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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - April 5, 2011

Dollar rises against euro and yen and the futures are looking lower as Bernanke says Fed will act if inflation more than “transitory.”  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or -1.12% downside to 1318 and 0.61% upside to 1341.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

We are on day 2 of perfect with 9 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 225 (-908)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 770.67 (-14.57%)
  • VIX:  17.50 +0.57% YTD PERFORMANCE: -1.41%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.15 from 2.22 (-3.40%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 24.60
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.06% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.45 from 3.46
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.68 from 2.66

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7:45 a.m.: ICSC Weekly retail sales
  • 10 a.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies to Senate panel
  • 10 a.m.: ISM Non-manufacturing, est. 59.5, prior 59.7
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $24b 52-week bills, $40b 4-week bills
  • 12:45 p.m.: Fed’s Kocherlakota gives remarks in Minneapolis
  • 12:45 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Stone Mountain, Ga.
  • 2 p.m.: FOMC minutes released
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • French government revises 2012 growth down to +2% from 2.5%
  • Moody's downgrades Portugal's bond ratings to Baa1 from A3, still under review down
  • Poland’s central bank may raise its benchmark rate by 25bp to 4%
  • Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in the developed world.
  • Nasdaq to reduce weighting of Apple in Nasdaq-100

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Silver Advances to Most Expensive Versus Gold Since 1983 on Inflation Risk
  • Copper Rises in London Trading Before U.S. Services Report: LME Preview
  • Oil Drops First Day in Four on Signs U.S. Demand Easing as Supplies Gain
  • China's 8% Growth to Bolster Consumption of Copper, Aluminum, Chalco Says
  • Gold May Advance on Libya, Inflation Concern; Silver Reaches 31-Year High
  • Rubber Futures in Tokyo Reach One-Month High on Yen, Thai Supply Concerns
  • Corn Near 33-Month Peak on Shrinking Supplies as Wheat at Four-Week High
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivory Coast Conflict May Be Ending; Coffee Prices Decline
  • Beef, Pork-Price Gains Boosting U.S. Craving for Chicken: Chart of the Day
  • Australia Posts First Trade Deficit in Year as Disasters Disrupt Exports
  • Kazakh Uranium Miner Seeks to Raise India, U.S. Sales Before Possible IPO
  • Extract Expects to Fund $1.7 Billion Uranium Project Amid Reactor Crisis

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

European markets trade lower with the periphery again in focus and particularly Ireland, Spain and Portugal; Turkey and Switzerland are bucking the negative trend.    

EuroZone Feb retail sales +0.1% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised +0.4% from +0.7%
Mar final Services PMI:

  • France 60.4 vs preliminary 60.7
  • Germany 60.1 vs preliminary 60.1
  • EuroZone 57.2 vs preliminary 56.9
  • UK Mar Services PMI 57.1 vs consensus 52.5 and prior 52.6

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIA PACIFIC MARKTES:

The Asian markets turned in a mixed performance; China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were closed for Ching Ming Festival. Australia February trade balance (A$205M) vs consensus A$1.2B and the central bank  keeps interest rates unchanged, as expected.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 45

Howard Penney

Managing Director