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European Risk Monitor: Peripheral Risk Pops as Finnish Elections Inflect

Position in Europe: Long British Pound (FXB)

 

As is typical for Mondays, we release our weekly European Risk Monitor. This morning peripheral risk premiums have popped dramatically in response to 1.) ongoing concerns that Greece must restructure its debt, 2.) Finnish elections over the weekend that saw the anti-bailout/euro-skeptic True Finns party gain significant share, 3.) widening yields from a Spanish bond issuance, and 4.) Moody’s decision to downgrade long-term deposit ratings of five Irish banks to junk.

 

As we’ve seen over recent weeks, European sovereign debt contagion fears have accelerated.  While Greek leadership continues to deny that its public debt needs restructuring (a position also held by French finance minister Christine Lagarde), the Germans under finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble continue to press in opposition. As the debate heightens, the market is sending a clear signal, with Greek sovereign CDS jumping a full 112bps day-over-day to 1262bps as the Greek 10YR bond yield gained 65bps to an all-time high of 14.5% today! (see chart below)

 

European Risk Monitor: Peripheral Risk Pops as Finnish Elections Inflect - CDS11

 

European Risk Monitor: Peripheral Risk Pops as Finnish Elections Inflect - yields22

 

Finnish parliamentary elections on Sunday further weighed on the region as the True Finns more than quadrupled its share of the vote to 19% (to place third) under a platform opposed to Eurozone bailouts.  According to exit polls, the conservative National Coalition Party of current finance minister Jyrki Katainen leads with 20.2%, followed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (which also opposes further bailouts unless private investors and lenders are forced to take financial losses) with 19.4%. While the weeks ahead will bear out the structure of a coalition government, the True Finns’ gain under the leadership of Timo Soini puts into play an inflection in Finland’s traditional pro-Europe stance, and complicates a potential bailout for Portugal assuming a new Finnish government rejects further bailouts and unanimous approval must be reached by all Eurozone member states to grant new rescue loans.

 

Rounding out a thick flow of European news this AM, Spain sold €3.51 Billion of 12M bonds at an average yield of 2.770%, far outpacing the previous issue a month ago of 2.128%, and €1.15 Billion of 18M bills at 3.364% versus 2.436%.  Additionally, Moody’s downgrade the long-term deposit ratings of Allied Irish Banks, EBS Building Society, and Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings by two notches to Ba2, and ICS Building Society and Bank of Ireland (one and two steps respectively) to Ba1, the highest junk rating. This follows Moody's decision last Friday to downgrade Ireland's debt two notches to Baa3.

 

In response, Spanish CDS jumped 13bps to 246bps and Irish CDS rose 30bps day-over-day to 589bps. Our weekly European Financial CDS monitor indicates that bank swaps in Europe were wider week-over-week, widening for 34 of the 39 reference entities and tightening for 5 (see chart below).

 

As yields push up and credit ratings deteriorate, it will be more and more difficult for Europe’s periphery to (re)finance its debt. This should spell underperformance, in particular from the peripheral capital markets, yet associated weakness could also spill over to the region’s most stable countries, and in particular the common currency that up until this week was pushing against $1.45 versus the USD on higher benchmark interest rates form the ECB and a continued drag on the USD from weak US fiscal and monetary policy.

 

We covered our position in Spain today in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio with the country getting hammered down to our immediate-term TRADE support level. Our long-term TAIL view of Spain remains bearish.

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

 

European Risk Monitor: Peripheral Risk Pops as Finnish Elections Inflect - banks333


WYNN YOUTUBE

As we wrote in our preview on 4/7/2011, we believe WYNN had a big Q1 in Vegas and Macau.  In preparation for WYNN’s Q1 earnings release tomorrow, we’ve put together the pertinent forward looking commentary from WYNN’s Q4 earnings call. 

 


YOUTUBE

 

MACAU

  • “We’ve been adding junket operators, and we’ve got one or two more coming this spring [2Q].”
  • “With two additional junkets, you could see that ratio [10-15% direct] go to the lower side, for sure. But the direct business is still up, well over 50% for the year, and is continuing to grow. But Linda grows them one customer at a time.”
  • “In Macau, the credit balances outstanding with our associates in the junket business are very large. We, on our own account, reserve 3% or 4% for bad debt.”
    • “Our reserve as a percentage of receivables is 47% right now in Macau, which is very, very comfortable.”
      • Q: How does that compare to the other operators?
        • A: Much higher
  • “And I’m hoping that we can get started in March, or April, at the latest. It’s a landfill, as you know, at Cotai, and so there’s remediation that takes place for the foundation work that adds six or seven months to normal construction time.”
  • [Cotai opening] “I think late ‘14, early ‘15 would be my best guess.”
  • [2011] “Somewhere between 20% and 22% of our room nights will be convention this year.”
  • [Wynn Encore Macau] “There’s actually still room to grow there. So, especially on the weekends, we were always capacity-constrained with our rooms, so adding the 414 rooms and suites really helped us out. Another thing that we’ve done is, as everybody’s mentioned, we’ve added some junkets. And, in fact, we continue to modify our floor, to increase capacity with both our VIP and, especially, also our high-limit mass areas. That’s been extremely well received.”
  • “We actually built spaces [in Wynn Encore Macau] that were smaller on purpose. And you just heard what Matt said, what’s the multiple?....Three-and-a-half times for fourth quarter and two-and-a-half times for the year…. Also, there’s a lot of opportunity in our slot revenue. We’ve restructured our slot operation for 2011. It will be completed here in a few days, and we’re going to have a jump there.”
  • [Cotai] Well, now that the plans are finished, it’s in the hands of Wynn Design & Development to create a construction budget, and that process has just begun, and I’m not quite ready to say, but I think $2.5 billion is a comfortable number for us. We’d have no compunction about spending that kind of money on the facility, with all of its entertainment potential. And so – and as far as I mentioned a few minutes ago, as far as when we get started, that’s up to the government. They’ll tell us. And I expect that it’s not very far away.” 
  • “I would not tell you that our credit has loosened. I would say that our business volumes have increased. We’ve kept our reserve methodology the same throughout, and we’ll continue to do so in the future. We continue to be very prudent about junket partnerships. We have more people interested than we require, and we add very organically. We’re very careful in our due diligence, and the relationships we have with our junket partners are true partnerships.” 
  • “I think if you look at the very peak times that happen in the city over the Golden Week holidays, everybody manages to get in. We’re able handle incredibly high volumes. I think the infrastructure side of things is a bit over talked about. There are good things happening in the next 18 to 24 months. We have the Pac-On Ferry Terminal goes through a considerable expansion. The Gongbei border gate is increasing capacity of daily arrivals by up to 60%. And there’s more ferry services being put online to Macau. So the market seems to be able to handle the additional customer arrivals, so I don’t foresee an imminent problem. And the beauty of Cotai coming on stream in late ‘14, early ‘15, is the monorail system will be up and running from the Pac-On Ferry Terminal around our property on two sides. So the government has reacted. There’s more taxis in the marketplace. Macau is a small city. When it’s very busy, it does get a little bit choked at key times, but that’s the same everywhere in the world.” 
  • [Galaxy Macau impact] “It should be good for the market, too, because the market does not have enough hotel rooms to accommodate the people on the weekends. So I think it will be good for Cotai and good for the market overall.” 

 

VEGAS  

  • “Our room rates are up a little. Our occupancy is okay. Our convention bookings are ahead of last year. I’m saying that these indicators are pointing up. Slots are still weak, but the indicators about visitation and room rate and convention bookings, which are very important for the mid-week period, are pointing up.”
  • “In terms of areas of opportunity for growth in 2011, we’re continuing to see improvements in domestic business, and so we’re seeing lots of opportunity there. Obviously, Matt already talked about the convention opportunities that we have here in Las Vegas. We’re expecting that to really help us on the room side this year.”
  •  “We raised rates – we have just remodeled the entire Wynn facility.  We have between 2% and 3% of our rooms still under remodel. We finish by April, the end of April. And the amount of rooms that are out of order – suites and villas – is down to 2% or 3% now, so it really doesn’t matter a lot.”
  • “We are running at around 9,300 FTEs right now, and we think that is a good run rate, even if business volumes do increase. So our fixed costs right now, we feel pretty comfortable with, and any increase in cost should really be more on the variable side. So that’s the beauty of these hotels with operating leverage, as things get better, your margins get better.” 

 

GENERAL

  • [Corporate expense] “Better run rate is closer to the third quarter – which was, excluding stock-based comp, around $18 million – as a run rate going forward.”
  • “So at 12/31, about half of the cash is at the parent – a little more than half – and the rest is at subsidiaries, mainly Wynn Macau, which was $1.3 billion.”
  • [Q] “I believe you said that it would be a very long time before you would develop anything in the United States again, and I wondered if you still think that’s true.”
    • [A]I don’t still think it’s true. I changed my mind.”

Breakdown: SP500 Levels, Refreshed...

POSITION: Short SPY

 

Life is good. Risk management is hard.

 

Given the heightening probability of a US Currency Crisis (see slides and replay from our Q2 Global Macro Themes call we hosted on Friday), it shouldn’t be a conceptual surprise to see the SP500 slicing through both our immediate and intermediate-term levels of risk management support: 

  1. TRADE = 1319
  2. TREND = 1302 

As I wrote on Friday, citing Baupost’s Seth Klarman, “There’s an invisible tipping point – when we get there, it’s far too late.”

 

We didn’t need a ratings agency to remind us of that.

 

The long-term TAIL of support for the SP500 is still intact, but it’s a lot lower – down at 1186.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Breakdown: SP500 Levels, Refreshed... - 1


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%

MACAU ACCELERATING, AGAIN

Trending +HK$20BN for April

 

 

Macau continues to defy expectations with this past week actually accelerating from already strong weekly revenues.  Through April 17th, total table gaming revenues were HK$11.7 billion and average daily revenue exceeded HK$688 million month to date.  Total April gaming revenues including slots are now on pace for HK$20.0-21.0 billion, up 52-59%, and that assumes a pre-holiday slowdown the rest of the month.

 

In terms of market share, MPEL and WYNN are the standouts while Galaxy and SJM are “struggling”.  Of course, with market numbers like these, market share probably isn’t such a concern.  Here is the data:

 

MACAU ACCELERATING, AGAIN - macau


TALES OF THE TAPE: PZZA, MSSR, DRI, WEN, BJRI

Notable news items from the past few days, Friday’s price action, and our fundamental view on select names.

  • PZZA President and Co-CEO Jude Thompson resigned from the pizza chain Friday, leaving the company in the hands of founder and co-CEO John Schnatter.
  • PZZA was cut to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
  • PZZA shares gained prior to the news announcement (AMC) by 1.9% on accelerating volume.
  • MSSR many delay its AGM if Tilman Fertitta has his way.  Fertitta is calling for shareholders of the company to sign a gold proxy card giving LSRI, a subsidiary of Fertitta’s Landry’s Restaurants Inc., power over their share for the meeting.  This would prevent a quorum being reached, effectively impeding the company from addressing its business at the meeting until first discussing LSRI’s unsolicited tender offer.
  • DRI made the cut for JPM’s “Best Equity Near-Term Ideas” report led by Thomas Lee.  JPM's price target is $56.
  • WEN gained on accelerating volume on Friday.
  • BJRI shares gained 2.82% on accelerating volume.

TALES OF THE TAPE: PZZA, MSSR, DRI, WEN, BJRI - stocks 418

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


Sovereign debt concerns in Europe are mounting, once again, as Greek two- and ten-year government bonds slumped, driving yields to the highest level since before the inception of the Euro.  Oil has declined as Saudi Arabia’s oil minister says that markets are “oversupplied”. 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1105 (+878)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1040.22 (+16%)
  • VIX:  15.32 -5.84% YTD PERFORMANCE: -13.69%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.11 from 1.50 (40.67%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 21.32 -0.075 (-0.351%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07%
  • 10-YEAR: 3.43 from 3.51
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.72 from 2.74

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 08:30 a.m.: Housing Starts: est. 520k, prior 479k
  • 08:30 a.m.: Building Permits: est. 540k, prior 517k
  • 08:30 a.m.: Housing Starts MoM % Chg: est. 8.6%, prior -22.5%
  • 08:30 a.m.: Building Permits MoM% Chg: est. 1.1%, prior -8.2%
  • 10:00 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher, Lockhart to discuss globalization in Atlanta
  • 11:00 a.m.: Export Inspections (corn, wheat, soybeans)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $30b in 3-mo., $28b in 6-mo. bills.
  • 12:30 p.m.: Fed’s Bullard to speak on banking rules in Kentucky
  • 04:00 p.m.: Crop progress report

