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What Happens in Egypt, Does not Stay in Egypt

 

Conclusion: Watching the Egyptian elections in August will be an early leading indicator on whether or not the Middle Eastern regimes can peacefully transition.

 

Position: Long oil via the eft OIL

 

Since the onset of civil unrest in the Middle East, beginning with the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, our consistent view has been that the Jasmine Revolution will spread throughout the region.  Over the course of the last three months, this has played out in spades.  In the longer term, the geopolitical outcome of the mass civil unrest in the Middle East remains largely unknown.

 

Look no further than Egypt for a prime example of this uncertainty. While the people of Egypt, broadly speaking, were elated when long term President Hosni Mubarak stepped down on February 11th, the future of Egypt continues to remain cloudy. Egypt remains incredibly relevant due to its place as an important American ally in the region and its role in global commerce as the home of the Suez Canal. 

 

In many ways, Egypt will be a real litmus test for the Middle East.  With 85 million people, it is the largest country in the region and geographically it is very central.   Furthermore, Egypt does not have any major tribal or sectarian issues, like many sovereign states in the Middle East, so it should have the best chance at a peaceful and democratic transition.  Not dissimilar to Egypt’s role in the late 1970s when it was the first Arab nation to officially recognize Israel via the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, Egypt’s leadership may usher in a new era in the Middle East.

 

Currently, Egypt is being led by the Egyptian military, who assumed control after President Mubarak stepped down from office.  In theory, this is a positive for the West as the United States is a major funding source for the Egyptian military to the tune of $1BN+ per year by some estimates.  That said, following the August elections in Egypt, the Egyptian military will no longer be in control.

 

The key perceived risk with the August election is that the Muslim Brotherhood will gain control of Egypt.  While the most recent public comments from The Muslim Brotherhood (on their website ikhwanweb.com) were related to Syria, they clearly emphasized the group’s position towards Israel and the United States.  The key excerpt from the release is as follows:

 

“The Brotherhood treasures Syria's good position as a pillar of resistance, embracing Palestinian rights for liberating the land, supporting the armed resistance, embracing the stances of Palestinian faction leaders, and Palestinian and Lebanese legitimate rights while being against the Zionist-American Greater Middle East project.”

 

This is clearly not the most encouraging comment as it relates to peaceful co-existence with Israel.

 

In the 2005 parliamentary elections in Egypt, which were marred with fraud, the Muslim Brotherhood won 20% of the seats and was the largest opposition bloc to President Mubarak.  While the Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t represent the largest percentage of the Egyptian population, more than 90% of the population is Muslim and on some level identifies with this group.  Further, the Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized political entity, which will be a key advantage in the upcoming August elections.  Secretary of State Clinton highlighted this risk this weekend in The New Yorker when she commented on a recent meeting in Egypt:

 

“I looked at these twenty young people around the table, and they were complaining about how the elections are going to be held, and the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamists are so well organized, and the remnants of the old National Democratic Party are so well organized. I said, ‘So, well, are you organizing? Do you have an umbrella group that is going to represent the youth of Egypt? Do you have a political agenda?’ And they all looked up and said no. It made my heart sink.’”

 

As noted, in many ways Egypt remains both a key to future stability in the region and, via its upcoming elections, a crystal ball into the future.  Beyond Egypt, whose outlook remains precarious, the rest of MENA has an even less stable intermediate term political outlook.  We’ve summarized some of the key recent events below.

 

Libya – Reports from the weekend have suggested marginal progress by the Libyan rebels as Gadhafi’s forces have withdrawn from the port city of Misrata.  This was supported by the first U.S. Predator drone strikes, some of which occurred on Colonel Gaddafi’s personal compound.  Despite these events, one thing is clear, the NATO intervention, which began in late March, has been largely ineffective due to its limited engagement and unclear goals.  Absent a larger role from NATO, which would likely be led by the United States, it seems unlikely that Gaddafi will be ousted anytime soon and a deadlock is likely to remain the status quo well into the summer.

 

Syria - Over the weekend, the Syrian army forcefully repressed protestors and “shot their way” into the southern city of Daraa to crack down on anti-government protestors. These military activities were continuing this morning.  Further, security forces encircled certain Damascus suburbs this weekend, including Douma and Madaamiya.  In response, the White House issued the fifth in a series of statements, with the first on March 24th, that denounced Syria’s actions.  So far, the denouncements have had little effect as the government continues to take more aggressive actions against popular unrest.

