Hedgeye - RECESSION RISK RISING ➜ Layoffs Ahead ➜ WE’RE HIRING

The U.S. economy is a slow-moving train wreck waiting to happen.

We started warning investors about the impact of a slowing U.S. economy in January 2022. The stock market crashed.

That might seem like yesterday’s news, but … PAY ATTENTION!

We continue to think what comes next will surprise investors and job-seekers alike. The risk of recession continues to rise. Unfortunately, a lot of unsuspecting Americans could lose their jobs.

We’re already seeing the initial signs of a cracking in U.S. labor market. Right now, the issues are most visible and acute in the Tech sector where almost 500,000 layoffs have already occurred between 2022 and 2023.

That’s just the tip of the spear.

As venture, private equity and public equity markets cool off, Wall Street is getting squeezed as well. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Blackrock have recently announced job cuts. We think a fresh round of layoffs is just around the corner.

We have a positive message to share for anyone hit by the effects of a slowly-deteriorating U.S. economy…

WE’RE HIRING…

As an independent financial research firm built around risk management, Hedgeye thrives during market downturns.

BOTTOM LINE: There’s never been a better time to join Hedgeye.

This is nothing new. We have a long history of picking up talent when Wall Street is cutting headcount. Consider the Great Financial Crisis.

In September 2008, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote a seminal note to subscribers, “Call Us – We’re Hiring.” Here's a portion of what he wrote.

“The goal of this game is to go to where the puck is going next, and that’s what we have been proactively preparing for here at [Hedgeye] since I left Wall Street at the end of October of 2007.”

“I am moving my immediate downside target for the S&P 500 to 1196.86. We have an 84% cash position, and we are hiring. I am getting on a train to New York City right now to meet with those interested in seizing this opportunity to re-build the trust that Wall Street has lost.”

The rest, as they say, is history.

The S&P 500 fell almost -50% from when Keith wrote that note. And with multiple economic and market downturns under our belt since 2008, Hedgeye has gone from fewer than 20 employees during the Great Recession to greater than 80 employees today.

If you’re thinking about making a change, from Old Wall Street (with all its conflicts of interest) or some sleepy corporate desk job to a fast-growing, no-holds barred financial research company, consider these open Hedgeye job listings:

Apply here.

If you’re concerned about the security of your current job, you may have good reason. We expect the U.S. economy to slow through at least mid-2023. If we’re right, risk assets will continue to be hit, capital market funding will dry up, and corporate America will be forced to tighten its belt.

We’re seeing this most acutely already in the Tech sector.

Tech Layoff Tracker: In 2023, there have been 773 layoffs at tech companies with 224,707 people impacted (impacting roughly 2,200 per day versus 667 people per day in 2022... a 230% increase YoY).
Tech Open Positions: 167,945 (down -64.9% from its peak)

(Source: Trueup)

As the bubbliest sectors of the economy blow-up first, the cracks in Tech and Crypto are beginning to percolate. In other words, more layoffs ahead.

As the Mother of all Bubbles pops in Tech, Wall Street is fast on its heels.

Goldman Sachs began laying off staff in January. The job cuts were one of the biggest ever about 3,200.
Morgan Stanley shed 1,600 employees in December.
Citigroup eliminated dozens of jobs across its investment banking division.
BlackRock is cutting up to 500 jobs.
Bank of America plans to reduce as much as 200 bankers globally

This is only the beginning.

As our Macro team wrote in our 1Q 2023 Macro Themes presentation:

“We’re seeing fragility at the high beta/unprofitable fringe (i.e. unprofitable Tech layoffs ↑↑, etc) that will hit “higher-quality” companies as conditions deteriorate further and the main thrust of higher rates makes its way to Main Street.”

So here’s the deal.

Wall Streat is cutting headcount. Hedgeye is hiring. The words Keith wrote back in that 2008 note to subscribers is just as true today as it was back then…

“We are proactively prepared to service our clients with the best research platform, people, and process in the industry. We have zero counterparty exposure, and we are looking to help you wherever we possibly can.

I am getting on a train to New York City right now to meet with those interested in seizing this opportunity to re-build the trust that Wall Street has lost.”

Our goal since Day 1 has been to deliver “Hedge fund quality research to all investors.”

If that mission sounds appealing and you’re looking to make a change, join us. We look forward to reviewing your resume.