Galaxy Macau’s opening in mid-May should force the sell side to raise Q2 estimates. Oh, and they're low for Q1 as well.
The sell side models are still projecting an April opening for Galaxy Macau (GM). In fact, one sell side research team put out a report yesterday that mentioned late March as a possibility. Galaxy announced last night a May 15 opening date for GM, which is an auspicious date in the Chinese calendar. This is a positive for MPEL as it relates to the sell side models. It is consensus among the sell siders that MPEL's City of Dreams will be hit the hardest by Galaxy Macau.
We are already way above the Street for 1Q and 2Q, approximately 16% higher for EBITDA in both quarters.
The Macau Metro Monitor, March 10, 2011
GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT: NEW MACAU PROPERTY GRAND OPENING MAY 15 WSJ
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd said Galaxy Macau will open May 15, 2011 with 450 tables, 2,200 hotel rooms and +50 F&B outlets. Chairman Francis Lui said Galaxy will apply to the government to host more gaming tables (room for 150 more) beyond its initial 450 "if and when necessary." It expects Galaxy Macau to be the only new resort to open in the Chinese gambling territory until "at least the end of 2011."
CHINA NEW BANK LENDING UNDER $600 BILLION YUAN IN FEBRUARY Xinhua News
Chinese banks extended less than $600 billion yuan in new loans in February. In January, Chinese banks loaned just over $1 trillion yuan.
MACAU: BORDER CHECKPOINT HOURS TO BE EXTENDED Macau Daily News
The daily opening hours of the Gongbei‐Macau border is expected to extend by 2 to 3 hours by the end of the year or early next year. The first meeting between Guangdong and Macau will be held next month, and both sides have already agreed to put the extension of immigration checkpoint’s opening hours and regulations for cars with Macau registration plates to be driven in Hengqin Island on this year’s agenda. The Macau government has indicated the ultimate aim to operate a 24‐hour border checkpoint.
The Macau government also plans to establish a joint venture with Henguin for developing the business zone. The construction of the Henguin initiative is expected to be kicked off by the end of next month. The government intends to support some high potential emerging industries and may introduce new measures to encourage gaming enterprises to develop non‐gaming businesses.
ILLEGAL WORKERS FOUND AT GALAXY MACAU'S SITE Macau Daily Times
According to the Public Security Police, Macau authorities yesterday found 23 illegal workers during a raid on the Galaxy Macau construction site.
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“I like to think that the moon is there even if I am not looking at it.”
On this day in 1973 British rock band Pink Floyd released the Dark Side of The Moon. In Hedgeye-speak, that album was multi-factor and multi-duration, focusing on the interconnectedness of the world. Money, war, and death – from time to time, these can be the dark sides of this world. Pretending that their impacts on human behavior cease to exist isn’t my view of a risk management process; neither is hope.
So far, the best strategy we can offer Global Macro Risk Managers is grounded philosophically in Chaos Theory. Some people call it Complexity Theory – mathematically speaking, Chaos and Complexity theories are pretty much the same things.
Much like Einstein’s aforementioned admission of a Dark Moon, there are some things in markets that you can’t see. But, from dark pools, to the “flows”, and inside information – it’s all there. No matter where your concept of your research “fundamentals” go, there it is – either by expectation or by the actual “news”, it’s always being absorbed into the market’s last price.
Where I used to get run-over in positions was when I considered my research on a company the center of the universe. As if Mr. Macro Market knew me and owed me something. You can go get yourself a Yale degree and draw up a “smart” looking slide presentation about your bottom-up investment thesis – and that investment strategy will be all good and fine, until it isn’t.
Usually what hits you like Big Alberta when he has you lined up at the blue-line with your head down is the macro. Or, as some bottom-up only investors like to call it, “the unknown.” Well that excuse, losing your investor’s money, and a few false teeth might get you a ride home on the bus, but it’s certainly not going to give you an entitlement to dress in the next game.
The next risk management game in a globally interconnected marketplace starts now. Like a good Chaos Theorist, you either wake up accepting that Global Macro market risk is grounded in uncertainty, or you don’t. Like the moon, Asian Growth Slowing and Greek Debt Imploding is still there this morning, even if you weren’t looking at it…
Here’s this morning’s Global Macro grind:
1. Asian Growth Slowing As Global Inflation Accelerates
-Japan revised its Q4 GDP estimate LOWER again to -1.3% (don’t forget that the US has done the same with Q4 GDP, twice)
-China reported a huge sequential slowdown in Exports for February at +2.4% (lowest level of demand since early 2009)
-South Korea raised interest rates to 3% (2nd rate hike for 2011 YTD with the #1 reason being inflation)
2. European Sovereign Debt Yields Rising As Global Inflation Accelerates
-Credit ratings being cut in Spain this morning aren’t leading indicators – and neither is the assumption that more debt will solve this
-Greek bond yields continue to rise to higher all-time highs (all-time is a long time)
-British and German Equity markets are breaking down through their respective immediate-term TRADE lines of support
3. US Growth Expectations Slowing (finally) As Global Inflation Accelerates
-US Treasury yields are finally backing off (2s down to 0.68% this morning) dulling one of the “growth signals” the bulls had in FEB
-Oil prices remain elevated and impose a significant sequential tax on US consumption growth (Q4 avg oil price = $85/barrel)
-Volatility (VIX) remains well above our intermediate-term TREND line of support (18.08) as fundamentals challenge the “flows”
So, that’s what we call The Big Stuff here at Hedgeye. And the Risk Manager strategy is to stay ahead of The Big Stuff. Whether you are looking at a company from the bottom-up or a country from the top-down, Growth Slowing as Inflation Accelerates in your cost structure definitely matters.
