TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 28 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 40 points or -2.34% downside to 1283 and 0.70% upside to 1323.




As of the close yesterday we have 6 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The three sectors that remain Broken on TRADE are Financials, Technology and Utilities.   

  • One day: Dow +0.41%, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.24%, Russell +0.83%
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.05%), S&P (1.01%), Nasdaq (1.41%), Russell +0.05%
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.55%, S&P +4.47%, Nasdaq +3.40%, Russell +5.13%
  • Sector Performance: Energy +0.90%, Materials +0.54%, Industrials +0.35%, Healthcare +0.28%, Consumer Discretionary +0.18%, Financials +0.28%, Tech +0.24%, Consumer Staples +0.00% and Utilities -0.03%




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 939 (+2)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 824.83 (-5.26%)
  • VIX:  17.91 -0.50% YTD PERFORMANCE: +0.90%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.99 from 2.33 (-10.59%)


Treasuries were weaker for a seventh day despite significant MACRO headwinds.

  • TED SPREAD: 22.89 +0.153 (0.672%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.09%
  • 10-Year: 3.46 from 3.42
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.67 from 2.70


  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Personal income, est. 0.4%, prior 1.0%
  • 10 a.m.: Pending home sales, est. M/m 0.0%, prior (-2.8%)
  • 10:30 a.m.: Dallas Fed Manufacturing, est. 17.6, prior 17.5
  • 11 a.m.: Export inspections (corn, wheat, soybeans)
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $32b in 3-mo. bills, $30b in 6-mo. bills
  • 12:40 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart to speak on U.S. economy in Atlanta
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $35b in 2-year notes
  • 3:40 p.m./4 p.m.: Fed’s Evans speaks in South Carolina
  • 6 p.m.: Fed’s Rosengren speaks in Boston


  • Libyan rebel forces advance westward with support from NATO air strikes targeting Sirte, Muammar Qaddafi’s hometown hours after the Western alliance agrees to take command of military operations from the U.S.
  • The highest radiation levels so far at the crippled nuclear Japanese power plant may have come from a meltdown of nuclear fuel 
  • Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva may call early elections for June 


  • CRB: 359.57 +0.30% YTD: +8.04%  
  • Oil: 105.40 -0.19%; YTD: +12.20% (trading +0.48% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 441.90 -0.12%; YTD: -2.15% (trading -1.66% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,428.75 -0.34%; YTD: -0.18% (trading -0.90% in the AM)  


  • Rice Planting in Fukushima May Be Abandoned Amid Soil Tainted by Radiation
  • Cotton Rally Peaking as Record Crop Means First Stockpile Gain Since 2007
  • Commodities Retreat for Second Day on Japanese Radiation, Merkel's Setback
  • Oil Drops for a Third Day in New York Following Victories By Libyan Rebels
  • Aluminum Stockpiles Climb on Two Locations as Demand Rising: Chart of Day
  • Copper Falls Most in Two Weeks as Japanese Carmakers May Suspend Activity
  • Wheat, Corn Gain as Japan May Boost Imports Amid Radioactive Contamination
  • Gold Declines on Rally to Record Price, Signs of Improving Economy in U.S.
  • Cocoa May Gain as Ivory Coast Unrest Heightens Shortage Risk; Coffee Falls
  • Qaddafi Has $7 Billion of Bullion to Fund War Against Rebels: Chart of Day
  • Mugabe Vows to Force Foreign Mining Companies  to Sell Stakes in Zimbabwe
  • Posco Extends Gains After Saying It May Raise Steel Prices as Costs Climb
  • Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Bets on Gas Most in Three Months: Energy Markets
  • Corn, Soybeans May Climb This Week on Stockpile Speculation, Survey Showss


  • EURO: 1.4088 -0.70% (trading -0.27% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.217 0.74% (trading +0.18% in the AM) 


According to the Hedgeye models both the FTSE and the DAX remain bearish from an intermediate-term TREND perspective; this is new.  No major MACRO events today.

  • United Kingdom: +0.10%
  • Germany: -0.16%
  • France: +0.12%
  • Spain: +0.18%
  • Greece -0.36%
  • Italy: +0.10%


Japan down overnight and has at least another -8.5% downside from here; China remains bullish, up for the 6th of last 7 days.  We are currently long CAF.      

  • Japan: -0.60%
  • Hang Seng: -0.39%
  • Australia -0.19%
  • China: +0.21%
  • India: +0.68%
  • Taiwan: -0.67%
  • South Korea +0.11%



Howard Penney

Managing Director



Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more