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THE M3: SIDE-BETTING; MACAU FEB VISITORS; S'PORE INFLATION; IMPORTED LABOUR; GRAND LAPA

The Macau Metro Monitor, March 23, 2011

 

 

SIDE-BETTING 'JUST SPECULATION' Macau Daily Times

US consul general for HK and Macau, Stephen Young, said that the claim made by the US Department of State of illegal side-betting in Macau being 10x higher than GGR is "just speculation or a guess".  “I’m not an expert. I can’t give you any more [information] on this idea that there is a lot of side-betting. I also read that a lot of this side-betting is maybe done off-shore, not in Macau,” he added.

 

Regarding junkets, Young commented, “I still find the whole junkets business a little puzzling. I don’t quite understand how they manage to bring Renminbi here. If the gamblers win, everything’s fine. If they lose, I wonder how they pay off that debt.”


MACAU VISITOR ARRIVALS FOR FEBRUARY 2011 DSEC

Total visitor arrivals increased by 5.2% YoY to 2,164,249 in February 2011.  Visitors from Mainland China rose by 5.1% YoY to 1,204,301.  Those traveling to Macau under the Individual Visit Scheme totaled 580,415, up 0.2% YoY.  Visitors from Hong Kong (657,355), Republic of Korea (39,332) and Japan (32,081) increased by 7.3%, 42.5% and 13.3% respectively, while those from Taiwan (86,293) decreased by 13.8%.

 

THE M3: SIDE-BETTING; MACAU FEB VISITORS; S'PORE INFLATION; IMPORTED LABOUR; GRAND LAPA - macau1

 

SINGAPORE'S INFLATION UP 5% YOY IN FEBRUARY Channel News Asia

Spore's February CPI rose by 5%, versus market expectations for a rise of 5.4%.  Core inflation measure, which is tracked by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) rose 1.8% YoY, versus 2.0% in January.  Costs of transport, housing and food rose slower than expected.

 

BIG JUMP IN IMPORTED LABOUR macaubusiness.com

In January 2011, the total number of non-resident workers in Macau stood at 77,900, an increase of almost 2,100 workers in just one month.

 

GRAND LAPA TO GO UNDER MAJOR RENOVATION macaubusiness.com

According to Vincent Studer, executive assistant manager of the Grand Lapa hotel, the Grand Lapa will undergo a major renovation project, including a face lift of the Tung Yee Heen restaurant.  Grand Lapa is part of Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau and is managed by the Mandarin Oriental group.


CHART OF THE DAY: Is the Keynesian Kingdom Running Out of Steam?

 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Is the Keynesian Kingdom Running Out of Steam? -  chart


Bureaucrat Bulls

This note was originally published at 8am on March 18, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“The bureaucrats do not understand the quasi-automatic system of the market.”

-Henry Hazlitt

 

If you are bullish on Big Government Bureaucrats intervening in free markets, this morning is going to put a gigantic smile on your face. Overnight, the overlords of the G-7 intervened in currency markets in a way like they haven’t in over a decade – Central Planners of the world unite!

 

To be crystal clear on my view of the US Equity market, in the last 48 hours I have called it a Short Covering Opportunity. That’s a lot different than saying “buy-de-dip” or “buy-the-crash.” I do not want any part of being grossly exposed to riding these Bureaucrat Bulls or the Japanese Government pushing their debt over the QUADRILLION mark this morning (that’s ¥1,010,000,000,000,000).

 

The aforementioned quote comes from page 109 of Henry Hazlitt’s classic risk management book “Economics In One Lesson.” I’ve cited Hazlitt in 3 of our 5 Early Look notes this week because I think we need to get back to basics. Hazlitt wrote this book in 1946 and I suggest the talking heads of the Keynesian Kingdom take the time to read it. It’s time to get out of your textbooks boys and wake up to how bid-ask spreads work in the real world.

 

Not only do bureaucrats in the G-7 like US Treasury Secretary Geithner not get how Global Macro markets have become increasingly interconnected since 1946, they Perpetuate The Price Volatility in global markets by intervening in them.

 

“… they are always disturbed by it… they are always trying to improve it or correct it, usually in the interests of some wailing pressure group.”

-Henry Hazlitt (1946)

 

Now I don’t think it’s fair to lop everyone who has been bullish on Global Equity markets since the beginning of the year into a big bucket of being bullish on bureaucrats. I’m pretty sure most of our clients wouldn’t let a government person touch the P&L of their assets under management with a ten-foot Madoff pole. But they do try to front-run what these central planners are going to try next – that’s smart.

 

What’s not smart is being Timmy… sitting there in Washington’s “markets room” not thinking he is being gamed…

 

The problem with this global game of Gaming The Government is that it super-imposes massive correlation-risk into our markets. There is no greater impact a Fiat Fool in DC can have on global currency, commodity, and equity markets than by intervening in some way, shape, or form in the US Dollar. Almost everything that matters trades either in US Dollars or relative to a basket of US Dollars – both are burning.

