LVS PREVIEW IF ANYONE ACTUALLY CARES ABOUT ITS EARNINGS

On a fundamental basis, the LVS Q1 might be ho hum. Nothing about this company is ever just ho hum.

We still think LVS will beat formal consensus estimates but it may not be the blowout quarter that people have become accustomed.  The stock reaction may hinge on whether any information emerges regarding the Jacobs situation.  Otherwise, we’re not so sure there will be enough in the fundamentals to drive the stock significantly higher.

We estimate that LVS will report $2.2BN of revenue and $749MM (3% ahead of consensus) of EBITDA in 1Q2011.

Macau

We project that LVS’s Macau properties report EBITDA of $348MM and net revenue of $1,152MM, 1% below and 5% above Street estimates, respectively.  Specifically, our EBITDA estimate is in-line with the Street for Sands, 5% below the Street for Venetian, and 21% above the Street for Four Seasons.

SANDS

We estimate that Sands Macau to report $88MM of EBITDA and $332MM of net gaming revenue  

• Project gross gaming revenues of $400MM and net gaming revenues of $325MM
  • $236MM of gross and $161MM of net VIP table win
    • $8.8BN RC, up 37% YoY, assuming 15% direct play
    • 2.7% hold
    • 86bps rebate rate
  • Mass table win of $138MM
    • $684MM drop (up 16% YoY)
    • 20.3% hold
  • Slot win of $26MM
    • $417MM handle (up 15% YoY)
    • 6.2% hold
• $7MM of non-gaming revenues, net of promotional allowances
• Variable expenses of $198MM ($156MM of gaming taxes and $32MM of incremental junket commissions over the rebate rate)
• $4MM of non-gaming expenses
• $48MM of fixed expenses

VENETIAN

We estimate that Venetian will report $652MM of net revenues and $210MM of EBITDA

• Gross gaming revenues of $660MM and net gaming revenues of $559MM
  • $338MM of gross and $237MM of net VIP table win
    • $12.4BN RC, up 24% YoY, assuming 19% direct play
    • 2.7% hold
    • 82bps rebate rate
  • Mass table win of $269MM
    • $1,120MM drop (up 21.5% YoY)
    • 24% hold
  • Slot win of $53MM
    • $737MM handle (up 10% YoY)
    • 7.2% hold
• $93MM of non-gaming revenues, net of promotional allowances
• Variable expenses of $318MM ($257MM of gaming taxes and $43MM of incremental junket commissions over the rebate rate)
• $24MM of non-gaming expenses
• $101MM of fixed expenses

FOUR SEASONS

We estimate that Four Seasons will report $168MM of net revenue and $50MM of EBITDA

• Gross gaming revenues of $198MM and net gaming revenues of $147MM
  • $153MM of gross and $103MM of net VIP table win
    • $4.8BN RC, up 30% YoY, assuming 51% direct play
    • 3.17% hold
    • 105bps rebate rate
  • Mass table win of $33MM
    • $129MM drop (up 30% YoY)
    • 26% hold
  • Slot win of $11MM
    • $186MM handle (up 25% YoY)
    • 6.0% hold
• $21MM of non-gaming revenues, net of promotional allowances
• Variable expenses of $86MM ($77MM of gaming taxes and $4MM of incremental junket commissions over the rebate rate)
• $8MM of non-gaming expenses
• $25MM of fixed expenses

Singapore

We estimate that Marina Bay Sands will report net revenue of $586MM and EBITDA of $321MM, 3% and 4% below consensus estimates, respectively.

• Gross gaming revenue of $592MM and net gaming revenue of $471MM
  • Slot win of $111MM
    • $2,019MM slot handle and 5.5% hold
  • Mass table win of $230MM
    • Hold of 22.2% and drop of $1,036MM
  • Net VIP table win of $130MM
    • $9BN of RC volume, 2.8% hold, and a 1.35% rebate rate
• Non-gaming revenue, net of promotional allowances of $116MM
• Variable expenses of $109MM – primarily consisting of $103MM of gaming taxes
• Estimated fixed expenses of $157MM

Las Vegas

We estimate that Venetian and Palazzo will report $360MM of net revenue and $117MM of EBITDA, 7% and 18% ahead of the Street, respectively.

• We estimate that Venetian and Palazzo will report net casino revenues of $141MM
  • $53MM of slot win
    • 5% YoY increase in slot handle to $670MM
  • $110MM of table win
    • 7% YoY growth in table drop and 18.8% hold
  • Rebates and discounts of $22MM of 3.7% of gross casino revenues
• Rooms revenue of $129MM (assuming mid-high, single digit RevPAR growth)
• $90MM of other non-gaming revenues, after promotional allowances
• $244MM of total operating expenses

 

Pennsylvania

We estimate that Sands Bethlehem will report $91MM of revenues and $22MM of EBITDA, 2% and 8% ahead of Street estimates.

• We estimate $85MM of gaming revenues
  • $65MM of slot revenue and $20MM of table revenue
  • $7MM of other revenue
• $39MM of gaming taxes
• $30MM of fixed expenses

Other Stuff:

• Corporate expense: $40MM
• Rental expense: $11MM
• Net interest expense: $79MM
• D&A: $185MM