Our FREE Investing Newsletter
    Get Exclusive Summer Sale Discounts

    By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. All Hedgeye products and services are subject to Hedgeye’s Terms of Service available at www.hedgeye.com/terms_of_service

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 4, 2011

Equity futures are trading above fair value in a follow-through from yesterday, which saw the Dow post its largest one-day gain since December 2010. Today's non-farm payroll number is the key catalyst, with consensus at +190K for February.  April crude futures climbed back above $102 a barrel overnight as tension in the Middle East remains heightened and hopes fade for negotiated peace deal in Libya.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 24 points or -0.97% downside to 1318 and 0.83% upside to 1342.


  • 8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payrolls: est. +196k, prior 36k
  • 8:30 a.m.: Unemployment rate: est. 9.1%, prior 9.0%
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Yellen speaks on international system in Paris
  • 10 a.m.: Fed’s Nelson testifies on TALF liquidity facility
  • 10 a.m.: Factory orders, est. +2.0%, prior +0.2%
  • 1 p.m.: Baker Hughes Rig Count


  • Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein said to agree to testify at Raj Rajaratnam’s trial, set to begin next week
  • NFL, union labor deadline extended by 24 hours to midnight
  • BP Pipelines North America may restart the Tri-States natural gas liquids pipeline
  • The U.S. DoJ is probing online video patent owner MPEG LA over antitrust concerns regarding claims against Google’s VP8: WSJ


We have 8 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  XLF is the only sector broken on TRADE.

  • One day: Dow +1.59%, S&P +1.72%, Nasdaq +1.84%, Russell 2000 +2.22%
  • Month-to-date: Dow +0.26, S&P +0.28%, Nasdaq +0.59%, Russell +0.84%
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.88%, S&P +5.83%, Nasdaq +5.50%, Russell +5.77%
  • Sector Performance: - Industrials +2.4%, Financials +2.2%, Healthcare +2%, Materials +2%, Tech +1.7%, Consumer Disc +1.7%., Energy +1.5%, Consumer Spls. +1.1%, Utilities +1%


  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1914 (+1111)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1074.11 (+4.79%)
  • VIX:  18.60 -10.14% YTD PERFORMANCE: +4.79%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.60 from 2.02 (20.75%)


Treasuries were weaker with the better global risk backdrop, upbeat economic data, rally in stocks and lingering inflation concerns.

  • TED SPREAD: 19.08 +0.203 (1.075%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.13%
  • 10-Year: 3.58 from 3.46
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.79 from 2.77


  • CRB: 360.56 +0.40%; YTD: +8.34%  
  • Oil: 101.91 -0.31%; YTD: +10.40% (trading +0.67% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 449.00 -0.18%; YTD: +2.25% (trading +1.04% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,417.69 -1.43%; YTD: -0.08% (trading +0.10% in the AM)  


  • Commodities Rise to Two-Year High as Cotton Jumps to Record, Cocoa Gains
  • Deere Courts Indian Farmers, South Korea Scouts Chicago Amid Price Rally
  • Bearish Bets on Soybeans, Cattle Surge to Two-Year High in Options Market
  • Cotton Gains to Record, Heads for Biggest Weekly Advance in Three Months
  • Coffee Rises on Speculation About Short Supply; Cocoa Reaches 32-Year High
  • Wheat Advances as Dry Weather Fans Concern About Possible U.S. Crop Damage
  • Copper Heads for First Weekly Climb in Four Before U.S. Employment Report
  • Gold May Extend Best Run of Weekly Gains Since October on Mideast Turmoil
  • Saudi Arabia May Raise Light Crude Oil Premium to Highest Since July 2008
  • Gillard Weighs Impact of Currency's Gains, Says Commodity Boom Will Endure
  • Container Shipping Shares Boom as Dry Bulk Carriers Wane: Freight Markets
  • High Food Prices May Persist as Economic Growth Boosts Demand, IMF Says
  • Ferrous Resources Said to Seek Funding for $4 Billion Iron Ore Expansion
  • Copper May Fall Next Week on Concern About Rising Inflation, Survey Shows 


  • EURO: 1.3935 +0.48% (trading +0.24% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.483 -0.25% (trading +0.01% in the AM) 


  • FTSE 100: +0.59%; DAX: +0.80%; CAC 40: +0.52% 
  • European markets advanced following strong markets in Asia and a constructive close on Wall Street on growing economic optimism and expectations for a favorable US payroll report after yesterday's better than expected jobless data.
  • Bonds continued to be pressured following ECB's Trichet hawkish comments yesterday and a growing expectation of a rate increase in the EuroZone as early as next month.
  • Hermes Reports 44% Jump in Earnings as Margins Exceed Increased Forecast
  • Daimler's Steel Headwind Saps Profit as Continental AG's Rubber Costs Soar
  • Salgado Favors Easing Greek Bailout Terms as EU Wrangles on Crisis Accord
  • Crude Heads for Fifth Weekly Gain In London on Libya Violence, U.S. Demand
  • Jet Fuel, Diesel Past $1,000 on Libya Fan Growth Concern: Energy Markets
  • Ferrous Resources Said to Seek Funding for $4 Billion Iron-Ore Expansion
  • U.K. House Prices Dropped Last Month, Erasing January Gain, Halifax Says


  • Nikkei +1.0%; Hang Seng +1.2%; Shanghai Composite +1.4%
  • Asian markets rose today in response to lower oil prices and lower-than-expected jobless claims in the US.
  • Gillard's Concern at Australia Dollar's Impact Shows 'Dutch Disease' Risk
  • Asian Stocks Advance for Fourth Day This Week on U.S. Employment Data, Oil
  • Dollar Yield Gap at 21-Month High as Prices May Spur Unrest: China Credit
  • China Forestry Ex-CEO Should Face Hong Kong Lawsuit, City's Watchdog Says
  • Korea Express Shareholders Said to Seek up to $1.8 Billion From Stake Sale
  • Record Food Prices May Persist as Economic Growth Boosts Demand, IMF Says
  • Singapore Court Rejects Former Standard Chartered Clients' Bid to Sue Bank
  • Singapore Exchange's ASX Takeover Offer Gets a Boost From Chi-X Approval
  • Chinese IPO Risk on U.S. Markets Tops American Corporations, Options Show

Howard Penney

Managing Director