 

Bahrain – Saudi troops have rolled into Bahrain to settle street demonstrations.  Conversely, Iran has encouraged the protestors in Bahrain.  The derivative impact of this has been calls from the Kuwaiti parliament for the Gulf Cooperation Council to liberate certain indigenous groups from Iran, which has led to an acceleration of tensions between Iran and other Arab states.

 

On March 23rd we gave a presentation of our outlook for crude oil and used the following quote from Tom Friedman:

 

“One thing I can tell you about Egypt: it is not Las Vegas. What happens in Egypt does not stay in Egypt.”

 

This point continues to hold true, especially as the August elections loom in the land of the pharaohs.

 

Daryl G. Jones

Managing Director


IGT FOLLOW UP

Some tidbits that weren’t evident from the earnings release and conference call.

 

  • North American shipment breakdown:
    • The Gun Lake units shipped in the December quarter but were recognized this quarter (650 units)
    • Woodbine Racino in Canada (~235 units)
    • Ocean Downs (300 units)
    • IGT shipped approximately 340 units to Grand Falls in Iowa but the units won’t be recognized until FQ3
  • International shipment details:
    • Asia: 100
    • Australia: 1,000
    • Europe: 500
    • UK: 1,100
    • S. Africa: 200
    • Latin America: 1,800
  • ASP impact of the sale of leased units
    • Patti Hart misspoke on the call; there were just under 500 leased 8960 platform units that were sold in the quarter – not 1,500
    • We estimate that the impact of the discounted units on ASPs was around $245/unit
    • The units were sold from a number of locations
  • SG&A increase
    • Staffing up in the interactive group - $3MM incremental
    • Latin America - $1MM incremental commissions and salaries
    • $1.7MM restructuring charge
    • $3.6MM bad debt expense – which is elevated from the $1.5-2MM
    • High 80s, low 90s or around the same level as this quarter is a good SG&A proxy for the next 2 quarters 
  • D&A
    • Was a little low this quarter but should trend back up a bit
    • $17-18MM per Q is a good run rate
  • New NA shipments will be down in the back half of FY11; especially in 4Q
  • For International, 21-22k for the year is still a good estimate - Galaxy Macau was not in this quarter's #s but will be for next quarter

European Risk By the Charts

Position in Europe: Long British Pound (FXB)

 

As we noted in the European Risk Monitor yesterday, Europe’s sovereign debt issues continue to drag and perpetuate headline risk, however the EUR against most major currencies and most European equity indices continue to shake off these threats under the belief that the heavy hand of the EU and IMF will extend to any and every country that needs financial relief.  If we add continued hawkish comments on inflation from the ECB and weak USD policy to this mix, we think these are the main catalyst driving the strength in the EUR-USD. Keith’s models suggest the EUR-USD has immediate term support at $1.44 and resistance at $1.46, so we’re currently at an overbought level.

 

Risk in Greece and Portugal are the main focal points at the moment. Regarding Greece, discussions surround a potential restructuring of government debt, which we think is a foregone conclusion given the expedient rise in government yields and therefore the severe headwinds in store for future debt issuance and interest payments (see chart of 10YR Greek yields and the other PIIGS below).

 

European Risk By the Charts - m1

 

As always, Greece’s fiscal imbalances are glaring and expanding. Debt as a % of GDP is expected to ramp to 159% in 2012, and PM Papandreou and Co. plan to reduce the country’s deficit from a high of 15.4% of GDP in 2009 to 3% by 2014. We’re of the camp that they’ll come up short.

 

A bailout of Portugal also lingers, with an estimated agreement to the tune of 50-80 Billion EUR set for mid-May. As we present in the chart below, catalysts for this deadline include getting ahead of a hefty payment of government debt (principal and interest) in June (~ 7.1 Billion EUR) and elections for the next government in June.  

 

European Risk By the Charts - m2

 

Not unlike in the US, aggregate public debt levels are increasing across Europe, despite such standouts as the UK that is actively tightening spending and enhancing revenue. Today, Eurozone debt as a % of GDP was released for 2010 at 85.1% versus 79.3% in 2009. We pulled the data back in the chart below. We think we could see a significant slope to the year-over-year change of outstanding debt over the next 3-5 years as the periphery struggles to reduce years of fiscal imbalances.

 

European Risk By the Charts - m3

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst


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Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Higher Highs? SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

If you didn’t know The Bernank is whispering dovishly in these FOMC meetings right now, now you know...

