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Q2 KEY MACRO THEMES REPLAY PODCAST & SLIDES

Q2 KEY MACRO THEMES: FINDING STABILITY AMID HEIGHTENED VOLATILITY  

REPLAY PODCAST & SLIDES

Today, April 15, 2011, 11am EDT

 

Valued Client,

 

Hedgeye's Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough and Managing Director Daryl G. Jones, recently hosted their quarterly themes conference call. The key topics included: 

  • Year of the Chinese Bull (Bullish on Chinese equities and the Chinese yuan)
  • Deflating the Inflation (Inflation Scenario Analysis)
  • Indefinitely Dovish (U.S. Interest Rate Scenario Analysis)

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Replay Podcast:

http://www.hedgeye.com/feed_items/12926

 

Presentation Slides:

http://docs.hedgeye.com/2Q11%20Key%20Macro%20Themes2.pdf

 

If either hyperlink fails to work, please copy & paste it into the URL of your browser.

 

Regards,

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Buying Greek Islands Cheap

Today the Greek government announced that it will issue an additional €26 Billion in austerity measures and sell €50 Billion in state-assets to meet its targets to reduce the country's public debt and deficits. Bottom line: Greece is accelerating its position on the road to the Keynesian Endgame.  While the measures announced today may at best quell investor fears over the short run, longer term the government is putting another band-aid over the deep fiscal imbalances that are not being properly accounted for by the government.

 

So what’s on the chopping block? The Greek Finance Minister put to auction today stakes in the Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (HTO) and Public Power Corp (PPC), estimated to yield €15 billion by 2013 and €50 billion by 2015.

 

With Greece’s debt estimated to ramp to 159% of GDP in 2012, and expectations to cut the budget deficit from a high of 15.4% of GDP in 2009 to 3% by 2014, as the government works against €13.1 Billion in debt (principal and interest) due in the months of April and May (of the some €42.5B due this year), while the Greek 10YR yield rips to over 13% -- we’d say the country is 1.) going to need a far greater life line and/or solution to restructure its debt, and 2.) rife for some more civil unrest.

 

In the meantime, be patient and wait for your price on a beautiful Greek island to call your own. Bon weekend!

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

 

Buying Greek Islands Cheap - greek island



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Sweden In the Sweet Spot

Positions in Europe: Long British Pound (FXB); Short Spain (EWP)

 

Conclusion: Swedish economic fundamentals remain strong as the Riksbank sends a clear message of interest rate tightening to head off inflation. Yet the threat of higher capital requirements on Swedish banks looms as a competitive drag. We’re bullish on Sweden’s growth profile and sober fiscal policy, yet are not currently invested in the country. We’ve previously used the etf EWD as an investment vehicle in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.

 

If you’ve followed our work over the last years you’d know how critical we’ve been on the policy of global central bankers. In particular, we’ve positively noted the proactive monetary moves (interest rate hikes) from the central banks of Australia, China, and Sweden to control inflation and entice investors through a higher cost of capital, while Bernanke at the Fed refuses to see The Inflation, and has kept benchmark rates artificially low around 0% for the last 29 months. 

 

Sweden’s government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s, who won another four years in office in September, said this week that his government plans to reduce taxes for a sixth consecutive year in 2012, and outlined an economic game-plan for the next 2-3 years, including steps to further hike interest rates, which we applaud.  We contend that rate hikes from Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) are consistent with the country’s proactive policy action and will be bullish for Scandinavia’s largest economy and boost the Swedish krona against major currencies.

 

 Below are the government’s updated forecasts:    

  • GDP will expand 4.6% in 2011 versus a forecast of 4.8% last month [GDP grew 5.5% in 2010]
  • Unemployment will fall to an average of  7.3% in 2011; 6.6% in 2012; and 5.8% in 2013
  • Consumer Prices (Index) will rise 2.5% in 2011; and 2.0% in 2012
  • Swedish krona will rise to 8.70 per euro at the end of 2011 and weaken to 8.80 per euro at end of 2012, according to Finance Minister Anders Borg, who also said gains will be tempered by rising interest rates outside the country
  • Central bank’s benchmark rate would reach 2.25% this year (currently at 1.50%); 3.25% in 2012; and level out at 3.75% percent in 2013

Sweden In the Sweet Spot - SEK

 

To the last point, Sweden’s Riksbank has raised its key rate five times since July, from a low of 0.25% to 1.5% in February 2011, largely in response to home price inflation. We think their guidance to continue to tighten will help head off headline inflation (CPI at 2.9% in March Y/Y), and quell housing inflation that is being driven by a lack of supply. The interest rate moves should also strengthen the krona against major currencies, which is up a monster 30% versus the EUR since a low in early May ’09!

 

Sweden has enjoyed the safe haven trade (along with Switzerland) given sovereign debt contagion across the Eurozone for the last 18 months. For an economy that is heavily levered to exports for growth (~50% of GDP), a strong krona is certainly a headwind worth considering. While we’ve not seen significant evidence of such to date, and finance minister Borg makes a fair point that investors will increasingly chase yield outside of Sweden as global central banks further tighten, the impact of a strong krona is worth investment evaluation.

 

 

Banking Rebound vs Regulatory Drag:

 

The position of Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves remains that Swedish lenders should imposing tighter standards than those set out by the Basel Committee and enforce the rules faster than Basel’s 2019 start date. Additionally, finance minister Borg said in March that banks should prepare for a 1% increase in capital requirements every year over the next few years. The obvious implication here is the competitive drag on Swedish lenders if they’re required to carry higher capital ratios versus their peer banks.

 

For reference, most Swedish lenders already have lofty Tier 1 capital ratios, largely in response to their weak positions in 2008-2010 as a result of their leverage to bad loans to the Baltic states. Of the major lenders (Nordea Bank, Svenska Handelsbanken, SEB, and Swedbank), the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority has measured most lenders to have Tier 1 ratios in the range of 8.9% to 10.3%, with Swedbank at 13.4%.

 

In short, Swedish lenders look to be well capitalized and cognizant that banks can’t take on the risks they did pre-Lehman, emphasizing the importance of raising tier 1 capital ratios. That said, should Swedish lenders be mandated to have capital ratios above their European peers, we’d expect underperformance from these banks and a commensurate drag on the broader equity indices. 

 

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst


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