The Big Stuff can also morph into consensus. For example, I think The Inflation that we’ve been belaboring since October is now becoming consensus. This is where managing risk gets a lot trickier. What’s priced in? How long can consensus be right?
Here’s some more Big Stuff with potentially long-term tails:
Again, like the Dark Moon – it’s all there…
So, we’ll keep focusing on what we see in our globally interconnected risk management model, trying our best to change our asset allocation and long/short positioning as consensus changes are absorbed into market prices.
My immediate term TRADE lines of support and resistance for WTI crude oil are $102.11 and $108.71, respectively. My immediate-term lines of support and resistance for the SP500 are now 1302 and 1334, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
Notable news items/price action from the past twenty-four hours.
This note was originally published at 8am on March 07, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.
“For every promise, there is a price to pay.”
Paying The Price is what hard working Americans do every morning. They take responsibility for their families. They are accountable for their actions. They’ll also be paying for their government’s promises at the pump this morning.
If you didn’t know that The Inflation is what you get when your government promises the entire world to devalue its currency, now you know. In order to calculate the price of The Petro-Dollars look no further than the price of The Petro and the price of The Dollar.
Here’s what those two prices did last week:
Now someone who is in the business of obfuscating the facts will tell you that the price of The Petro-Dollars raging to the upside has to do with something other than the debauchery of the dollar. Of course it does – everything that adversely affects the marketing message of Washington, DC must have to do with someone else – that’s the un-American way.
Pointing the finger at some nut-job wearing shades in Libya just makes the marketing message easier. Since speaking at the American public on economic matters has turned into a world class game of politics, we should expect nothing less. On NBC’s Meet The Press yesterday, President Obama’s newly minted Chief of Storytelling, Bill Daley, reminded the world how Washington’s finest think about risk management plainly:
“Most people don’t know what they are talking about… The President knows…”
OK. Thanks Chief.
We will un-humbly submit that, on Global Macro economic matters, US Presidents and their crony economic advisors haven’t known what they don’t know for at least a decade. That’s a long time. That’s a problem.
Back to those stubborn little critters called real-time market prices that we use to illustrate the problem, here’s what else happened in the US as a result of the US Dollar being devalued last week:
Altogether what this means is that since the US stock market stopped making higher intermediate-term highs on February 18th, the market has started to price in Slowing US Growth assumptions as US Inflation Accelerates.
For readers of our work, this shouldn’t be a new theme. Our 3 core Macro Themes at Hedgeye have been calling for Global Growth Slowing as Global Inflation Accelerates since October of 2010.
Our call on Accelerating Global Inflation’s impact on both Emerging Markets and Bonds is best captured by the #1 Economics headline on Bloomberg this morning: “Global Bond Rout Resembling 1994 As Inflation Exceeds Rates” – so, globally, people get it. The question is what will it take for US stock-centric consensus to finally get it?
Don’t fool yourself by letting some of the Fed’s Fiats fool the media most of the time, whether you look at the stock market performance divergences in US Equities or abroad, Mr. Macro Market is pricing in Global Inflation Accelerating, big time.
US S&P Sector Performance divergences for 2011 YTD:
Global Equity Market Performance divergences for 2011 YTD:
Obviously when presented with these prices on a real-time basis, the fundamental takeaways are crystal clear:
If this continues, the global economic risk management scenario starts to look a lot more like the 1970s than it does anything that most investors have had to wrestle with for the last 30 years. Stocks aren’t in the area code of “cheap” if inflation finds its way into margin and multiple compression.
The best way to fight this is by breaking the gigantic promise that America has made to the world – cheap moneys forever. If we start promising the world more hawkish monetary policy, the US Dollar will stop being debauched. That, in turn, will deflate The Inflation. And I’ll be the first in line to start investing more of my 49% position in Cash (versus 58% on Monday of last week). Paying the lower price works for me.
My immediate-term support and resistance levels for the SP500 are now 1315 and 1333, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer