THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 27, 2011
As “the Bernank” prepares the manic media for his 1st Central Planning Conference ever, the US Dollar makes fresh new lows. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or -1.14% downside to 1320 and 0.43% upside to 1341.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1362 (+1621)
- VOLUME: NYSE 909.36 (+30.29%)
- VIX: 15.62 -0.95% YTD PERFORMANCE: -12.00%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.15 from 1.30 (-11.82%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 21.70
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
- 10-Year: 3.34 from 3.39
- YIELD CURVE: 2.69 from 2.72
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications
- 8:30 a.m.: Durable Goods, est. 2.3%
- 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $35b in 5-yr notes (note earlier time)
- 12:30 p.m.: FOMC Rate Decision (note earlier time)
- 2:15 p.m.: Bernanke speaks at Fed press conference
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Nokia to cut 4,000 jobs as it combines research, product development sites
- Japan debt outlook cut to negative by S&P as quake rebuilding adds to debt
- The Fed concludes its two-day meeting, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his first post- meeting press conference.
- Barclays falls up to 4.6% in London as 1q net misses est.
- Euro-area banks are tightening credit standards on uncertainties about the economic outlook and their access to market financing, the ECB said, citing its Bank Lending Survey.
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Oil Trades Near One-Week Low as Rising Stockpiles Signal Slow Fuel Demand
- Malaysia Rubber Output May Grow as Higher Prices Spur Tapping, Board Says
- Sugar Production in Thailand to Reach Record on Yield, Boosting Shipments
- Copper in London Declines for a Second Day as China Supply Outpaces Demand
- Wheat, Corn, Soybeans Decline as Investors Await Federal Reserve Meeting
- Gold, Near Record, Trades Little Changed as Investors Watch Fed Meeting
- Coffee Crops in Vietnam Benefit as Rainfall Eases Drought Across Dak Lak
- Fonterra Ships Record Dairy Volumes as 560 Containers Sent to Asia Daily
- Cocoa Arrivals Drop 14% From Brazil’s Bahia Region, Analyst Hartmann Says
- Hong Kong Mercantile Bourse to Start Trading With Gold Futures on May 18
- China’s Wen to Spur Investment, Tap Resources in Visit to Southeast Asia
- Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Gold Climbs to Near All-Time High as Fed Meets, Car Output
- European equity markets trade mixed.
- French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s endorsement of Mario Draghi as the next ECB chief pressures German Chancellor Angela Merkel to follow
- European stocks gain for fifth day as technology stock improve
- Greek, Portuguese yields reach records amid El-Erian ‘lost decade’ warning
- UK GDP data weaken case for BOE rate increases - 1Q GDP +0.5% Q/q, est. +0.5% (prior -0.5%) 1Q GDP +1.8% Y/y, est. +1.8% (prior +1.5%)
- Germany May GfK consumer sentiment 5.7 vs consensus 5.8, prior 5.9
- France April Consumer confidence 83 vs consensus 83, prior 83
- UK Mar mortgage approvals 31,660 vs prior 30,178 -- BBA
ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:
- Japan March retail sales (8.5%) y/y.
- Asian stocks trade mixed.
- South Korea’s economic growth accelerates, adding pressure to raise rates
- Singapore economic expansion to spur inflation pressure, central bank says
- Australian consumer prices jump most since 2006 - Australia Q1 CPI +1.6% seq vs +1.2%; Core inflation +0.9% seq vs +0.7% survey.
- The Aussie today rose to $1.0852, strongest since it was allowed to trade freely in 1983.