THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 29, 2011

We are looking at the short end of the yield curve to tell us where the political wind is blowing – that’s where the politicization is – and we’re seeing a huge move higher in 2yr yields here, implying no Quantitative Guessing III (QG3).

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -1.39% downside to 1292 and 0.98% upside to 1323.

PERFORMANCE                 

As of the close yesterday we have 5 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 8 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The XLU is the only sector to be broken on both TRADE and TREND. 

  • One day: Dow (0.19%), S&P (0.27%), Nasdaq (0.45%), Russell (0.25%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.23%), S&P (1.28%), Nasdaq (1.85%), Russell (0.2%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.36%, S&P +4.18%, Nasdaq +2.93%, Russell +4.86%
  • Sector Performance: Healthcare (0.03%), Consumer Staples (0.03%), Industrials (0.09%), Energy (0.24%), Financials (0.33%), Utilities (0.35%), Materials (0.46%), Tech (0.23%), and Consumer Discretionary (1.04%)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING GLOBAL

EQUITY SENTIMENT

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -587 (-1526)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 784.29 (-4.91%)
  • VIX:  19.44 +8.54% YTD PERFORMANCE: +9.52%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.82 from 1.99 (-8.92%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK

Treasuries were weaker for an 8th consecutive session.

  • TED SPREAD: 21.07 -1.724 (-7.567%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11% +0.02%
  • 10-Year: 3.47 from 3.46
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.66 from 2.67

MACRO DATA POINTS

  • 9 a.m.: S&P/CaseShiller Home Price, est. M/m (-0.44%), prior (-0.41%)
  • 10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence, est. 65.0, prior 70.4
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $40b in 4-week bills, $35b in 5-yr notes
  • 4:30 p.m.: API inventories  

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Wal-Mart gender bias case arguments heard by the Supreme Court
  • News Corp. said to be in talks to hand over control of Myspace to Vevo.com
  • U.K. government hosts meeting of foreign ministers in London to resolve differences among coalition partners on Libya
  • U.S. district court hearing for GM vs Allied Systems. If Allied systems doesn’t attend may be ordered to release the 1,704 vehicles being held at its facilities

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Rising Corn Acreage Seen Failing to Meet Increased U.S. Feed, Ethanol Use
  • Crude Oil Trades Near One-Week Low in New York as Libyan Rebels Make Gains
  • Copper Declines for Fourth Day on Concern About Weakening Chinese Demand
  • Gold Drops for Fourth Day on Signs U.S. Economic Recovery Is Strengthening
  • Corn, Wheat Climb on Speculation Japan May Sustain Imports Following Quake
  • Commodity Gains May Exceed Forecast on Japan, Middle East, Goldman Says
  • Japanese Rice Imports Are Unlikely to Rise After Quake, U.S. Group Says
  • Sugar Gains on Speculation About Curbed Supplies From Brazil; Cocoa Falls
  • Corn, Wheat Demand in Japan ‘Resilient’ After Quake, FCStone’s Clancy Says
  • Cosco Singapore Says Japan Not Major Destination for Its Dry-Bulk Carriers
  • N.Z. Vegetable Exports May Increase on Japan Radiation Concern, Groups Say
  • Delta Spars With Morgan Stanley on Proposal to Curb Commodity Speculation
  • Copper Will Lead Base-Metals Rally on Shortage, Brook Hunt's Kettle Says
  • Rio Tinto Is Said to Discuss Acquiring Riversdale Shares From Brazil's CSNws

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

MACRO DATA POINTA:

  • Germany Apr GfK index 5.9 vs consensus 5.8
  • France Feb Consumer Spending +0.9% m/m vs consensus +0.4%
  • UK Q4 Final GDP +1.5% y/y vs preliminary +1.5%
  • UK Feb mortgage approvals 46.97k vs consensus 46.0k
  • European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Feb Commercial Vehicles Registrations in the EU +16.8% y/y

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING EURO

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING EURO

 

ASIAN PACIFIC MARKTES


Most Asian market traded lower; China was the worst performing market in the region. 

MACRO: Japan February retail sales +0.1% y/y vs consensus (0.5%). Jobless rate 4.6% vs consensus 4.9%. Household spending (0.2%) m/m, matching expectations.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - BEST PERFORMING ASIA

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - WORST PERFORMING ASIA

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT KEY LEVELS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - setup

Howard Penney

Managing Director