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Japanese Stagflation Remains Reality...

Japan reported another 10 year high in their consumer price inflation number this morning. At +2.4% y/y, the August report remains as elevated as it was in July (see chart).

You do not want to be long an economy with a socialist government bailout policy. You do not want to be long an economy experiencing stagflation. Sound familiar?

We remain short Japan and the US via etf's (EWJ and IWM).
KM

Please Ignore The 2:19pm FL Post

In my infinite wisdom, I entered FL instead of FINL in the headline. All other info is the same.

FINL: 3.5 WEEKS NOT ENOUGH TO KILL A YEAR

Ok, I get it. Comps decelerated for the first 3.5 weeks of September. But a double digit hit to the stock? Clearly Mr. Mo had high expectations into this one. While he heads for the exit, I’m staying put fundamentally. Management’s cautious tone on the past few weeks will keep estimates low, and as noted this morning I think that FINL’s business and margins are on the upswing. I think FINL has 2 points of margin over a year, which is tough for me to find anywhere.

A couple of points to consider about the company’s tone…
  • The way I am doing the math, if I assume the first 3.5 week’s erosion carries through the quarter, and then assume very little change in the multi-year run rate, I still get to a positive comp number by 4Q and EPS better than consensus. Beyond the overly simplistic ‘extend the trend’ mindset, I’m still firm in my view that we’ll see competition heat up between the major brands over the next 12 months, which will incrementally help FINL. I’m at a 5% comp by 4Q and earnings a dime (15%) better than consensus for the year. I’ll take that at 4.1x EBITDA.
  • The trajectory of comp guidance is also noteworthy. The company had a massive miss one year ago. The tone suggested +lsd comps, and they ended coming in -4.7%. Not good. Then FINL’s business and tone about the upcoming quarter were cautious in January and April, and FINL came spot-on with plan. But then in 1Q09, FINL faced another significant deceleration after the first 3 weeks. Still reeling from wounds from a year ago (and from the past three years of pain), FINL does itself no justice in setting a high bar going into the back half.

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FL: 3.5 Weeks Not Enough To Kill A Year

Mr. Mo did not like the comp deceleration in the first 3.5 weeks of Sept. But I think FINL has 2 points of margin over a year, which is tough for me to find anywhere at 4.1x EBITDA.

Ok, I get it. Comps decelerated for the first 3.5 weeks of September. But a double digit hit to the stock? Clearly Mr. Mo had high expectations into this one. While he heads for the exit, I’m staying put fundamentally. Management’s cautious tone on the past few weeks will keep estimates low, and as noted this morning I think that FINL’s business and margins are on the upswing. I think FINL has 2 points of margin over a year, which is tough for me to find anywhere.

A couple of points to consider about the company’s tone…
  • 1) The way I am doing the math, if I assume the first 3.5 week’s erosion carries through the quarter, and then assume very little change in the multi-year run rate, I still get to a positive comp number by 4Q and EPS better than consensus. Beyond the overly simplistic ‘extend the trend’ mindset, I’m still firm in my view that we’ll see competition heat up between the major brands over the next 12 months, which will incrementally help FINL. I’m at a 5% comp by 4Q and earnings a dime (15%) better than consensus for the year. I’ll take that at 4.1x EBITDA.
  • 2) The trajectory of comp guidance is also noteworthy. The company had a massive miss one year ago. The tone suggested +lsd comps, and they ended coming in -4.7%. Not good. Then FINL’s business and tone about the upcoming quarter were cautious in January and April, and FINL came spot-on with plan. But then in 1Q09, FINL faced another significant deceleration after the first 3 weeks. Still reeling from wounds from a year ago (and from the past three years of pain), FINL does itself no justice in setting a high bar going into the back half.

Is the top for the Chinese Yuan in?

This didn't get much air time on consensus TV this morning, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t matter. The Chinese Yuan had its biggest down day since 2005.

Within the picture of the long term Yuan chart, Andrew Barber has highlighted the short term down move. The intermediate term "Trend" in the Yuan's strength is finally starting to deteriorate, and this is one of those big Queen Mary charts that the world will need to pay attention to if it were to turn.

The Chinese government cut interest rates for the 1st time this month, and as economic growth continues to slow, we do not think that the 1st cut was the last. Cutting rates should beget further weakness in the Yuan.

That would be deflationary for the world altogether. This is a movie that economic historians have seen before. It is global this time, indeed.
KM

Restaurant Industry Financing Issues

So far this week we have learned that Bank of America and GE Capital will limit new loans to franchisees. We have already articulated how this might impact the MCD franchisee community, but there are others that are clearly impacted too.

The companies that are likely impacted the most are YUM, MCD, SONC and JBX and CKR. Outside of MCD, these companies are all in the process of pursuing rather aggressive refranchising programs. In reference to its goal to reduce U.S. company ownership to below 10% by the end of 2010, YUM management said, “Obviously the credit market conditions have affected refranchising efforts, and as a result the credit markets have increased their equity requirements for the buyer. Additionally, lenders have intensified their review process, which has added time to complete certain larger transactions. In this environment, therefore, it has become more difficult to complete larger deals, so we expect our transactions this year to be skewed towards smaller deals.” And, this comment was made before this week’s announcements regarding Bank of America and GE Capital. Unfortunately, nobody is immune in this environment.

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