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February will finish at a new monthly record.

It looks like February Macau gaming revenues are going to exceed our recently raised estimate of HK$18.5-19.0 billion.  Last week, daily table revenues surprisingly stayed above the HK$600 million per day level.  Not much of a post CNY slowdown here.  Through the 27th, table revenues were HK$18.2 billion.  With a full month of slot revenue and 1 more day of table revenue added, total Macau gaming revenues should come in around HK$19.5 billion, a monthly record despite the shortened month. 

We think the market benefitted primarily from higher volumes, not luck.  Our sources indicate that Mass volumes were also very strong,  which is a huge positive for profitability.  February’s performance is outstanding, particularly considering the slow, pre-CNY start to the month.  The only risk we see now is if Beijing were to apply the brakes but no indication of that yet.

Market shares are shown in the table below.  The only items of note are LVS picking up some share from SJM and MPEL’s share staying elevated and likely above Street projections.