THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 28 2011


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or -2.34% downside to 1283 and 0.70% upside to 1323.

 

PERFORMANCE:

               

As of the close yesterday we have 6 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The three sectors that remain Broken on TRADE are Financials, Technology and Utilities.   

  • One day: Dow +0.41%, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.24%, Russell +0.83%
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.05%), S&P (1.01%), Nasdaq (1.41%), Russell +0.05%
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.55%, S&P +4.47%, Nasdaq +3.40%, Russell +5.13%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.90%, Materials +0.54%, Industrials +0.35%, Healthcare +0.28%, Consumer Discretionary +0.18%, Financials +0.28%, Tech +0.24%, Consumer Staples +0.00% and Utilities -0.03%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 939 (+2)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 824.83 (-5.26%)
  • VIX:  17.91 -0.50% YTD PERFORMANCE: +0.90%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.99 from 2.33 (-10.59%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were weaker for a seventh day despite significant MACRO headwinds.

  • TED SPREAD: 22.89 +0.153 (0.672%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
  • 10-Year: 3.46 from 3.42
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.67 from 2.70

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal income, est. 0.4%, prior 1.0%
  • 10 a.m.: Pending home sales, est. M/m 0.0%, prior (-2.8%)
  • 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, est. 17.6, prior 17.5
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections (corn, wheat, soybeans)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $32b in 3-mo. bills, $30b in 6-mo. bills
  • 12:40 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart to speak on U.S. economy in Atlanta
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $35b in 2-year notes
  • 3:40 p.m./4 p.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks in South Carolina
  • 6 p.m.: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Libyan rebel forces advance westward with support from NATO air strikes targeting Sirte, Muammar Qaddafi’s hometown hours after the Western alliance agrees to take command of military operations from the U.S.
  • The highest radiation levels so far at the crippled nuclear Japanese power plant may have come from a meltdown of nuclear fuel 
  • Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva may call early elections for June 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 359.57 +0.30% YTD: +8.04%  
  • Oil: 105.40 -0.19%; YTD: +12.20% (trading +0.48% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 441.90 -0.12%; YTD: -2.15% (trading -1.66% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,428.75 -0.34%; YTD: -0.18% (trading -0.90% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Rice Planting in Fukushima May Be Abandoned Amid Soil Tainted by Radiation
  • Cotton Rally Peaking as Record Crop Means First Stockpile Gain Since 2007
  • Commodities Retreat for Second Day on Japanese Radiation, Merkel's Setback
  • Oil Drops for a Third Day in New York Following Victories By Libyan Rebels
  • Aluminum Stockpiles Climb on Two Locations as Demand Rising: Chart of Day
  • Copper Falls Most in Two Weeks as Japanese Carmakers May Suspend Activity
  • Wheat, Corn Gain as Japan May Boost Imports Amid Radioactive Contamination
  • Gold Declines on Rally to Record Price, Signs of Improving Economy in U.S.
  • Cocoa May Gain as Ivory Coast Unrest Heightens Shortage Risk; Coffee Falls
  • Qaddafi Has $7 Billion of Bullion to Fund War Against Rebels: Chart of Day
  • Mugabe Vows to Force Foreign Mining Companies  to Sell Stakes in Zimbabwe
  • Posco Extends Gains After Saying It May Raise Steel Prices as Costs Climb
  • Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Bets on Gas Most in Three Months: Energy Markets
  • Corn, Soybeans May Climb This Week on Stockpile Speculation, Survey Showss

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4088 -0.70% (trading -0.27% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.217 0.74% (trading +0.18% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


According to the Hedgeye models both the FTSE and the DAX remain bearish from an intermediate-term TREND perspective; this is new.  No major MACRO events today.

  • United Kingdom: +0.10%
  • Germany: -0.16%
  • France: +0.12%
  • Spain: +0.18%
  • Greece -0.36%
  • Italy: +0.10%

ASIAN MARKTES:


Japan down overnight and has at least another -8.5% downside from here; China remains bullish, up for the 6th of last 7 days.  We are currently long CAF.      

  • Japan: -0.60%
  • Hang Seng: -0.39%
  • Australia -0.19%
  • China: +0.21%
  • India: +0.68%
  • Taiwan: -0.67%
  • South Korea +0.11%

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

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