 

Rather than confusing Geithner’s political skills with market ignorance, let’s run through some correlation math for his “markets” guys:

  1. The Debauchery = yesterday the US Dollar Index was DOWN -1% (down -7.5% since hope was lost in JAN of deficit/debt reform)
  2. The Inflation = Yesterday the CRB Commodities Index was UP +3% (up +7% since January after the USD lost its bid)
  3. The Correlation = USD and Commodity Inflation have an inverse-correlation of -0.81

Don’t worry Timmy, I’m not geek-ing out on you and diving deep into the tapestry of my multi-factor, multi-duration, model that’s built on the principles of Chaos and Complexity Theory. I’m keeping this point very simple so that the next time you look into the camera under oath you can improve upon your storytelling performance. The Chinese are watching.

 

If The Bernank absolves himself from all accountability pertaining to America’s Burning Buck, and Timmy wouldn’t know a strong US Dollar policy if it smacked him upside the head like a Chinese 50bps rate hike this morning, who on God’s good centrally planned earth is going to get this right?

 

Suffice it to say, I think you could win the Presidency of the United States of America by explaining that burning our currency at the stake and perpetually intervening in our markets is bad – very bad – for the long term prosperity of the American people.

 

That’s all I have to say about that…

 

What am I going to do about this frightening level of blind faith in Big Government Intervention this morning? I’m going to sell and raise my asset allocation to CASH again. I have no patience for this. I don’t trust these people. And I refuse to put my family and firm in the palm of their centrally planned hands.

 

Like I said, there are still plenty a stock market bull that is not a Bureaucrat Bull, and the bears are chasing them down too. For 2011 YTD, the average and median percentage change in the 65 global equity markets and nine S&P sectors we track has been (-1.3%) and (-1.1%), respectively. Only 38% of countries currently register a positive gain. I know – “bull market”…

 

What would get me bullish on US Equities?

  1. Stop Burning The Buck
  2. Deflate The Inflation
  3. Get me a bull market in Fiscal Conservatism

And, yes, I get it. That’s what I want for me. And the market doesn’t care about me. So while the Keynesian Kingdom of 1970s ghosts past move towards planning for Quantitative Guessing Part III, the best I can do is trade these markets with the Price Volatility these bureaucrats perpetuate.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance lines for WTI crude oil are $96.92 and $103.01, respectively. My immediate-term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1254 and 1295, respectively.

 

Have a great weekend and best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Bureaucrat Bulls - Chart of the Day

 

Bureaucrat Bulls - Virtual Portfolio


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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 23, 2011

 

Despite a 16.9 % drop in the VIX over the past week, Egypt, Ireland and Portugal are vivid reminders today that the sovereign debt and geo-political risks are not going away.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 33 points or -1.30% downside to 1277 and +1.25% upside to 1310.

 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 7 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Berlin
  • MBA mortgage applications index rose 2.7% week ended March 18.  Purchases, refis also both up 2.7%
  • 10 a.m.: New home sales, est. 290k, up 2.1%, prior 284k, down 12.6%
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $5b 56-day cash management bills
  • 12 noon: Bernanke to speak in San Diego   

TODAY’S WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Goldman Chairman Blankfein to be called by U.S. prosecutors to testify as government witness at Raj Rajaratnam’s insider-trading trial as early as this week
  • Allies prepare to attack Qaddafi’s ground forces as the U.S. and its partners try to resolve disputes over who will take over command
  • AirTran holders vote on Southwest takeover offer
  • NFLX website crashes, leaving more than 20m subscribers unable to order films, service later restored
  • Syrian forces clash with protesters killing four people

PERFORMANCE:


The only two sectors that are positive on both TRADE and TREND are Energy and Consumer Staples. 

  • One day: Dow (0.15%), S&P (0.36%), Nasdaq (0.31%), Russell 2000 (0.54%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (1.70%), S&P (2.52%), Nasdaq (3.54%), Russell (1.80%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +3.81%, S&P +2.87%, Nasdaq +1.17%, Russell +3.19%
  • Sector Performance Industrials (0.80%), Consumer Disc (0.79%), Financials (0.53%), Energy (0.22%), Consumer Spls (0.14%), Tech (0.17%), Materials (0.23%), Healthcare (0.05%), Utilities +0.14%.  

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -458 (-2375)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 823.85 (-17.80%)
  • VIX:  20.21 -1.94% YTD PERFORMANCE: +13.86%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.98 from 2.00 (-0.86%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were mostly weaker for a fourth-straight session, though the long-end outperformed.

