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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 15, 2011


Today at 11am we are hosting our 2Q11 Global MACRO Theme conference call (email if you’d like to participate). 

  1. American Sacrifice  - a scenario analysis and calendar of catalysts for the US Dollar
  2. Trashing Treasuries – long of The Bernank’s Inflation, short US Treasuries
  3. Housing Headwinds II – part deux in the Josh Steiner chronicles of the best Housing work on Wall Street

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 19 points or -0.50% downside to 1308 and 0.95% upside to 1327.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

We now have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 8 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 227 (+126)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 894.31 (-0.73%)
  • VIX:  16.27 -3.84% YTD PERFORMANCE: -8.34%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.58 from 1.68 (-6.21%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 20.96
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.07% +0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.51 from 3.49
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.74 from 2.74 

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Consumer Price Index, est. 0.5% M/m, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Empire Manufacturing, est. 17.00, prior 17.50
  • 9 a.m.: Net long-term TIC flows, est. 40.0b, prior $51.5b
  • 9:15 a.m.: Industrial production, est. 0.6%
  • 9:15 a.m.: Capacity utilization, est. 77.4%
  • 9:55 a.m.: UMich Confidence, est. 69.0, prior 67.5
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks in NYC
  • 11:15 a.m.: ECB’s Constancio speaks in New York
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • 1:30 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig to speak on economy at Purdue

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Pressure for CVS Caremark to split up increasing - NYT
  • T. Rowe Price considers exiting UTI Asset Management - Economic Times
  • Fed reports balance sheet assets of $2.67T on Wednesday, +$16.8B w/w and +$326.8B y/y
  • Broadcasters ask CRTC to look at regulating Netflix - Globe & Mail
  • Dunkin' Brands planning a summer IPO, says CNBC's Kate Kelly
  • Treasuries rise as the Fed and President Barack Obama consider cutting stimulus measures for the U.S. - Bloomberg
  • Groupon may pick Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters for planned IPO later this year, said to value company at $15b-$20b: WSJ
  • G-20 finance ministers, bankers meet this weekend in Washington.

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Quest for ‘Holy Grail’ of Super Corn Intensifies on Fertilizer Price Surge
  • Oil Heads for First Weekly Loss in a Month Amid Inflation, Demand Concern
  • Wheat Declines, Erasing Advance, as Russia and Ukraine May Add to Supply
  • Copper May Fall for a Fifth Day as Record Chinese Output Increases Supply
  • U.S. Probably Won’t Repeat Last Summer’s Record Heat, Forecasters Predict
  • Sugar Falls on Brazil Production, Reduced Goldman Forecast; Coffee Rises
  • Gold Is Little Changed After Reaching Record on Global Inflation Concern
  • Copper Production in China Climbs to a Record on Higher Fees After Quake
  • Orphanides Says Not Clear Price Pressures From Commodities Will Fade Soon
  • K+S Bets on Higher Potash Prices on Demand as Investments Constrain Growth
  • Toyota’s Molten Aluminum Turned Into Lump Shows Post-Quake Power Challenge
  • Commodity Trading Rules Are a Target for Worldwide Securities Regulators
  • Oil May Rise Next Week on Mideast Unrest, Saudi Output Cuts, Survey Shows  

 

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Moody's downgraded Ireland to Baa3 from Baa1; outlook negative.
  • Greek government will decide today on additional measures to cut its deficit.
  • Eurozone March final CPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.6% prior revised to +2.4% from +2.6%
  • Eurozone March final CPI +1.4% m/m vs consensus +1.3% and prior +0.4%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Asian stocks were mixed as inflation and growth accelerate more than estimated in China.
  • The Chinese central bank may boost reserve requirements for lenders as early as today - Bloomberg
  •  Inflation in India also exceeds estimates at 8.98%.
  • China Q1 GDP +9.7% y/y vs cons +9.5%; March CPI +5.4% y/y vs cons +5.2%; March PPI +7.3% y/y vs cons +7.2%.
  • Japan revised February industrial output +1.8% m/m vs initial +0.9%.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - LEVELS 415

Howard Penney

Managing Director