THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 29, 2011


Month end and quarter end markups look like a foregone conclusion in global equity markets this morning – never doubt the inexorable force of our profession making sure we it gets paid.   As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -1.02% downside to 1306 and 0.65% upside to 1328.

PERFORMANCE


As of the close yesterday we have 8 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The XLF is the only sector to be broken on TRADE. 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - SECTOR VIEW

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1090 (+1677)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 804.39 (+2.56%)
  • VIX:  18.16 -6.58% YTD PERFORMANCE: +2.31%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.73 from 1.82 (-4.63%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 21.07
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.50 from 3.47
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.69 from 2.66

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • US MBA Mortgage purchase applications index (1.7%) last week; total market index (7.5%) compares to +2.7% and +2.7%; refi index (10.1%) vs. +2.7%
  • 7:30 a.m.: Challenger job cuts
  • 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change, est. 208k, prior 217k
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $29b in 7-yr notes
  • 1:30 p.m.: Fed’s Hoenig speaks at London School of Economics
  • 2 p.m.: Fed’s Lacker testifies at Dodd-Frank at hearing
  • 4 p.m.: Fed’s Bullard speaks at UBS dinner in London

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Obama’s job approval hits low, with overall rating 42% late March vs 46% March 3: Quinnipiac University poll.
  • Bullish sentiment increases to 51.6% from 50.6% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll (Bearish sentiment increases to 23.1% from 22.4%; those expecting a market correction decreases to 25.3% from 27.0%
  • Hearing of House Financial Services subcommittee on the Dodd-Frank Act
  • Paul Allen criticizes Bill Gates in new book “Idea Man,” excerpted in Vanity Fair
  • Libyan rebels retreat under fire from Qaddafi’s troops. Insurgents driven back to the oil port of Ras Lanuf, according to reports on Al Jazeera television and the Benghazi-based newspaper Breniq

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Soybeans Rise to Highest Price in a Week as U.S. Farmers May Sow More Corn
  • Sushi Purchases From Japan Canceled Amid Concerns About Radiation Leakage
  • Thai Rubber Losses May Total 20,000 Tons as ‘Freak Weather' Lashes South
  • Japanese Oil Ports Still Open to World’s Five Largest Crude-Tanker Lines
  • Cocoa Falls on Speculation Ivory Coast Disruption May Ease; Coffee Drops
  • Palm Oil Advances on Speculation U.S. Farmers May Reduce Soybean Planting
  • Copper Fluctuates on Concern About Economic Growth, Prospects for Demand
  • Gold May Climb as Libyan Fighting, European Debt Concern Increase Demand
  • Vietnam to Expand Rice Areas to Boost 2011 Output by 1 Million Tons
  • Ivory Coast Rebels Advance South, Closing in on Abidjan and Key Cocoa Port
  • Japan Testing Farmland for Radiation Before Start of Rice-Planting Season

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS


European markets rose to a 3 week high; longest winning streak since December. 

MACRO: European confidence slipped in March; 107.3 from 107.9.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

ASIAN PACIFIC MARKTES:


The Nikkei 225 gains to the highest level since the earthquake; Japan February industrial output +0.4% m/m vs consensus (0.2%).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - setup

Howard Penney

Managing Director