POSITION: Short SPY
Life is good. Risk management is hard.
Given the heightening probability of a US Currency Crisis (see slides and replay from our Q2 Global Macro Themes call we hosted on Friday), it shouldn’t be a conceptual surprise to see the SP500 slicing through both our immediate and intermediate-term levels of risk management support:
- TRADE = 1319
- TREND = 1302
As I wrote on Friday, citing Baupost’s Seth Klarman, “There’s an invisible tipping point – when we get there, it’s far too late.”
We didn’t need a ratings agency to remind us of that.
The long-term TAIL of support for the SP500 is still intact, but it’s a lot lower – down at 1186.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer