[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Europe / EPS / QQQ

09/16/22 07:48AM EDT

Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary "Top 3 Things" note from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. This note goes out to Macro Show subscribers every morning before the 9am show. (Institutional investors receive it between 6:30-7am. To get on Keith's institutional distribution list email .) Today's Early Look will be sent separately. 

FDX and ADBE kicked off #BlackOut Day (last day for Corporate Buybacks) with #Quad4 REV #decel Reality (now far more important than inflation)…

  1. EUROPE – what a #Quad4 mess – all of our Top 5 Signal Strength Shorts in European Equities = Italy (EWI), Germany (EWG), France (EWQ), Poland (EPOL), Austria (EWO) paying whoever had the #patience/process to re-load on them last week (GOOGL and AAPL have 30% and 24% of their respective REVENUES in Europe, don’t forget – bottom pickers got smoked in GOOGL, META, ADBE, etc. = Lower-lows)
  2. EPS – oh, so you’re REVENUES are #slowing faster than INFLATION is coming down? That’s the point in #Quad4. With most Tourists still hoping for Down Bond Yields, Down Inflation, we’re reiterating that what FDX and ADBE just did is far more important to your P&L than CPI going down 20 basis points. Q4 in particular is an extremely difficult compare due to last year’s #Quad2 GDP and REV acceleration
  3. NASDAQ – hammered yesterday (because consensus is still LONG it) and now many hedge funds are taking DOWN their GROSS EXPOSURE – that means their LOWER SHORT INTEREST consensus MEGA CAP Longs are going down while their consensus SHORTS get covered and squeezed (GS “Most Short” Basket was +0.25% on big QQQ down day… so now you can re-short those HIGH SHORT INTEREST names too)

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.20-3.51%

- KM  

[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Europe / EPS / QQQ - bund

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