TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 14, 2011
Peru fell 6.2% bringing the biggest three-day decline since October 2008 to 12% on concern opposition candidate Ollanta Humala will win the presidential runoff in June and expand government control of the economy. Year-to-date the market is down 20% making it the world’s second-worst performer after Egypt. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.34% downside to 1310 and 0.96% upside to 1328.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
Yesterday, the Financials broke TRADE and TREND. We now have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 8 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 101 (+1599)
- VOLUME: NYSE 900.85 (-5.13%)
- VIX: 16.92 -0.99% YTD PERFORMANCE: -4.68%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.50 (+12.59%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 22.48 -0.250 (-1.100%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% +0.01%
- 10-Year: 3.49 from 3.52
- YIELD CURVE: 2.74 from 2.75
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 8:30 Initial Jobless claims
- 8:30 PPI
- 9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Ford may slow or stop production in Asia this month due to Japanese-made-part-shortage - Detroit News
- Justice Department, SEC looking into Libor rigging - WSJ
- US foreclosures decline (35%) y/y in March according to RealtyTrac
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- European Union Wheat Struggle Means No Relief From Near-Record Food Prices
- Copper Falls for Fourth Day on Concern China Tightening May Erode Demand
- Crude Trades Near Lowest in Two Weeks as Gains on Gasoline Supplies Fade
- Soybeans Decline as Brazil Increases Exports, China May Sell From Reserves
- Gold Trades Little Changed at $1,457.57 an Ounce, Paring Earlier Advance
- Sell Silver as Gold Ratio Signals Slump, Commodity Broking's Barratt Says
- Uranium Producers in Takeover Play as Assets Exceed Share Price: Real M&A
- Gold Producers' Stocks Are Cheap, Former BlackRock Fund Manager Birch Says
- BRIC Leaders Say Increasing Commodity Prices Pose Threat to Global Growth
- Dwindling Cattle Herds Garner Ranchers Subsidized Loans: Argentina Credit
- China Developer Seeks Approval for $157 Million New Zealand Farms Purchase
- Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Glencore to Raise up to $11 Billion With IPO
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
- European equity markets moved lower from the open, with the exception of Ukraine and Hungary.
- Peripheral markets were among the leading fallers on continuing debt worries - Russia, Greece Italy and Spain leading the way down
- Irish Central Bank Says Sovereign Debt Concerns Remain and pose threat to euro growth
- Central bank cuts 2011 Ireland GDP forecast to 0.9% vs. 1% and sees Ireland 2012 GDP at 2.2%
- The FTSE and DAX holding intermediate-term TREND lines of support, while Greek stocks look like they could start to crash, again.
ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:
- Asia saw broad based weakness, albeit controlled; pricing in a US growth slowdown
- China fell 0.26% after a rumor that March inflation was 5.3-5.4%; the official figure is to be announced tomorrow.
- India rallied hard up 2.25%
MIDDLE EAST
Howard Penney
Managing Director