POSITION: no position in SPY
All 3 factors (PRICE, VOLUME, and VOLATILITY) in my core immediate-term risk management model continue to flash bearish for US Equities:
- Immediate-term TRADE resistance of 1311 wasn’t overcome on Friday
- Immediate-term VOLUME signals continue to flash very bearish (3/11’s DOWN day = +31% VOLUME study)
- Immediate-term VOLATILITY (VIX) for the SP500 continues to build upward momentum > 18.52 support
Since we’re Duration Agnostic, it’s important to expand this view to our intermediate-term duration (TREND):
- Intermediate-term TREND resistance for the SP500 remains overhead at 1343
- Intermediate-term TREND support for the SP500 remains lower at 1271
- Intermediate-term VOLUME and VOLATILITY studies support a heightening probability of a 1271 test
On a downside test of 1271, I’ll probably get longer of US Equities. I’m in a good position to do that because I’ve proactively cut my US Equity exposure (Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model) from 9% last week to 3% this morning (sold Healthcare on the open – XLV).
No one said managing drawdown risk of -5.4% is going to be easy (1). No one here was saying you should chase US Equities into their February 18th top either. Waiting and watching for risks, ranges, and spreads will be critical in the coming days.
The crowd is still too long,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer