[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Fed/Europe/Gold

“Dovish Hike” was CNBC pablum. It was a rate hike with Powell guiding to no rate cuts…

1. FED – the market, of course, cuts rates for the Fed well before they formally cut – particularly in recessions, that’s why stocks go down while the Fed is cutting (see 2001 and 2008 to be Macro Aware on that)
• post Powell (nice job btw, bud) my #VASP Signal Setup = 2yr yield Risk Range has a big higher-low now at 3.65% at the LOW end which is > long-term TAIL support of 3.59%, and…
• the 10yr yield is signaling a big LOWER-HIGH at 3.92% at the TOP end of my Risk Range, so that’s a green light to add to my new Long Duration Asset Allocations (EDV, BNDD, and IIGD) and obviously staying with Gold
2. EUROPE – staying with my 4 new European Shorts this morning too (remember we went to 5 European Equity Shorts on green earlier this week: EPOL, EWD, EWI, EWL, EFNL) after the Swiss National Bank hiked by +50bps which was hawkish given their recent Credit Suisse Bailout – European tightening into a #Quad4 Recession, again! Good spot to re-enter the EUR/USD Short too…
3. GOLD – did I say we’re Long Gold? In addition to the new Long Duration positions I added Physical Gold (AAAU) to my pile earlier this week and kept buying more GLD in the middle of my Risk Range. Why? Did I say I like Gold? Immediate-term upside towards $2008/oz. Shorting more Oil and Energy Stocks (XOP, PSCE, UAE, etc.) against that again this morning too

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.34-3.92%

KM