  • TED SPREAD: 21.98 -0.304 (-1.366%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10%  
  • 10 Yr: 3.34 from 3.34     
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.66 from 2.67

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 356.45 +0.91% YTD: +7.11%  
  • Oil: 104.97 +1.82%; YTD: +12.94% (trading +0.39% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 431.30 +0.63%; YTD: -1.35% (trading +1.51% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,426.43 -0.06%; YTD: +0.97% (trading +0.49% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Thailand Planning Fewer Rice Harvests in Pest Fight Means Drop in Exports
  • Crude Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as Alliance Prepares Attacks in Libya
  • Copper Rises for Second Day as Inventory Orders Feed Shortfall Speculation
  • Gold Climbs as Middle East Turbulence and European Debt Crisis Fuel Demand
  • Coffee-Belt Drought in Vietnam May Ease in May on Rains, Forecaster Says
  • China May Match India as World's Biggest Gold Consumer on Investor Demand
  • Wheat Demand in Japan Not Hurt by Earthquake, Agriculture Ministry Says
  • Lead Futures in Shanghai Priced at 18,350 Yuan for First Day of Trading
  • Norwegian, Asian Fish Companies May Benefit From Japan's Radiation Scare
  • U.S. Bans Japan Milk, Fruit Imports From Areas Near Leaking Nuclear Plant
  • Global Dairy Prices May Drop as Record Rally Erodes Demand, Fonterra Warns
  • Palm Oil Production in Malaysia to Increase This Year, Central Bank Sayss

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.4218 -0.04% (trading -0.25%% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 75.434 +0.04% (trading +0.09% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


European stocks are higher, led by Austria and the Netherlands.  Egypt fell 8.97% to lowest level since May 2009, as trading resumes following two-month suspension.

BOE minutes; BOE voted 6-3 to hold rate in March, Dale and Weale voted for +25 bps raise, Sentance +50 bps.

 

  • United Kingdom: +0.54%
  • Germany: +0.19%
  • France: +0.37%
  • Spain: +0.25%
  • Greece +0.20%
  • Italy: +0.35%
  • Portugal -1.43%

ASIAN MARKTES:

 

Asian markets were stronger, with the exception of Japan and South Korea.  Japan fell for first time in four days after levels of radioactive iodine unsafe for infants were reported in Tokyo.

  • Japan: -1.65%
  • Australia +0.19%
  • Singapore: +0.65%
  • Hang Seng: -0.14%
  • China: +1.00%
  • India: +1.21%
  • Taiwan: +0.44%
  • South Korea -0.07%

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3 23 2011 7 21 29 AM


WHAT'S NEXT FOR OIL?: DIAL-IN & MATERIALS

Valued Client,

 

5-10 minutes prior to the 11 AM EDT start time please dial:

(Toll Free) or (Direct)
Conference Code: 117597#

 

Materials: "Click Here"

 

If the hyperlink above does not work, please copy & paste the following link into the URL of your browser:

http://docs.hedgeye.com/Whats%20Next%20For%20Oil.pdf

 

To submit questions for the Q&A, please email .


******************************************************************************

WHAT'S NEXT FOR OIL? 

 

Join Hedgeye's CEO Keith McCullough, Managing Director Daryl G. Jones, and Lou Gagliardi of our ENERGY vertical. The key questions being answered include: 

  • Why has oil been trading off in the last week? What's changed?
  • How should we think about assessing the upheaval in the Middle East as it relates to supply?
  • What are the key long term supply and demand factors to analyze as it relates to future price?
  • What are the implications for other energy markets?
  • What's next for the price of oil?
  • What are the best oil equities to play given the current environment? 

Please contact if you have any questions. 

 

Regards,

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team


Chile’s Lower Highs

Conclusion: We’re short Chilean equities ahead of consensus coming around to our intermediate-term outlook for the slope of both Chilean domestic growth and global growth – negative.

 

While the sell-side runs around like a chicken with their heads cut off recommending buying everything Emerging Markets after they’ve been tagged for the last 3-6 months, we’ll stick to the script until it changes: Growth Slowing as Inflation Accelerates. Of course there will be plenty of buying opportunities once our call gets fully priced into global equity markets; for now, however, we don’t think consensus is in the area code of Bearish Enough.

 

Much like the US, Chile is one economy where consensus gets the “accelerating inflation” component of the thesis, which is highlighted by the Chilean Central Bank being the most hawkish in the world over the last year, raising rates +350bps in response to CPI accelerating from +0.3% YoY in Feb ’10 to +2.7% YoY in Feb ’11.

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 1

 

The central bank’s recent acceleration of rate increases (from +25bps to +50bps increments) actually caught 19 of 22 forecasting economists off guard, particularly given that they tightened in the face of Japan’s crisis despite Japan being Chile’s second-largest export market. Taking their cue from the central bank, consensus’ CPI forecasts for 2011 are on the rise of late:

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 2

 

Of course there may be a time over the next year(s) when increased Japanese demand for raw materials is bullish for Chilean Exports, but for now, we will avoid the rookie trap of Duration Mismatch and play the game in front of us, which is one of slowing growth. To be specific, we expect Chilean GDP growth to top out in 1Q and rollover substantially through the end of the year alongside waning global growth fueled by structurally lower levels of Chinese, European, and US demand. Difficult comparisons in 2H11 augment this view.

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 3

 

Lastly, Chilean equities remain broken from a TRADE & TREND perspective and today’s rally up to another lower-high coincidentally closed just under our immediate-term TRADE line of resistance – a ripe shorting opportunity indeed.

 

Darius Dale

Analyst

 

Chile’s Lower Highs - 4


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