This note was originally published at 8am on March 18, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.
“The bureaucrats do not understand the quasi-automatic system of the market.”
If you are bullish on Big Government Bureaucrats intervening in free markets, this morning is going to put a gigantic smile on your face. Overnight, the overlords of the G-7 intervened in currency markets in a way like they haven’t in over a decade – Central Planners of the world unite!
To be crystal clear on my view of the US Equity market, in the last 48 hours I have called it a Short Covering Opportunity. That’s a lot different than saying “buy-de-dip” or “buy-the-crash.” I do not want any part of being grossly exposed to riding these Bureaucrat Bulls or the Japanese Government pushing their debt over the QUADRILLION mark this morning (that’s ¥1,010,000,000,000,000).
The aforementioned quote comes from page 109 of Henry Hazlitt’s classic risk management book “Economics In One Lesson.” I’ve cited Hazlitt in 3 of our 5 Early Look notes this week because I think we need to get back to basics. Hazlitt wrote this book in 1946 and I suggest the talking heads of the Keynesian Kingdom take the time to read it. It’s time to get out of your textbooks boys and wake up to how bid-ask spreads work in the real world.
Not only do bureaucrats in the G-7 like US Treasury Secretary Geithner not get how Global Macro markets have become increasingly interconnected since 1946, they Perpetuate The Price Volatility in global markets by intervening in them.
“… they are always disturbed by it… they are always trying to improve it or correct it, usually in the interests of some wailing pressure group.”
-Henry Hazlitt (1946)
Now I don’t think it’s fair to lop everyone who has been bullish on Global Equity markets since the beginning of the year into a big bucket of being bullish on bureaucrats. I’m pretty sure most of our clients wouldn’t let a government person touch the P&L of their assets under management with a ten-foot Madoff pole. But they do try to front-run what these central planners are going to try next – that’s smart.
What’s not smart is being Timmy… sitting there in Washington’s “markets room” not thinking he is being gamed…
The problem with this global game of Gaming The Government is that it super-imposes massive correlation-risk into our markets. There is no greater impact a Fiat Fool in DC can have on global currency, commodity, and equity markets than by intervening in some way, shape, or form in the US Dollar. Almost everything that matters trades either in US Dollars or relative to a basket of US Dollars – both are burning.
Rather than confusing Geithner’s political skills with market ignorance, let’s run through some correlation math for his “markets” guys:
- The Debauchery = yesterday the US Dollar Index was DOWN -1% (down -7.5% since hope was lost in JAN of deficit/debt reform)
- The Inflation = Yesterday the CRB Commodities Index was UP +3% (up +7% since January after the USD lost its bid)
- The Correlation = USD and Commodity Inflation have an inverse-correlation of -0.81
Don’t worry Timmy, I’m not geek-ing out on you and diving deep into the tapestry of my multi-factor, multi-duration, model that’s built on the principles of Chaos and Complexity Theory. I’m keeping this point very simple so that the next time you look into the camera under oath you can improve upon your storytelling performance. The Chinese are watching.
If The Bernank absolves himself from all accountability pertaining to America’s Burning Buck, and Timmy wouldn’t know a strong US Dollar policy if it smacked him upside the head like a Chinese 50bps rate hike this morning, who on God’s good centrally planned earth is going to get this right?
Suffice it to say, I think you could win the Presidency of the United States of America by explaining that burning our currency at the stake and perpetually intervening in our markets is bad – very bad – for the long term prosperity of the American people.
That’s all I have to say about that…
What am I going to do about this frightening level of blind faith in Big Government Intervention this morning? I’m going to sell and raise my asset allocation to CASH again. I have no patience for this. I don’t trust these people. And I refuse to put my family and firm in the palm of their centrally planned hands.
Like I said, there are still plenty a stock market bull that is not a Bureaucrat Bull, and the bears are chasing them down too. For 2011 YTD, the average and median percentage change in the 65 global equity markets and nine S&P sectors we track has been (-1.3%) and (-1.1%), respectively. Only 38% of countries currently register a positive gain. I know – “bull market”…
What would get me bullish on US Equities?
- Stop Burning The Buck
- Deflate The Inflation
- Get me a bull market in Fiscal Conservatism
And, yes, I get it. That’s what I want for me. And the market doesn’t care about me. So while the Keynesian Kingdom of 1970s ghosts past move towards planning for Quantitative Guessing Part III, the best I can do is trade these markets with the Price Volatility these bureaucrats perpetuate.
My immediate-term support and resistance lines for WTI crude oil are $96.92 and $103.01, respectively. My immediate-term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1254 and 1295, respectively.
Have a great weekend and best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer