Chart of the Day | December Medicare Advantage Enrollment ~8.15% YoY UNH, ANTM, MOH, CI, AET

12/20/22 07:30AM EST

Chart of the Day | December Medicare Advantage Enrollment ~8.15% YoY UNH, ANTM, MOH, CI, AET - 2022.12.20 Chart of the Day

As CMS and Congress get more vigilant about sales and marketing practices of Medicare Advantage Plans, the plans sponsors themselves have probably already gotten the message. Although the number of eligible Medicare beneficiaries is growing at about 2% YoY, a rate very similar to 2021, YoY % growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment has been decelerating from a peak of 10.11% in Feb. 2021 to 8.15% as of the December enrollment print.

CMS has issued a proposed rule that would ban such practices as holding "education events" about the Medicare Advantage program, followed by a sales pitch. Plan sponsors would also be required. when advertising, to present information on a specific plan rather than general information. For those of us forced to watch CNBC, CMS's restrictions come as welcome news. 

When considering the chart above, I find it interesting that YoY% enrollment growth is accompanied by a YoY% deceleration in those eligible. It is also accompanied by a pandemic when the elderly were encouraged to stay at home, making them ideal targets of aggressive sales pitch and broadcast advertisements. We should expect, then, Annual Open Enrollment for the Plan Year 2023 will be more in line with a pre-pandemic trend of ~7.00%

Let me know your thoughts,

Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy



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