POSITION: Short SPY
I should have paid more attention to how many people disagreed with my “Short Covering Opportunity” call on March 16th. Evidently a lot of people who weren’t hedged slapped on short exposure at the YTD lows. Evidently “should have” still only works in a liberally organized game of Canadian horseshoes (with beverages).
From an intermediate-term TREND and long-term TAIL perspective, nothing has changed. The SP500 continues to make a series of lower-highs on low volume. From an immediate-term TRADE perspective, the immediate-term range has tightened up to 1. On the margin, that’s less bearish than what we outlined last Wednesday. Higher prices do that.
Back to the intermediate-to-long-term, if the SP500 were to breakout above 1343 … and volume started accelerating on the upside… and the VIX breaks down through long-term support (15.44)… then one of those 2 duration statements will render itself void – the intermediate-term TREND will turn bullish. Long-term, like Japan, we think the outlook for a country attempting to manipulate asset prices through Fiat Fool monetary policy will fall on its own sword of expectations…
Being Duration Agnostic has helped us Wait & Watch for 1. That’s where I’ll put my second bullet in this Flailing Bull.
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer