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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 17, 2011

We made a "short term bottom" call into the close yesterday, and this morning’s action in global equity, commodity, and currency markets confirms the same. Every market gets immediate-term TRADE overbought and oversold.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.07% downside to 1256 and 1.36% upside to 1274 (with upside to 1307 on a close  > 1274).

PERFORMANCE:


As of the close yesterday we have 0 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 2 of 9 sectors positive on TREND - Energy and Health-care. 

  • One day: Dow (2.04%), S&P (1.95%), Nasdaq (1.89%), Russell 2000 (1.19%)
  • Month-to-date: Dow (5.01%), S&P (5.30%), Nasdaq (5.95%), Russell (5.05%)
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +0.31%, S&P (0.06%), Nasdaq (1.36%), Russell (0.22%)
  • Sector Performance: - Tech (2.44%), Industrials (1.86%), Materials (2.01%), Financials (1.85%), Energy (1.60%), Healthcare (1.74%), Consumer Disc (1.70%), Utilities (1.57%), Consumer Spls (1.43%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1636 (+106)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1460.96 (+13.43%)
  • VIX:  29.40 +20.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: +65.63%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.52 from 1.69 (+48.45%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

Treasuries were underpinned by a pickup in flight-to-quality buying.

  • TED SPREAD: 22.58 0.101 (0.451%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.10% +0.01%
  • 10-Year: 3.22 from 3.33
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.64 from 2.70

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 8:30 a.m.: Consumer Price Index, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30 a.m.: Net export sales, commodities
  • 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 388k, prior 397k
  • 9:15 a.m.: Industrial production, est. 0.6%, prior (-0.1%)
  • 9:15 a.m.: Capacity production
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 44.5
  • 10 a.m.: Leading indicators, est. 0.9%, prior 0.1%
  • 10 a.m.: Philly Fed, est. 28.8, prior 35.9
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA Natural Gas
  • 3 p.m.: Geithner attends FSOC meeting

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • U.S. nationals urged to leave Japan amid growing fears of nuclear meltdown
  • Obama administration indicates it will vote at the United Nations tomorrow to authorize military actions and no-fly zone in Libya
  • U.S. House Republicans vote to cancel $1b in housing aid
  • Moody’s keeps negative outlook on U.S. states and local government bonds
  • Senate is expected to vote on three-week budget resolution 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 338.17 flat YTD: +1.61%  
  • Oil: 97.98 +0.82%; YTD: +6.85% (trading +1.43% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 419.75 +1.46%; YTD: -4.08% (trading +1.57% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,396.95 +0.16%; YTD: -1.16% (trading +0.37% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Soaked Midwest Soil Boosts Flood Risk for U.S. Wheat Crops, Sandbag Cities
  • Beef, Pork Production in Japan’s Eastern Region Disrupted, Ministry Says
  • Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia May Delay Rubber Shipments, Consortium Says
  • Oil Leads Commodity Advance for Second Day, Reversing Earlier Decline
  • Gold May Advance as Japanese Crisis, Turbulence in Middle East Spur Demand
  • Dry Weather May Hurt Coffee Production in Vietnam, Bolstering World Prices
  • Copper May Rise in London on Prospects for Japan Rebuilding: LME Preview
  • Glencore Loses $3.6 Billion as Mining Stocks Decline, Threatening IPO Plan
  • Japan Quake May Mean U.S. Heating Oil Price Tops Gasoline: Energy Markets
  • U.S. Feedlots Buy Fewer Cattle as Feed Costs Increase, According to Survey
  • Corn, Wheat Advance as 9.5% Price Decline Attracts Importers, Investors
  • Palm Oil Futures Decline for Second Day on Expectation Supplies to Expand

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3889 -0.63% (trading +1.04%% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.681 +0.46% (trading -1.02%% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:


No major MACRO data points were released today.  Generally, European markets are trading higher.  Austria and Ireland are the two best performing markets up over 1%.  Iceland is the worst performing market down -1.30%.

  • United Kingdom: +0.54%
  • Germany: +0.61%
  • France: +0.74%
  • Spain: +0.66%
  • Italy: +0.55%
  • Greece: +0.01%

ASIAN MARKTES:


Most Asian market traded lower, with the exception of South Korea up +0.05%. The worst performing market was the Philippines trading -1.57%.

  • Japan: -1.44%
  • Hang Seng: -1.83%
  • China: -1.14%
  •  India: -1.14%
  • Taiwan: -0.50%

Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - setup