    • GM: 60.7%

CALL NOTES:

  • Fulfillment issues: The $8MM delay in fulfillment was due to orders received in the quarter after the cut off date as well as changes to orders late in the quarter. 
  • Believe that customers do not have the increased confidence to increase their budgets to spend on slots
  • Growth in used machine sales continues to depress their margins. 50% of these sales were WMS games. Sales of used gaming machines reduced their margins by 180 bps in the quarter.
  • Deployed 700 new units to their install base, however, most of these games replaced their existing install base games rather than grow the base, but did contribute growth in daily win per day.
  • Invested $30MM in stock repurchases
  • Collection rates remain high and default rates were 1/2 of 1%. Only 2.3% of total receivables were aged more than 90 days - more favorable than their competitors
  • Will provide more color on their F2012 on their next call
  • Portal apps were delayed from original guidance of October to April
  • Adoption of enhanced technologies can experience an extended adoption period - and so they expect the same for portal applications. Plan to maintain pricing flexibility with their earlier adopters.
  • During the last 90 days they have launched multiple games in their G+ Deluxe series - which are amongst their best performing games
  • 400,000 unique log ins have been created to date in Players Life
    • vs 250,000 on their last call 
  • Will continue to opportunistically repurchase WMS shares
  • Began marketing efforts for their UK online site

Q&A

  • Sense of NA ship share?
    • 26-28% range in the quarter but wallet share was more like 30% given their higher ASP. Expect to get back to 30% ship share with their new product launches. Assume high 20s-30ish% ship share in their FY2012 guidance
      • Based on IGT's and Konami's NA units, we estimate that WMS's ship share was closer to 20%- however this is a preliminary #
  • Haven't bought any more stock since April since they have been in a quiet period
  • Pricing didn't enter into their issues in F3Q
  • Their 2012 guidance includes no new markets aside from some Italy units
  • Not giving up on their 30% operating margin goal - they just need more volume
  • Have 107k BB1's out in the field today
  • xD was just over 20% this quarter and it is still at a bit of a lower margin than the BB2 product although they closed the gap a lot. Expect to reach parity in FQ1.
  • Italy - made their initial submissions and hoping for field trial in June, which once completed will allow them to begin sales
  • R&D- they are just below the 15% mark of revenues. They are trying to manage expenses with their revenues.
  • D&A looked a little higher because they have been investing more in their install base to BB2 from BB1. So D&A will continue to be at that higher level going forward.
  • Felt that they were punished for keeping their game ops games out there too long which is why many of the new games are just replacing old games in their base. Expect a nice uptick in win per day over the next two quarters as well as some uptick in their install base.
  • Have an industry leading delivery time of just 2 weeks - which is part of the reason that they had some issues this quarter - which lead to them taking orders too late in the quarter
  • Expect growth to come from game operations, higher ship share penetration - especially internationally, and new business like portal applications and UK casino
  • Is the deployment of the Italy units contingent on a successful trial? - Yes
  • 700 new NA units include shipments to a Ocean Downs, Grand Falls, and a variety of expansions in Canada and the US
  • 25% of their game operations install base is BB2 or xD and plan to change out the rest over the next few years
  • Did not recognize Galaxy Macau in the quarter
  • Had an obsolescence plan for BB1's out there for the next few quarter. Other than that no new marketing initiatives.
  • Great and Power Oz - is doing very well for them - #s close to the original peaks they reached
  • Doesn't believe that their pricing had anything to do with what happened in the quarter

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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