TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 29, 2011
We are looking at the short end of the yield curve to tell us where the political wind is blowing – that’s where the politicization is – and we’re seeing a huge move higher in 2yr yields here, implying no Quantitative Guessing III (QG3).
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -1.39% downside to 1292 and 0.98% upside to 1323.
PERFORMANCE
As of the close yesterday we have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 8 of 9 sectors positive on TREND. The XLU is the only sector to be broken on both TRADE and TREND.
- One day: Dow (0.19%), S&P (0.27%), Nasdaq (0.45%), Russell (0.25%)
- Month-to-date: Dow (0.23%), S&P (1.28%), Nasdaq (1.85%), Russell (0.2%)
- Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.36%, S&P +4.18%, Nasdaq +2.93%, Russell +4.86%
- Sector Performance: Healthcare (0.03%), Consumer Staples (0.03%), Industrials (0.09%), Energy (0.24%), Financials (0.33%), Utilities (0.35%), Materials (0.46%), Tech (0.23%), and Consumer Discretionary (1.04%)
EQUITY SENTIMENT
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -587 (-1526)
- VOLUME: NYSE 784.29 (-4.91%)
- VIX: 19.44 +8.54% YTD PERFORMANCE: +9.52%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.82 from 1.99 (-8.92%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK
Treasuries were weaker for an 8th consecutive session.
- TED SPREAD: 21.07 -1.724 (-7.567%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11% +0.02%
- 10-Year: 3.47 from 3.46
- YIELD CURVE: 2.66 from 2.67
MACRO DATA POINTS
- 9 a.m.: S&P/CaseShiller Home Price, est. M/m (-0.44%), prior (-0.41%)
- 10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence, est. 65.0, prior 70.4
- 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $40b in 4-week bills, $35b in 5-yr notes
- 4:30 p.m.: API inventories
WHAT TO WATCH
- Wal-Mart gender bias case arguments heard by the Supreme Court
- News Corp. said to be in talks to hand over control of Myspace to Vevo.com
- U.K. government hosts meeting of foreign ministers in London to resolve differences among coalition partners on Libya
- U.S. district court hearing for GM vs Allied Systems. If Allied systems doesn’t attend may be ordered to release the 1,704 vehicles being held at its facilities
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION
COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:
- Rising Corn Acreage Seen Failing to Meet Increased U.S. Feed, Ethanol Use
- Crude Oil Trades Near One-Week Low in New York as Libyan Rebels Make Gains
- Copper Declines for Fourth Day on Concern About Weakening Chinese Demand
- Gold Drops for Fourth Day on Signs U.S. Economic Recovery Is Strengthening
- Corn, Wheat Climb on Speculation Japan May Sustain Imports Following Quake
- Commodity Gains May Exceed Forecast on Japan, Middle East, Goldman Says
- Japanese Rice Imports Are Unlikely to Rise After Quake, U.S. Group Says
- Sugar Gains on Speculation About Curbed Supplies From Brazil; Cocoa Falls
- Corn, Wheat Demand in Japan ‘Resilient’ After Quake, FCStone’s Clancy Says
- Cosco Singapore Says Japan Not Major Destination for Its Dry-Bulk Carriers
- N.Z. Vegetable Exports May Increase on Japan Radiation Concern, Groups Say
- Delta Spars With Morgan Stanley on Proposal to Curb Commodity Speculation
- Copper Will Lead Base-Metals Rally on Shortage, Brook Hunt's Kettle Says
- Rio Tinto Is Said to Discuss Acquiring Riversdale Shares From Brazil's CSNws
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
MACRO DATA POINTA:
- Germany Apr GfK index 5.9 vs consensus 5.8
- France Feb Consumer Spending +0.9% m/m vs consensus +0.4%
- UK Q4 Final GDP +1.5% y/y vs preliminary +1.5%
- UK Feb mortgage approvals 46.97k vs consensus 46.0k
- European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Feb Commercial Vehicles Registrations in the EU +16.8% y/y
ASIAN PACIFIC MARKTES
Most Asian market traded lower; China was the worst performing market in the region.
MACRO: Japan February retail sales +0.1% y/y vs consensus (0.5%). Jobless rate 4.6% vs consensus 4.9%. Household spending (0.2%) m/m, matching expectations.
MIDDLE EAST
HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT KEY LEVELS
Howard Penney
Managing Director