Texas on-premise alcohol beverage tax receipts (TAP)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts monthly. In September, alcoholic beverage receipts increased 13.4% YOY. That represents an acceleration from August’s 7.4% growth. Sales were 17.7% greater than in September 2019. In Texas, bars have been mostly open with limited restrictions since October 2020. The tax receipts have been slowing since May 2022, a seasonal trend not seen in 2019.
Alcohol imports flat (STZ)
Total beverage alcohol imports grew 12% over the 12 months that ended in August. Over the last three months, imports grew 6%, Accelerating slightly from +5% in the three months that ended July.
- Imported beer grew 2% by volume and 4% by value over the last 12 months. Over the last three months, beer imports were flat by volume and grew 2% by value, similar to the three months ended in July. 80% of imported beer comes from Mexico. Constellation Brands represents a majority of Mexican beer imports and 60% of imported beer.
- Imported packaged wine for the last 12 months decreased by 9% by volume and increased by 6% by value. Over the last three months, volumes decreased by 18%, and by value decreased 5%.
- Imported packaged spirits grew 23% by value over the last 12 months. Over the last three months, volumes grew 8% and value grew 18%. That compares to 7% volume growth and 17% value growth over the three months that ended in July.
- Exported beer grew 32% by value over the last 12 months. Over the last three months, exported beer grew 29% by volume and 44% by value. Exported packaged wine fell 4% by volume and fell 4% by value over the last three months.
Constellation Brands’ shipments grew 12% for the quarter that ended June, outperforming other imported beer. Management expects shipments to match depletions for the remainder of the year.
fewer Flu shots (PRGO)
According to the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, 49% of U.S. adults plan to get a flu shot this season. More Americans (58%) plan to mask at least sometimes rather than get the flu shot. 20% of those at higher risk for influenza-related complications do not plan on getting a flu shot. In recent years the flu vaccination rate for adults was in the low 40% range but reached 48.4% in 2019-2020 with those over 65% reaching 69.8%. Last year the vaccination rate was 54% for U.S. adults. Based on claims data 3.7 million adults have received flu vaccinations at pharmacies and doctors’ offices as of September 10, down 21% from 4.7 million last year. Perrigo would be a beneficiary of a normal cough & cold/flu season this year.