We will have our “Eyes” on the Palin-Biden debate tonight. Not so much because we think either Vice Presidential candidate will say anything interesting, but because we believe the potential for an October surprise game change in this Presidential election will result from the Vice Presidential camp. While rumors have been rampant about Biden withdrawing due to “health reasons”, we think that a Palin withdrawal is even more likely given her very weak recent interview performances and Senator Obama’s decided margin in Real Clear Politics National Poll Average, which is currently showing him with a +5.7 point lead. The current Intrade contract for a Palin withdrawal is $10.2, which implies a 10% chance she will withdrawal. This is up from ~4% one week ago.
Daryl G. Jones