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POSITION: no position in SPY 

From the vantage point of my core 3-factor model (PRICE, VOLUME, VOLATILITY), the risk/reward tells me I’m best served to continue to managing risk towards the probability of the US stock market making lower-highs.

As a reminder, here’s where the SP500 price of 1320 fits across my core 3 risk management durations: 

  1. TRADE support = 1312
  2. TREND support = 1258
  3. TAIL resistance = 1343 

Meanwhile, here’s how the Volatility Index (VIX) looks 

  1. TRADE support = 18.11
  2. TREND support = 17.74
  3. TAIL resistance = 22.02 

Convergence of TRADE and TREND durations like this in the VIX could be a very bullish leading indicator for future volatility. Fundamentally, with Global Growth Slowing as Global Inflation accelerates, that risk management scenario makes perfect sense to me. And I don’t think consensus is positioned for it.


Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Lower-Highs: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - 1