THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 14, 2011

Peru fell 6.2% bringing the biggest three-day decline since October 2008 to 12% on concern opposition candidate Ollanta Humala will win the presidential runoff in June and expand government control of the economy.   Year-to-date the market is down 20% making it the world’s second-worst performer after Egypt.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or -0.34% downside to 1310 and 0.96% upside to 1328.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

Yesterday, the Financials broke TRADE and TREND.  We now have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 8 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 101 (+1599)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 900.85 (-5.13%)
  • VIX:  16.92 -0.99% YTD PERFORMANCE: -4.68%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.68 from 1.50 (+12.59%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 22.48 -0.250 (-1.100%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% +0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.49 from 3.52
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.74 from 2.75 

 

 MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 Initial Jobless claims
  • 8:30 PPI
  • 9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Ford may slow or stop production in Asia this month due to Japanese-made-part-shortage - Detroit News
  • Justice Department, SEC looking into Libor rigging - WSJ
  • US foreclosures decline (35%) y/y in March according to RealtyTrac

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • European Union Wheat Struggle Means No Relief From Near-Record Food Prices
  • Copper Falls for Fourth Day on Concern China Tightening May Erode Demand
  • Crude Trades Near Lowest in Two Weeks as Gains on Gasoline Supplies Fade
  • Soybeans Decline as Brazil Increases Exports, China May Sell From Reserves
  • Gold Trades Little Changed at $1,457.57 an Ounce, Paring Earlier Advance
  • Sell Silver as Gold Ratio Signals Slump, Commodity Broking's Barratt Says
  • Uranium Producers in Takeover Play as Assets Exceed Share Price: Real M&A
  • Gold Producers' Stocks Are Cheap, Former BlackRock Fund Manager Birch Says
  • BRIC Leaders Say Increasing Commodity Prices Pose Threat to Global Growth
  • Dwindling Cattle Herds Garner Ranchers Subsidized Loans: Argentina Credit
  • China Developer Seeks Approval for $157 Million New Zealand Farms Purchase
  • Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Glencore to Raise up to $11 Billion With IPO  

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • European equity markets moved lower from the open, with the exception of Ukraine and Hungary. 
  • Peripheral markets were among the leading fallers on continuing debt worries - Russia, Greece Italy and Spain leading the way down
  • Irish Central Bank Says Sovereign Debt Concerns Remain and pose threat to euro growth
  • Central bank cuts 2011 Ireland GDP forecast to 0.9% vs. 1% and sees Ireland 2012 GDP at 2.2%
  • The FTSE and DAX holding intermediate-term TREND lines of support, while Greek stocks look like they could start to crash, again.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

  • Asia saw broad based weakness, albeit controlled; pricing in a US growth slowdown
  • China fell 0.26% after a rumor that March inflation was 5.3-5.4%; the official figure is to be announced tomorrow.
  • India rallied hard up 2.25% 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 414

Howard Penney

Managing Director