 

We’ve been making this call for the last 2 weeks, but it’s worth repeating - he will remain Indefinitely Dovish through June. US Dollar crash helmets on. The Inflation trade up into the right. Central planners, unite!

 

I didn’t and won’t say this will end well, but I will say that higher-intermediate-term highs in the SP500 (on a close above 1343) are going to be bullish for the very immediate-term TRADE (into the actual Fed decision and press conference – yes, press conference tomorrow, Euro style). That’s why I have cut back the gross short exposure in the Hedgeye Portfolio to 9 shorts this morning (14 LONGS, 9 SHORTS).

 

For the first time since mid-February I am registering what I’ve called the danger zone for US stocks (1) – as in danger that the market pins that price on the donkey, and falls, hard...

 

Interestingly, but maybe not surprisingly, given that a there is a career risk management exercise at work in the institutional performance chasing game associated with higher-highs, I am registering less than a 2.5 standard deviation overbought zone that’s above my prior 1 zone up at 1.

 

So, I’ll wait and watch for 1 Short Selling Opportunity prices (those will still be lower-long-term highs). If I don’t get them, I don’t mind. Patience in the face of a US government sponsored Currency Crash (like Q2 of 2008) is required.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Higher Highs? SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 10


UA: Don't Rush To Cover

We’ve had several folks ask this morning for Keith’s levels on UnderArmour. Here you have it…

Just broke through significant TREND.

If you’re short the name, I wouldn’t rush to cover.

UA: Don't Rush To Cover - ualevel


MGM: CASINO LIKELY LAGGED HOTEL IN Q1

Q1 might be a bit of a disappointment for those expecting the start of a big Vegas recovery.  MGM Macau should blow it out.

 

 

As we wrote on April 14th, in “The MGM Rollercoaster”, we believe that after management promises of a strong first quarter and Street room rate surveys showing double digit growth, MGM’s Vegas results may fall short of investor expectations.  We’re a little less than 5% below Street for EBITDA for the quarter. 

 

1Q2011 Detail:

 

We estimate that MGM will report $1.5BN of revenue and $297MM of EBITDA (consolidated EBITDA less corporate & ESO expense plus JV income) which pans out to be 1% and 5% below Street estimates, respectively.

  • We estimate that MGM’s Las Vegas properties will report $1.1BN of revenues and $225MM of EBITDA, in-line and 3.5% below consensus respectively.  While our RevPAR estimates are likely close to consensus, we believe that growth in casino revenues will be disappointing – up very slightly on average.
    • We assume that RevPAR increases 8.6%, driven by a 5.2% increase in rate
    • While cost controls should be strong, we do expect to see operating costs begin to increase YoY after over 2 years of cost decreases. This quarter should also mark the first quarter of YoY increases in EBITDA.
    • Bellagio: $262MM of revenue and $73MM; 8% increase in RevPAR
    • MGM Grand: $193MM of revenue and $37MM of EBITDA; 5% increase in RevPAR
    • Mandalay Bay: $175MM of revenue and $28MM of EBITDA; 10% increase in RevPAR
    • Mirage: $138MM of revenue and $23MM of EBITDA; 7% increase in RevPAR
  • MGM Detroit estimated at $141MM of revenue and $41MM of EBITDA
  • We estimate that Beau Rivage will report $85MM of revenue and $17MM of EBITDA

Non-consolidated Entities:

  • Borgata: We estimate that Borgata will report $177MM of net revenue and $37MM of EBITDA. MGM’s ownership stake is 50%
  • City Center: Excluding condo sale revenue/and forfeitures, City Center is projected at $241MM of revenue and $42MM of EBITDA
    • Aria: $208MM of revenue and $35MM of EBITDA
    • Mandarin: $9MM of revenue and an EBITDA loss of $1MM
    • Vdara: $13MM of revenue and $1.5MM of EBITDA
    • Crystals: $11MM of sales and $6MM of EBITDA
  • MGM Macau should have another stand out quarter.  We estimate that MGM Macau will report EBITDA of $132MM, down sequentially due to low hold in 1Q compared to estimated hold of 3.1% in 4Q10.  We think that MGM Macau is on track for $550MM of EBITDA in 2011.
    • VIP Table drop $22.5BN and hold of 2.7%
    • Mass table win of $143MM
    • Slot win of $53MM

Other stuff:

  • Corporate Expense: $28MM
  • ESO: $10MM
  • D&A: $156MM
  • Net Interest Expense: $251MM

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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