THE VIX REVISITED

Yesterday, in the Hedgeye Daily Outlook, our risk management call out was to watch the VIX.  In it, I advised that “the VIX is going to blowout into bullish long term TAIL if it closes > 22.03; that’s not something you want to mess with if it holds.”  Since the close on Monday, the VIX is up 23.3%, trading comfortable above 22.03.

 

Looking the chart below, it is clear that the VIX could still go a lot higher from here.  Last year, during the peak of the Sovereign debt crisis, the VIX traded at 45.79.  The average of the peak VIX levels during the past 6 major crises that impacted global financial markets comes to approximately 50, which would represent 48% upside from here.

 

As we always say, risk is always on.  Clearly, events in Japan are tragic and deeply saddening.  However, the systemic risks in Japan from an investment perspective remain: demographic headwinds and staggering government debt being the most prevalent.  These risks will not go away and, if anything, the unfortunate severity of the earthquake, tsunami, and ensuing (and continuing) radiation crisis will likely increase uncertainty and heighten concerns about economic growth from here.  Furthermore, the government’s handling of the crisis is being heavily criticized, as is evident by the trend on twitter from Japanese people ordering Prime Minister Kan to wake up: #han_okiro.  Tellingly, yesterday, some users were switching to #kan_netero, meaning “Kan, stay in bed”.

 

The media is currently focused on Japan.  As is tradition, mainstream media likes to focus on one thing at a time.  As events in Japan continue to captivate viewers of the most prevalent news sources, the unrest in the Middle East continues.  The uncertainty that this wave of political agitation can bring to global markets, particularly those most closely tied to oil, is likely to cause significant volatility if regimes continue to fall.  Footage of unarmed civilians being shot at point blank range by Bahraini military forces speaks to the gravity of the situation in Bahrain at present.

 

Another small island country, Ireland, is also worth monitoring from a risk management perspective.  A tiny economy by comparison to the larger EU, Ireland’s economy is heavily burdened by a debt-laden financial sector that was 100% guaranteed by the country’s last government.  At present, the new Irish Taoiseach, or Prime Minister, is refusing to budge on EU demands to raise its corporate tax rate from its current level of 12.5% towards the European average of 23%.  As a result, Ireland is being denied its request for a reduction in the interest rate on its bailout loan from the EU/IMF.   Given the contentious nature of this issue, and the fact that a failure to reach resolution could spur contagion in the Euro zone, it is worth monitoring closely.  Our Macro conviction is that the EU is likely to kick the can down the road as debt ratios go higher and higher.  Markets applauded the European debt crisis package on Monday, to a degree, but Ireland is systemically important part of Europe’s sovereign debt conundrum and the situation could deteriorate if the current impasse between Dublin and Brussels persists.

 

Clearly, risk is always “on”, whether or not the media is focused on them at this particular moment.  The recent downgrades of Portugal and Spain by Moody’s remind us of this.  As the current crisis in Japan intensifies, questions mount as to whether or not the FED suggested yesterday that QE3 will not be needed, inflation accelerates, global growth slows (downward GDP revisions),  and the Euro-zone debt crisis looms large in the background, a melt up in volatility could be just around the corner.

 

The VIX is immediate-term overbought.  Over the intermediate term, we have the range for the VIX getting as high as $35 or $40.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

THE VIX REVISITED - shawshank


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more