Nice little markup into yesterday’s US close had zero follow-through in Asia or Europe this morning…
- ASIA – getting uglier, faster, now that the Hang Seng is confirming it’s recent Bearish @Hedgeye TREND Signal breakdown and Dr. KOSPI -0.5% overnight remains Bearish TREND alongside India (INDA) -0.9% which we remain short – and this all happening despite a Bullish #Quad1 CPI print out of China at +1.0% FEB vs. +2.1% JAN
- RATES – while bulls are hoping for a change in Fed Policy, they keep getting the change they can’t afford (a more HAWKISH Fed), so this has the Short-End of The Curve pinned up at 5.05% on 2s this morning and the Long-End dealing with The Cycle Slowing (30yr Yield 3.90% is -115bps inverted vs. 2s!), think about that…
- QQQ – surprisingly complacent pricing of NASDAQ risk here heading into the jobs report with #NazVol probing the LOW-end of my Vol of Vol Risk Range around 24 and Implied Volatility DISCOUNTS of -5% for QQQ and -8% for XLK (vs. 30-day realized)
Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.86-4.10%
KM