THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 25, 2011


The Inflation trade remains in place; US Dollar down (down 13 of the last 17 weeks); continued signs of growth slowing with copper down -1.2% this morning (bearish TREND); while monetary inflation skyrockets (gold and silver hitting new highs).  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 20 points or -1.37% downside to 1319 and 0.12% upside to 1339.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


The Financials remain the only sector broken on both TRADE and TREND.    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 425

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 952 (-1033)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 812.78 (-15.44%)
  • VIX:  14.69 -2.52% YTD PERFORMANCE: -17.64%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.60 from 2.17 (-26.33%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.30
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06%
  • 10-Year: 3.42 from 3.43
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.74 from 2.74 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 10 a.m.: New Home Sales, est. 280k (up 12%), prior est. up 250k (down 16.9%)
  • 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, est. 13.4, prior 11.5
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections, grains
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 4 p.m.: Crop progress (winter wheat, cotton, corn)

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Average pump price climbed 11.5c to $3.88 thru April 22: Lundberg survey. Obama said last week a task force will examine if oil, gas prices driven higher by market manipulation. 
  • Nike (NKE) may be poised to climb as it works to control rising materials and labor costs, Barron’s
  • China’s 2011 trade surplus may narrow to 2% of GDP because of rising commodity prices, Reuters says, citing a report from the State Council’s Development Research Center.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Silver Surges to All-Time High as Investors Seek Protection From Inflation
  • Crude Oil in New York Rises a Fourth Day as Middle East Violence Escalates
  • Copper Drops in New York on Signs of Ample Supplies in China, Biggest User
  • Palm Oil Declines as Lower Malaysian Exports Threaten to Boost Inventories
  • Corn Advances as Rains Delay Seeding in U.S.; Wheat Jumps to 2-Month High
  • China's Corn Imports May Expand This Year to 2 Million Tons, Baize Says
  • Rubber in Tokyo Declines as Demand May Weaken on Reduced Car Production
  • Hedge Funds Bullish on Natural Gas as Nuclear Output Falls: Energy Markets
  • Corn, Soybeans May Rise as Cold, Weather Slows U.S. Seeding, Survey Shows
  • India Gold Imports May Fall for Third Month on Prices, Industry Group Says
  • Tsunami Quickens ‘Terminal Decline’ of Northern Japan’s Fishing Industry
  • Most China Aluminum Capacity Lacks State Approval, Business News Reports
  • Corn Seen Topping Wheat on Demand, Raising Tyson's Costs, Helping Syngenta  

 

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • European markets are closed in observance of the Easter holiday

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Asian stocks were mixed overnight on earnings concerns and China declined on increased inflation concerns.
  • Japan March corporate services price index +0.4% m/m, (1.2%) y/y.
  • Japan March supermarket comps +0.3% y/y.
  • Hong Kong’s market is closed for a holiday.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director