[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Curve / FX / Commodities

10/14/22 07:35AM EDT

Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary "Top 3 Things" note from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. This note goes out to Macro Show subscribers every morning before the 9am show. (Institutional investors receive it between 6:30-7am. To get on Keith's institutional distribution list email .) Today's Early Look will be sent separately. 

Remembering the days in 2008 when SPY would move “off the lows” (low-end of my range) like that = #fun…

  1. CURVE – don’t tell anyone who is clicking on the latest Macro Tourist headlines of the day… but the UST Yield Curve just crashed to a bone-chilling MINUS -52 on 10s/2s – that’s a new LOW for the Cycle and one the biggest signals that we’re right on this #Quad4 Recession that will last well into next year – Shorting Financials (XLF) again
  2. FX – big intraday whip on a big bs rumor about the BOE panicking (again) helped drive yesterday’s DOWN DOLLAR (up GBP/USD), UP STOCKS move – but that’s over (GBP/USD Is -0.6% after failing @Hedgeye TRADE resistance) and Gold currently has the worst immediate-term TRADE correlation to USD at -0.82
  3. COMMODITIES – I don’t know (or care) “why”, but both the CRB Index and Oil just signaled A) a BIG higher-low in my Risk Ranges and B) immediate-term TRADE breakouts. This sets up nasty for Q4 economically because we get more of a STAGFLATING #Quad4 that will keep Powell as hawked up as ever (we’re long Corn, Wheat, and GRU too)

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.63-4.05%

KM   

[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Curve / FX / Commodities - curv2

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