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. 2yr yield falls to 3-week low before housing data at 10 a.m, median est. 17 by 39 analysts:
  • Pulitzer Prize winners announced, 3 p.m.
  • ECB’s Bonello urges caution against rate hikes at the expense of economic growth
  • Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom agree on JV to save EU1.3b
  • Ferrari IPO should be worth $7.3b, Marchionne says

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATIONS:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Snickers-to-Noodles Surge Drives Cooking Oil Supplies to Three-Decade Low
  • China Said to Limit Industrial Corn Use to Meet Demand For Livestock Feed
  • Oil Declines in New York After Saudi Arabia Says Market Is `Oversupplied'
  • Hedge Funds Raise Bearish Gas Bets After ‘Dead Cat Bounce’: Energy Market
  • Corn Falls for Second Day as China Raises Reserve Ratios to Cool Inflation
  • Coffee Climbs as Rains May Delay Colombian Harvest; Cocoa Prices Advance
  • Gold Falls as Some Investors Sell Following Advance to Record-High Price
  • Copper for Three-Month Delivery Declines 0.5% to $9,360 a Ton in London
  • Minmetals Will Raise Up to $864 Million in Share Sale to Fund Zinc Project
  • China Has ‘Pent-Up Demand’ for Sugar, May Buy 1.8 Million Tons, ANZ Says
  • Palm Oil Gains After Drop to Lowest Price in Four Months Lures Some Buyers
  • Corn, Soybeans May Rise as Wet, Cool Weather Stalls Planting, Survey Shows
  • Singamas May Raise Container Prices 11% on Higher Steel Cost, Japan Quake
  • Gold-Shortage Threat Drives Texas Schools Hoarding 664,000 Ounces at HSBC

 

CURRENCIES:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Bonello Urges ECB Caution in Raising Rates as Most-Indebted Nations Trail
  • European Stocks, U.S. Futures Slide as Banks, Insurance Companies Retreat
  • Greek, Portuguese Government Yields Surge to Records on Default Concerns
  • Ferrari Should Be Valued at $7.3 Billion in IPO, Marchionne Tells Bankers
  • Czech Central Bank Governor Says Mixed ‘Signals’ Are Clouding Rate Outlook
  • Allied Irish Swaps Decline on Concern Payout at Risk in Any Restructuring
  • France Telecom to Make Joint Purchases With Deutsche Telekom to Save Money
  • London Homes' Asking Prices Rise to Record Amid Shortage, Rightmove Says
  • Sberbank Joins Credit Suisse to Set Up $1 Billion Investment Russia Fund
  • Czech Central Banker Says Preventing Crises by Regulation Is ‘Nonsense’
  • BOE Should Maintain Key Rate at Record Low as Recovery Struggles, E&Y Says
  • Ruble Eurobond Yield Lowest to Domestic Spurs Second Sale: Russia Credit

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS:

  • China Raises Reserve Ratio to Curb Inflation as Zhou Pledges More to Come
  • Most Asian Stocks Retreat on China Policy Tightening Concern; AIA Surges
  • BOJ Said to Forecast Inflation Accelerating to 0.5% for Year to March 2012
  • G-20 Targets ‘Too Big to Ignore’ Economies as Growth Will Outweigh Shocks
  • Hysan Says Causeway Bay Rents to Narrow Price Gap With Hong Kong’s Central
  • ‘Ugly’ Inflation Drives Biggest Bond Selloff Since January: India Credit
  • China's Huawei Closes In on Ericsson After Revenue Triples Over Five Years
  • Kissinger’s ‘Basket Case’ Bangladesh Targets Record Growth in Three Years
  • Pimco ‘Open to Adding’ Investments Across Asia as Gross Shuns Treasuries
  • Temasek's Mapletree Commercial Raises $718 Million in Singapore Share Sale
  • Hong Kong's Home Prices to Drop When Fed Policy Shifts: Chart of the Day
  • Hong Kong Canary Singing Commodities Boom Peaking in Aussie Mine: Real M&A

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA


MIDDLE EAST:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Early Look

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